ALL ORDS went nowhere for 7 YEARS!

[Joe Blow]

All done folks: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/yearly-xao-prediction-thread.34455/

I think I got all the entries. Let me know if I missed anything.

 

[Darc Knight]

I'm happy to do the excel work for this one if you like - weekly or monthly updates easy.

You sober now? 6800 lol

I thought my 4800 was a bit pessimistic, somewhere low 5000s about right. But XAO down another 1.5% so far today. Smurfs 4000 might be favourite

 

[Bill M]

I'm happy to do the excel work for this one if you like - weekly or monthly updates easy.

Great, ok then. You will only have to do one at the start and one at the end. No need to do during the year, unless you really want to. In the mean time I keep track of it, thanks.

And thanks for starting the new thread Joe.

 

[PZ99]

You sober now? 6800 lol

I thought my 4800 was a bit pessimistic, somewhere low 5000s about right. But XAO down another 1.5% so far today. Smurfs 4000 might be favourite

I forgot to mention the 3 changes of Prime Ministers was a caveat

 

[sptrawler]

New high.
https://thewest.com.au/business/markets/asx-cracks-6800-as-all-ords-hits-record-high-ng-b881271039z

From the article:
The Australian sharemarket has hit an all-time high after the all ordinaries broke through a record set more than 11 years ago.

The index rose 25.2 points, or 0.4 per cent, to hit 6888.4 at 9.40am.

The all ordinaries’ previous intra-day high of 6873.2 was reached on November 1, 2007.

 

[Bill M]

Wow, finally cracked it, thanks for the update.

As us old boys sit in a bar in SE/Asia drinking our beers this topic comes up often. So it took 11 years and 8 Months to pass our previous high. In the mean time the Dow Jones has almost doubled from it's 2007 highs.

Back to our $1 a beer San Miguels, then the conversation goes on to Donald Trump, beer bar diplomats we are. Cheers all.

 

[sptrawler]

Wow, finally cracked it, thanks for the update.

As us old boys sit in a bar in SE/Asia drinking our beers this topic comes up often. So it took 11 years and 8 Months to pass our previous high. In the mean time the Dow Jones has almost doubled from it's 2007 highs.

Back to our $1 a beer San Miguels, then the conversation goes on to Donald Trump, beer bar diplomats we are. Cheers all.

Sounds like you are having a good time Bill, $1 beers is good for the wallet, but not too good for the liver.
The good thing about hitting a new high at this time is, the banks are still down and quite a few miners, so it might be the start of bigger and better things.
I'm ever the optimist.

 

[willy1111]

I'm ever the optimist.

The election result has breathed new life into you aye

 

[sptrawler]

The election result has breathed new life into you aye

Well let's put it this way, it would be a lot more exciting ATM, if the election had gone the other way. IMO
I just wish my stock picking, was as good as my election pick.

My post on March 15th 2018, in the Is Shorten PM material, thread:

Actually silly billy, may well have just lost the unlosable election. #1023

 

[PZ99]

ASX's big churn sees 40pc of the top 100 shares disappear since the GFC

Key points:

• Of the 32 ASX 100 companies taken over since the GFC around a third ended up in foreign hands
• While the GFC sparked much of the takeover activity among weakened companies, very few were bankrupted
• The ASX top 10 is remarkably stable with seven remaining in place from 12 years ago and six from 100 years ago
• Liquidations and takeovers saw 37 of the top 100 from November 2007 drop off the ASX boards.

The 12 years it has taken the ASX 200 to regain its pre-GFC high has seen an extraordinary churn in the big end of town, with almost 40 per cent of the largest corporates disappearing.
While credit markets seized up, threatening the existence of many heavily indebted companies, perhaps surprisingly, only three of the top 100 were bankrupted.

The vast majority of the deletions were due to takeovers, by either offshore raiders or other ASX-listed businesses.

Roughly a third of the ASX 100 companies taken over since the GFC ended up in foreign hands.

The blue chips in the top 10 have proved to be a resilient bunch — six are still there, with only Westfield disappearing via a series of complex restructures and takeovers.



