ALL ORDS went nowhere for 7 YEARS!

[bigdog]

 

[systematic]

Looks a race in three, the rest of us would need Santa Claus to visit!

I need a 20% rally in the next 6 weeks!

 

[Struzball]

View attachment 90295

Still a bit more to go to reach last months low.

 

[Logique]

We're heading sub 5700 at the open, and that's near enough to a 2 year low!

 

[Logique]

XAO Prediction Dec 2019:
6500

 

[Lenny36]

Here is an article which says why the All Ords is below what it was before the global financial crisis. Its because of all the price rigging!

https://independentaustralia.net/po...the-unspoken-crimes-of-the-asx---part-4,12191

 

[MrChow]

GFC High 6843 with PE 14
Current 5650 with PE 15

Doesn't seem much difference for the rigging of the century.

 

[Lenny36]

GFC High 6843 with PE 14
Current 5650 with PE 15

Doesn't seem much difference for the rigging of the century.

If your PE’s are correct then I would say it is because of the vicious circle - less profits coming to people from the stockmarket= less taxes for the government to spend= less profits for the companies that rely on government and consumer spending. Wealth is being stripped no doubt about that.

 

[MrChow]

Respect your opinion welcome to the site.

 

[Bill M]

Good evening all, here is the 2018 year end wrap up for the All Ords.

The XAO closed today at 5709 which was down 7.4% for the year. (Down 458 points)

The XAO first hit this level back on January 22nd. 2007

So the XAO has gone nowhere for nearly 12 years. What a shocker!!

Several members had an educated guess/random punt of where they thought the all ords would end up and the winner is:

Drum Roll.......So_Cynical with 5950.....Well done mate!

Second was kid hustlr with 6000

And last was InvestoBoy with 3000

InsvestoBoy 3000
So_Cynical 5950
kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Wysiwyg 6800
Cam019 6810
Value Hunter 7000
systematic 7190
Trendnomics 7800

Dividend investors might have just broken even but this was not a good year generally for long term investors. So where to next year? It will be very interesting.

Cheers and Happy New Year!!
Bill M

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Well done so cynical, congratulations.

Thanks Bill M.

Yes asx a dud for 12yrs. A lot of people who set up smsf/invested many years ago and have a portfolio of top 20 or top 50 holdings would be disappointed.

A lot of these companies have become stale and need to be gobbled up.

 

[MrChow]

Title seems pretty good in comparison to:

S&P500 -80% in 13 years (1929-1942)
Nikkei -50% in 29 years (1990-2019)
Hang Seng -50% in 12 years (1972-1984)

So who knows but history shows we shouldn't discount going into the 3000s even a couple decades later.

 

[MrChow]

Longest periods it took for the ASX Total Returns to beat inflation:

1936 18 years
1960 17 years
1964 19 years
1968 17 years
1969 16 years

 

[Bill M]

Longest periods it took for the ASX Total Returns to beat inflation:

1936 18 years
1960 17 years
1964 19 years
1968 17 years
1969 16 years

Gee MrChow you are full of good news. Now how about you have a guess at where the XAO will finish at year end. With all those statistics you must have some thoughts.

 

[Bill M]

@joe, @Bill M you might want to split the 2019 XAO tips into a new thread and set a deadline for entries?



I am absolutely certain about my prediction that the XAO will reach 6780. It's the timing I'm not so sure about.

So I take it that you say 6780 by year end.

About splitting this thread, there are no prizes so I don't know if it will attract that much attention.

I still can't believe that the All Ords stood still for 12 years. I don't know, I reckon it's got to bolt soon enough. Like you I don't know when. By the way I was just looking at the only stock I hold on it's own (apart from ETF's), NAB, it hasn't gone anywhere for 20 years. But by crikey I've pulled some good dividends over that time.

 

[Joe Blow]

@joe, @Bill M you might want to split the 2019 XAO tips into a new thread and set a deadline for entries?

About splitting this thread, there are no prizes so I don't know if it will attract that much attention.

I'm happy to split the thread if that's the preferred option. The new thread could be titled, "Yearly XAO Prediction thread" or something similar and could be used each year for participants to post their predictions. Someone would have to appoint themselves as the competition organiser and would be responsible for setting deadlines etc.

Alternatively, the predictions could all be collated into one post in this thread after the deadline for entries has passed.

If someone would like to step up and take on the role of competition organiser I'm more than happy to split the thread.

 

[Bill M]

Hi Joe, thanks for getting back to us. Maybe splitting it is a good idea as both titles probably do deserve their own headings and input. So I'm happy for you to split it. Actually I like your title, simple and straight forward. "Yearly XAO Prediction Thread". I am also happy to run it but I do not use excel and I am not a pro like a few of you guys. So if everyone doesn't mind me just collating it and putting it inline in a post then I can do it. I have been doing it on this thread for a few years now anyway.

I think a fair cut off time would be Sunday the 13th Jan at 2359 Hours EDST. It gives everyone a bit of time over that weekend and before then to get their predictions in.

Then at the end of the year I would be more than happy to post back here what the XAO did actually do and who was first, second, third and last.

It could be a good fun thread, light hearted and once all the entries are in and locked anyone through the year can come in and comment.

There are a lot of long term investors out there (like myself) who do care what the XAO does. A lot of us are in ETF's. So really which ever way the XAO does move means something to us. For others it is not so important so why not just have a punt at it?

I'm happy for it to go ahead, are there any other opinions out there?

Cheers,
Bill

 

[tinhat]

@Bill M. Sounds good. Thanks.

 

[MrChow]

Longest periods for the All Ordinaries Index to go nowhere:

1890 to 1907 - 17 years
1930 to 1944 - 14 years
1962 to 1975 - 13 years
2007 to 2019 - 12 years (not out)

 

[PZ99]

Hi Joe, thanks for getting back to us. Maybe splitting it is a good idea as both titles probably do deserve their own headings and input. So I'm happy for you to split it. Actually I like your title, simple and straight forward. "Yearly XAO Prediction Thread". I am also happy to run it but I do not use excel and I am not a pro like a few of you guys. So if everyone doesn't mind me just collating it and putting it inline in a post then I can do it. I have been doing it on this thread for a few years now anyway.

I think a fair cut off time would be Sunday the 13th Jan at 2359 Hours EDST. It gives everyone a bit of time over that weekend and before then to get their predictions in.

Then at the end of the year I would be more than happy to post back here what the XAO did actually do and who was first, second, third and last.

It could be a good fun thread, light hearted and once all the entries are in and locked anyone through the year can come in and comment.

There are a lot of long term investors out there (like myself) who do care what the XAO does. A lot of us are in ETF's. So really which ever way the XAO does move means something to us. For others it is not so important so why not just have a punt at it?

I'm happy for it to go ahead, are there any other opinions out there?

Cheers,
Bill

I'm happy to do the excel work for this one if you like - weekly or monthly updates easy.