ADI - Adelphi Energy

[jancha]

Just a friendly suggestion go to the adi web site and you can get the hartley's analysis for free which will help you to DYOR.:fu:

Taxi driver in town!
What are you doing on a thread which requires some sort of intelligence?
I know about Hartley's recommendation & I know it's free.
Hence the comment.'mandreou@aae.com.au'

 

[Agentm]

indicative opening says .25 and all jvp partners have had significant sp growth over the last week on minor turnover..

thats 1/4 the way to my conservative $1 sp suggestion (that kinda made joe prick his ears up) and was based on more or less half of the uber conservative price hartleys put out on their recent (feb 2010) broker report

i am no chartist, but as an astrologer i would say all the stars are in alignment..

any chartist want to venture a comment atm?

 

[Miner]

indicative opening says .25 and all jvp partners have had significant sp growth over the last week on minor turnover..

thats 1/4 the way to my conservative $1 sp suggestion (that kinda made joe prick his ears up) and was based on more or less half of the uber conservative price hartleys put out on their recent (feb 2010) broker report

i am no chartist, but as an astrologer i would say all the stars are in alignment..

any chartist want to venture a comment atm?

Hi Agentm

Surely we look forward shiny stars for ADI today and future

But I did not realise you are an astrologer too.

Normally Cheiro and other astrologers were very good chartists to lay the horoscopes and predict. How could then you avoided not being a chartist too

 

[WRONG'UN]

Firstly, Agentm, thanks for your fantastic work on this thread - I am indebted!
I think it's a great chart - just emerging from a nice "cup and handle" pattern, the top of which is coincidentally at the important old support/resistance level of 20 cents - see attached weekly chart.
The target for the c&h breakout coincides pretty well with the earlier high at 36 cents - looks like a clear run if it can get past the top of a gap on the daily chart at 25.0c. On the way to 36c it may try to retest the 20 cent level - the gap at 25.0 cents on the daily chart may be a point for this reaction to start - no guarrantees, of course!
On balance volume is solid, particularly on the daily chart.
Overall it looks like it's early days in the chart - if it does get to $1, it wouldn't be the first time it's done it.

The charts for AUT and EKA are quite similar to ADI.
That's my five cents worth - hope it's of some use!

 

[radioham6]

indicative opening says .25 and all jvp partners have had significant sp growth over the last week on minor turnover..

thats 1/4 the way to my conservative $1 sp suggestion (that kinda made joe prick his ears up) and was based on more or less half of the uber conservative price hartleys put out on their recent (feb 2010) broker report

i am no chartist, but as an astrologer i would say all the stars are in alignment..

any chartist want to venture a comment atm?

Hi AgentM & others,

May I take this opportunity to thank you AgentM, for the research on this very stock over the life of this thread.
It's been one of the most interesting and informative threads on the forum. Well done.

I'm a holder and have only recently doubled my holding over the past weeks and agree that $1 is possible in the near future.

 

[Agentm]

Firstly, Agentm, thanks for your fantastic work on this thread - I am indebted!
I think it's a great chart - just emerging from a nice "cup and handle" pattern, the top of which is coincidentally at the important old support/resistance level of 20 cents - see attached weekly chart.
The target for the c&h breakout coincides pretty well with the earlier high at 36 cents - looks like a clear run if it can get past the top of a gap on the daily chart at 25.0c. On the way to 36c it may try to retest the 20 cent level - the gap at 25.0 cents on the daily chart may be a point for this reaction to start - no guarrantees, of course!
On balance volume is solid, particularly on the daily chart.
Overall it looks like it's early days in the chart - if it does get to $1, it wouldn't be the first time it's done it.

The charts for AUT and EKA are quite similar to ADI.
That's my five cents worth - hope it's of some use!

thanks for the kind words

it becomes apparent that there is this desire by the market to be part of the hilcorp sugarkane express that left the station week or so ago.. but its also apparent it is gaining momentum..

 

[skip9]

Sorry to be ignorant when i say this, but i have been watching this stock closely of late and it has only been going one way and that is up.

What is it about ADI that is making it such a strong stock that it continues to rise? More importantly what is the prediction among shareholders where the price will go, both long and short term?

 

[rock86]

Sorry to be ignorant when i say this, but i have been watching this stock closely of late and it has only been going one way and that is up.

What is it about ADI that is making it such a strong stock that it continues to rise? More importantly what is the prediction among shareholders where the price will go, both long and short term?

Not to be ignorant back, but have a read of the thread, ADI's announcements and what is happening on the ground with the JVP's. There's plenty of reason's ATM, so DYOR

 

[Agentm]

Sorry to be ignorant when i say this, but i have been watching this stock closely of late and it has only been going one way and that is up.