More about the abhorred, absorbed, adored, the floored and the moored are here > https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-01/asx-winners-and-losers-since-the-gfc/11345876

 

[PZ99]

You sober now? 6800 lol

We all will be if it falls in a heap again

 

[qldfrog]

ASX's big churn sees 40pc of the top 100 shares disappear since the GFC

Key points:

• Of the 32 ASX 100 companies taken over since the GFC around a third ended up in foreign hands
• While the GFC sparked much of the takeover activity among weakened companies, very few were bankrupted
• The ASX top 10 is remarkably stable with seven remaining in place from 12 years ago and six from 100 years ago
• Liquidations and takeovers saw 37 of the top 100 from November 2007 drop off the ASX boards.

The 12 years it has taken the ASX 200 to regain its pre-GFC high has seen an extraordinary churn in the big end of town, with almost 40 per cent of the largest corporates disappearing.
While credit markets seized up, threatening the existence of many heavily indebted companies, perhaps surprisingly, only three of the top 100 were bankrupted.

The vast majority of the deletions were due to takeovers, by either offshore raiders or other ASX-listed businesses.

Roughly a third of the ASX 100 companies taken over since the GFC ended up in foreign hands.

The blue chips in the top 10 have proved to be a resilient bunch — six are still there, with only Westfield disappearing via a series of complex restructures and takeovers.

View attachment 96512

More about the abhorred, absorbed, adored, the floored and the moored are here > https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-01/asx-winners-and-losers-since-the-gfc/11345876

Funny just read that and wanted to share.
not knowing where i choose that thread and @PZ99 beat me
Very interesting factor when system testing etc

 

[qldfrog]

The interesting point is that most did not go bankrupt but bought off usually at a premium

 

[Bill M]

Good evening all, here is the 2019 year end wrap up for the All Ords.

The XAO closed today at 6802 which was up 19% for the year. (Up 1093 Points)

This year we did crack the highs of 6873 that happened on November 1st. 2007. However, we could not sustain it. In the last 2 days we had a bit of a wipe out and lost quite a few points off the index so unfortunately the All Ords is still going nowhere for over 12 years.

That's right, we are still more than 12 years behind where the market first reached it's highs in 2007.

Anyhow, we are doing year end 2020 predictions in a separate thread. Please head on over there and put in where you think the XAO will end the year next year, thank you.
Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

 

[tinhat]

Good evening all, here is the 2019 year end wrap up for the All Ords.

The XAO closed today at 6802 which was up 19% for the year. (Up 1093 Points)

This year we did crack the highs of 6873 that happened on November 1st. 2007. However, we could not sustain it. In the last 2 days we had a bit of a wipe out and lost quite a few points off the index so unfortunately the All Ords is still going nowhere for over 12 years.

That's right, we are still more than 12 years behind where the market first reached it's highs in 2007.

Anyhow, we are doing year end 2020 predictions in a separate thread. Please head on over there and put in where you think the XAO will end the year next year, thank you.
Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

This thread should be renamed to "Total returns in the All Ordinaries went nowhere for six years then doubled over the next six years".


Source

In terms of making any sensible analysis of the Australian stock market such as any meaningful comparison of its performance against other asset classes and the stock markets of other jurisdictions, to say that "...we are still more than 12 years behind where the market first reached it's highs" is completely meaningless except as a purely technical piece of data.

I am sure this has been discussed earlier in this thread at length, but we all know that because of differing tax policies dividend payout ratios of the top weighted ASX companies are completely different to those on say the NYSE. The only way to compare apples with apples is to look at the accumulation index and if so inclined, calculate a cumulative annualised return from there.

I would assume that any sensible investor would benchmark their performance against the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index (my online portfolio management system does).

Here are the percentage total returns of the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index for 2007 to 2019:

2018, -2.8%
2017, 12.5%
2016, 11.6%
2015, 3.8%
2014, 5.0%
2013, 19.7%
2012, 18.8%
2011, -11.4%
2010, 3.3%
2009, 39.6%
2008, -40.4%
2007, 18%
source

2019 I am guessing will be somewhere around 24%, a big year in any case!

I too have thrown my hat into the ring once again for the ASX end of year tipping competition, but it is just a laugh. Using the regression line between the market bottom of 2009 to the end of 2019, the standard deviation from that line is about 700 points. So, even excluding a major market crash, such as in 2008, there is a good chance the market will fluctuate around 700 points above or below the regression line which is currently sitting at about 6450. So really, probably the only meaningful prediction that would be worthwhile making is whether the market will be up or down. Most of the predictions in the comp, including mine, are within the statistical margin of error!

