ALL ORDS went nowhere for 7 YEARS!

[tinhat]

6780

 

[dutchie]

I won't embarrass myself again after my last effort.

 

[Bill M]

6780

That's all good, added:

kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Cam019 6810
systematic 7190

Anyone else? Come on dutchie, cost ya nothing.

 

[dutchie]

That's all good, added:

kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Cam019 6810
systematic 7190

Anyone else? Come on dutchie, cost ya nothing.

ok , as long as it's costing nothing I'm going for 6420

 

[InsvestoBoy]

I used some data from FRED to do a crude valuation analysis (the data I used can be found here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hlWx).

I used two timeseries:
1. Total Share Prices for All Shares for Australia (a)
2. Total Gross Domestic Product for Australia (b)

and produced a third timeseries which is "a divided by b", the ratio between share market price and GDP as the valuation indicator.

Then I downloaded the data as a spreadsheet and calculated the future 10 year return at each point on the ratio. You can see that there is a pretty obvious and distinct valuation relationship even using such a crude measure.

When the ratio is high, the future 10 year return is generally low.
When the ratio is low, the future 10 year return is generally high.

There is a cluster of unexpected values where the ratio is low and the 10 year return is also low (circled), but I am guessing this is because the share price timeseries doesn't account for dividends and due to the general crudeness of the valuation indicator. Despite that, you can see there are *no* cases of really great long term returns unless the ratio is lower than 0.5.

But in general, when you look at the long term returns through this lens, you can see why the returns have been so stagnant, from the end of 2005 until mid 2008 the ratio was above 1 and we can conclude that the returns from 2015 until mid 2018 will therefore not be great.



For what it's worth, the ratio today is a bit greater than 1 so I would probably expect returns for the next 10 years to match the kind of low returns systematic mentioned in his post again.

 

[Bill M]

ok , as long as it's costing nothing I'm going for 6420

Thanks mate, added.

kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Cam019 6810
systematic 7190

 

[So_Cynical]

Thanks mate, added.

kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Cam019 6810
systematic 7190

Ill go 5950...Trump is an idiot after all.

 

[Bill M]

Ill go 5950...Trump is an idiot after all.

Thanks, added.

So_Cynical 5950
kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Cam019 6810
systematic 7190

 

[Logique]

On current indications I wouldn't bet against the ASF tipsters, but then 12 months is a long time in markets. And in politics, the President has plenty of political enemies, but he is great for US markets.
How bad was 2008, but silver lining, it was followed by a 10yr recovery

 

[dutchie]

Commonwealth Bank predicts 6200-6400 at end of 2018.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

I'm going to go against the consensus and say 3000.

 

[Trendnomics]

7800 - too many perma-bears on these forums.

 

[Bill M]

I'm going to go against the consensus and say 3000.

7800 - too many perma-bears on these forums.

Thanks guys, added.

InsvestoBoy 3000
So_Cynical 5950
kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Cam019 6810
systematic 7190
Trendnomics 7800

 

[Wysiwyg]

6800 as old ATH becomes resistance for awhile.

 

[Bill M]

6800 as old ATH becomes resistance for awhile.

Thanks, added.

InsvestoBoy 3000
So_Cynical 5950
kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Wysiwyg 6800
Cam019 6810
systematic 7190
Trendnomics 7800

 

[Bill M]

I am going to put in a closing time of 10 AM Tuesday the 9th of January to get your entries in. When the stock market opens that is. AEDST.

Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts and look at all the different thoughts people have. Ranges from 3000 to 7800, very interesting.

Still got time to put your entries in if anyone's interested. Thanks everyone.

 

[Value Hunter]

I will put 7000 as my guess.

 

[Bill M]

I will put 7000 as my guess.

Thanks, added.

InsvestoBoy 3000
So_Cynical 5950
kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Wysiwyg 6800
Cam019 6810
Value Hunter 7000
systematic 7190
Trendnomics 7800

 

[So_Cynical]

On current indications I wouldn't bet against the ASF tipsters, but then 12 months is a long time in markets. And in politics, the President has plenty of political enemies, but he is great for US markets.
How bad was 2008, but silver lining, it was followed by a 10yr recovery
View attachment 85537

A ten year recovery that was pump primed, the perfect set of numbers to encourage it.

 

[Logique]

Thanks, added.
InsvestoBoy 3000
So_Cynical 5950
kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Wysiwyg 6800
Cam019 6810
Value Hunter 7000
systematic 7190
Trendnomics 7800

Looks a race in three, the rest of us would need Santa Claus to visit!