What is it about ADI that is making it such a strong stock that it continues to rise? More importantly what is the prediction among shareholders where the price will go, both long and short term?

skip

that topic has been discussed in the last day or so, just look up the page and one page back

hartleys report is in easily accessible from the adi website

hope it helps

 

[Ramblin Round]

Skip,

A few of us here are landowners on this play in Texas. I fall directly in that category and I mean "directly" in every sense of the word. We wondered for the last couple years what the big deal was around here with all these rigs. I stumbled upon this forum and immediately after reading the 200+ pages invested in this stock. I among others see with our own eyes daily what the fruition of this area holds and bask in the knowledge that ADI is in on the play at 20%.

My suggestion is to rearead the entire post twice and then revisit your own assumptions. After I rearead it twice, I wished I had found it a year ago and bought in then. The internet is a wonderful tool. Good luck to all holders. I was very, very pleased with my ADI holdings today.

 

[condog]

Hey rambling have they tapped on your door yet...

It might pay to put a sign out the front sayting land men welcome with all good offers....

Low ball offers will be shot on the spot....

Or FREE coffe and biscuits to all landmen.....get em inand pick there brains...then come tell us...

 

[nioka]

any chartist want to venture a comment atm?

.

All the charts do is record the past. The future will be guided by the results and for ADI these will in no way follow the same path as the past. Predicting the oil and gas flows is what is needed.:

 

[Speculator]

indicative opening says .25 and all jvp partners have had significant sp growth over the last week on minor turnover..

thats 1/4 the way to my conservative $1 sp suggestion (that kinda made joe prick his ears up) and was based on more or less half of the uber conservative price hartleys put out on their recent (feb 2010) broker report

i am no chartist, but as an astrologer i would say all the stars are in alignment..

any chartist want to venture a comment atm?

Hi AgentM

I acknowledge that you admit charting is not your forte. However after viewing numerous stocks SP action which have been in similar positions to ADI I could not but help but notice there is in many cases a period where (I assume) long term holders take significant prophets driving the SP down (normally for approx 2 weeks).

If we look back into ADI's history we can see this occurring in Nov 2006.
ADI was re-rated and made an impressive total gain of 300% in the months of Sep-Nov only to fall 33% over two weeks in mid Nov and then to recover 40% in the following two weeks.

I understand ADI will see semi large price fluctuations as peoples values of the stock differ, people get swept up in the 'mania' and people take profits however in your opinion will we have a similar event to that of Nov 2006 where longer term and I imagine in this case seriously longer term holders take significant profits?

And if so do you intend to trade the action?

Purely asking this out of curiosity as I have my action plan set in stone.

Disc: I hold many parcels and intend to trade only one of them as I am still very new to this but would like to utilse my 'new charting skills' and programs, plus I can imagine it will be quite thrilling. The rest of my parcels will just hold tight for the next two years or so.

I adress this to you Agent as you clearly have the best knowledge base and history with ADI however any teccies please feel free to add your

Thank you.

 

[Agentm]

speculator

i invested for the outcome of the wells adi drilled, weston kennedy and kowalik

my plan was to see that through then re evaluate based on what plans the jvp had at the time. if no plans were in place then i think my decision would be made for me.. but as adi now has a serious partner who has taken over as the operator.. well thats a real bonus dont you think?

i invest for an outcome.

when the wells are finished the plan will be somewhat different to how they looked 12 months ago... what is evident is that adi has seen the recovery of the oil prices, survived the gfc and selling an asset.. has a new farm in operator, and its obvious to me that the stunning successes in the sugarkane/eagleford in the near region needs to be considered, and in the adi acreages also.. all this has really changed the situation considerably.. all things seem to falling into the right place

some investors like adobee have declared their entry point and exit..

some are long term holders like myself

my plan is to reassess adi once the results come through. and i am sure that the conservative upside value of adi that hartleys put forward will come if the wells continue to produce as they have been.. for me that upside journey is exactly why i invested.. oddly for the upside not the downside

every investor has a different entry and exit strategy, some may share similar strategies.. we saw heavy selling by trojan s they exited mid 2009.. and speculating on what will happen in the future on the sp is just that.. speculation..

the way i view things is that people will invest at different times in a share as they see fit. some like me like the high risk high reward and invest and add as it suits.. others will wait for definitive news and invest on that plateau.. less risk reward..

great days ahead for those who understand what the potential of eagleford and sugarkane to be, and understand it to be a legitimate play.. and those understanding the economics of it will imho be well rewarded for waiting for the value to arrive in the share..

best of luck to all holders..