Why bring up standard deviation? Because of this chart:

ibid.

Anyway, best of luck to all in the new year!

 

[tinhat]

Here is my chart of the standard deviation channel for the XAO from the 2009 bottom to yesterday's close. I meant to post this above.

 

[Bill M]

Hey @tinhat kudos to you for all your input. I am not much of a chartist so I think how the XAO performs is vital for all the people out there as simple as what I am. For those of us who buy only ETF's or LIC's it works like this. (For me anyway)

If I put xxxx dollars in when say the XAO is the level of 6,000 then that is my starting point, or cost base. After that I just hold and collect dividends. To me and to probably a lot of other simplistic investors the get in and get out point all revolves around the XAO level at the time of entry and exit. What happens in between really doesn't matter as we just hold and get those dividends to live on. (Us retirees that is).

During the last 12 years of holding an ETF that mirrors the XAO all that has happened to us was the dividends changed from 5% to 7% and now back to to around 5% again. If we bought in 2007 and got out now then we would be 100% capital gain tax neutral as there were no losses or gains. We just got paid to hold the ETF. Some of us don't (or at least I don't) re-invest dividends as that is our income.

So for us ETF investing old farts we didn't make anything over the last 12 years in capital gains and probably made an average of 6% dividends over that period of time. The accumulation index is of no importance to me, I never look at it nor do I care about it and I have never known where it has been at anytime in my investing years. Price in, price out and what do I get in between during that time , that's what matters to me, cheers.

 

[sptrawler]

Hey @tinhat kudos to you for all your input. I am not much of a chartist so I think how the XAO performs is vital for all the people out there as simple as what I am. For those of us who buy only ETF's or LIC's it works like this. (For me anyway)

If I put xxxx dollars in when say the XAO is the level of 6,000 then that is my starting point, or cost base. After that I just hold and collect dividends. To me and to probably a lot of other simplistic investors the get in and get out point all revolves around the XAO level at the time of entry and exit. What happens in between really doesn't matter as we just hold and get those dividends to live on. (Us retirees that is).

During the last 12 years of holding an ETF that mirrors the XAO all that has happened to us was the dividends changed from 5% to 7% and now back to to around 5% again. If we bought in 2007 and got out now then we would be 100% capital gain tax neutral as there were no losses or gains. We just got paid to hold the ETF. Some of us don't (or at least I don't) re-invest dividends as that is our income.

So for us ETF investing old farts we didn't make anything over the last 12 years in capital gains and probably made an average of 6% dividends over that period of time. The accumulation index is of no importance to me, I never look at it nor do I care about it and I have never known where it has been at anytime in my investing years. Price in, price out and what do I get in between during that time , that's what matters to me, cheers.

A beautiful KISS strategy Bill, which in hindsight would have been my best option, kudos to you mate.

 

[bigdog]

By comparison the 2019 US market had remarkable year

MILESTONES APLENTY: The S&P 500 has set record highs 35 times this year, up from 19 last year. The benchmark index closed above 3,000 points for the first time in September.

The Dow, which climbed above the 28,000 mark for the first time in November, has set 22 record highs this year, eclipsing the 15 it set in 2018.

The Nasdaq, which closed above 9,000 for the first time in late December, has marked 31 new highs this year, beating last year's 16 times.

TECH’S BIG YEAR: Technology stocks have helped power the broader market’s gains this year. Tech is on track to finish 2019 with a gain of about 47.5%, well ahead of the other 10 sectors in the S&P 500.

BANKING ON BANKS: Financial sector stocks, especially big banks, posted strong gains in 2019, despite a sharp pullback in interest rates.

The sector is up 28.8% for the year, while JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup are each up over 40%.

 

[Bill M]

Good evening all, here is the 2020 year end wrap up for the All Ords.

The XAO closed today at 6850 which was up .7% for the year. (Up 48 Points)

This year we did crack the highs of 6873 that happened on November 1st. 2007 but fell again due to the pandemic. We then recovered to this point, which is lower than where we were in 2007.

So now the All Ords is still a whopping 13 years behind the highs of 2007.

I don't know where the New Year Year 2021 will take us, some say a severe crash, others say it's going much higher as term deposits are paying less than 1% these days.

Anyhow, we are doing year end 2021 predictions in a separate thread. Please head on over there and put in where you think the XAO will end the 2021 year, thank you.

Yearly XAO Prediction Thread