 

[Miner]

speculator

i invested for the outcome of the wells adi drilled, weston kennedy and kowalik

my plan was to see that through then re evaluate based on what plans the jvp had at the time. if no plans were in place then i think my decision would be made for me.. but as adi now has a serious partner who has taken over as the operator.. well thats a real bonus dont you think?

i invest for an outcome.

when the wells are finished the plan will be somewhat different to how they looked 12 months ago... what is evident is that adi has seen the recovery of the oil prices, survived the gfc and selling an asset.. has a new farm in operator, and its obvious to me that the stunning successes in the sugarkane/eagleford in the near region needs to be considered, and in the adi acreages also.. all this has really changed the situation considerably.. all things seem to falling into the right place

some investors like adobee have declared their entry point and exit..

some are long term holders like myself

my plan is to reassess adi once the results come through. and i am sure that the conservative upside value of adi that hartleys put forward will come if the wells continue to produce as they have been.. for me that upside journey is exactly why i invested.. oddly for the upside not the downside

every investor has a different entry and exit strategy, some may share similar strategies.. we saw heavy selling by trojan s they exited mid 2009.. and speculating on what will happen in the future on the sp is just that.. speculation..

the way i view things is that people will invest at different times in a share as they see fit. some like me like the high risk high reward and invest and add as it suits.. others will wait for definitive news and invest on that plateau.. less risk reward..

great days ahead for those who understand what the potential of eagleford and sugarkane to be, and understand it to be a legitimate play.. and those understanding the economics of it will imho be well rewarded for waiting for the value to arrive in the share..

best of luck to all holders..

Without stuffing around to put neatly what you said in this post alone today, I believe should be worth of $10,000 (considering some one seriously investing).

What you have been saying for some time on ADI if people have listened, understood and invested would make them a million. It is of course driven by the gutts, amount of initial investment and time. (Thankfully you have joined in ADI belatedly by Condog, Bart 9 and few others amade the thread stronger. IMO I saw no ramper in this thread due to high technical information being flown here)

I have been greatly motivated by your postings (so far ) and surely to keep ADI in my portfolio considering it is the only scrip which has increased by more than 300%. I wished to have invested all my dollars into this scrip to make my portfolio a super green.

But I lacked knowledge hence confidence and gutts

 

[jancha]

Without stuffing around to put neatly what you said in this post alone today, I believe should be worth of $10,000 (considering some one seriously investing).

What you have been saying for some time on ADI if people have listened, understood and invested would make them a million. It is of course driven by the gutts, amount of initial investment and time. (Thankfully you have joined in ADI belatedly by Condog, Bart 9 and few others amade the thread stronger. IMO I saw no ramper in this thread due to high technical information being flown here)

I have been greatly motivated by your postings (so far ) and surely to keep ADI in my portfolio considering it is the only scrip which has increased by more than 300%. I wished to have invested all my dollars into this scrip to make my portfolio a super green.

But I lacked knowledge hence confidence and gutts

Been holding for over a year now & have been picking up more shares on the dips.
However I dont thing i would have bought into ADI without Agentm's postings & research. Much thanks for that.
This is one share i wouldn't sell in a hurry unlike WDR where i bought @ 13c & sold @ 41c only to watch it go to 80c. Sold too early.
Imo this is just the beginning for ADI with the sp rising.
As you have said Agentm everything has fallen into place with Hilcorp ect.
All looking good imo. Currently up 121%

 

[jetblack]

Hartleys report 1/2/10

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/Hartleys Broker Report 1 February 2010.pdf

Their condensate/gas mix assumption is on the dry side.

Specific comment by the company can be found on this ASX release concerning Kennedy. The mix calculates at 258bcpd per 1mmcfgpd and the company comment on this uses the word "expected",

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...February 2010 - Kennedy Operations Update.pdf

As an alternative valuation, it is possible to speculate on a possible drilling programme, such as that suggested by AUT in a presentation in Aug 2008, or to look at activity in the region (as continuously posted by agentm) and to construct a "what/if" model plugging in figures based on Kennedy actual production per 1,000ft of pay, ADI's presentation on the new design of wells (expected length of new lateral pay), oil & gas prices, tax, royalties, estimated operating costs, and that will spill out a income stream that can be stress tested. Following which, a range of price/earnings multiples can be applied, a presumption that there will be no further capital issues necessary, ad it is then easy to find a credible scenario that would support the Hartleys price on an earnings basis.

In terms of data posted, this must rank as one of the richest chat threads in the cyberspace generated from planet Earth. That is not to say that there are far richer threads in the cyberspaces generated by the infinite number of replica planet Earths that must exist if you follow the belief that the universe is infinite. If, as implied by many astronomers, you take the view that the universe is finite (by calculating the mass of the universe that is implicit) there is then the philosophical question of what lies "beyond" it. That matters not here, however. Taking the view that the universe is finite restricts, as a corollary, the number (unproven) of potential cyberspace threads on which views on ADI may be posted. So, following that view of the universe, I would hazard again the suggestion that this is one of the most data-rich threads in the universe unless you, or someone else, can successfully persuade me that the universe is infinite and can resolve some of the paradoxes that mathematicians enjoy torturing themselves with such as proving that, despite the definition of infinite, there could be an infinite number of infinite universes which, to me, just throws in the towel, and reverts to the biblical account.

Thank you for your attention to my ramblings. Perhaps there is no such thing as 'certainty''. Perhaps everything is relative.

I thought for a sec that you were pizzed, but then thinking more about your ramblings, you probably might be talking about time and relative dimensions in space.

And your relating this to the percentage that ADI have , as many think that 20%, 10% after farm in is not much, but people dont understand this, and maybe you because you may well have been pizzed, but you knew that but really were'nt.

Where as an example of your time and relative dimensions in space would actually be Dr Who's phone both, "the Tardis" in relation to how big ADI acerage perecentage really is.


Hope this helps.

 

[skip9]

Skip,

A few of us here are landowners on this play in Texas. I fall directly in that category and I mean "directly" in every sense of the word. We wondered for the last couple years what the big deal was around here with all these rigs. I stumbled upon this forum and immediately after reading the 200+ pages invested in this stock. I among others see with our own eyes daily what the fruition of this area holds and bask in the knowledge that ADI is in on the play at 20%.

My suggestion is to rearead the entire post twice and then revisit your own assumptions. After I rearead it twice, I wished I had found it a year ago and bought in then. The internet is a wonderful tool. Good luck to all holders. I was very, very pleased with my ADI holdings today.

Ramblin - Thanks for the great reply. I will certainly read over the thread and look into the company, my main concern is where the future of this company lies. Obviously it has a high of $2.47, but that was a long time ago. It has had some good raises over the last few days/weeks, should this continue to happen? i know its the question that everyone wants to know but what is the share price mark, you as shareholders are hoping for.

I am relatively new to the stock market and i am only 20yrs of age. I have been educating myself about stocks and am looking to hold for the medium - long term but do get confused when there is so much speculation about a stock.

 

[doctorj]

I am relatively new to the stock market and i am only 20yrs of age. I have been educating myself about stocks and am looking to hold for the medium - long term but do get confused when there is so much speculation about a stock.

This is probably the most sensible post here for some time. There's no doubt the company has something worth looking at, but it is a long way off a sure thing. And if it does happen it will take a while, probably longer than most hope with plenty of ups and downs along the way.

The unrisked value published by Hartleys is just that, unrisked. I don't know how Hartleys tracks this, but you could probably count the number of times these targets are achieved for a company like this on one hand.

 

[estseon]

I thought for a sec that you were pizzed, but then thinking more about your ramblings, you probably might be talking about time and relative dimensions in space.

And your relating this to the percentage that ADI have , as many think that 20%, 10% after farm in is not much, but people dont understand this, and maybe you because you may well have been pizzed, but you knew that but really were'nt.

Where as an example of your time and relative dimensions in space would actually be Dr Who's phone both, "the Tardis" in relation to how big ADI acerage perecentage really is.


Hope this helps.

Having followed agent's posts (initially on ADFVN re Empyrean) for almost 4 years, and having seen a lot of his assertions become proved, I find the suggestion that he is ramping as surreal as the mathematicians' ponderings on the meaning of infinity. I went a bit overboard.

As to ADI's valuation, the two R's, Revenues and Reserves, are both important, in my view. Agent has made the point that the speed of development is as important to SP progression as assessed reserves. Perhaps more important. However, having done some back of the envelope calculations making assumptions based on information in presentations made by ADI & AUT, I found that the Hartleys figure could be validated taking either route. I don't mean that both come out at $1.80. What I mean is that a figure of that order looks quite possible with upward revisions over later years as the development progresses, always assuming that ADI is still invested in those later years.

Looking at their website, Hilcorp seem to have built up their business by buying mature assets and applying technology to increase recovery. That, to me, seems to be precisely what we needed. Not one of the wells in Block A that EME has had an interest in, nor any of the Block B wells, including SL-1, has failed to find the HCs. Not one dry well. Nothing approaching a dry well. The problem has been on the engineering side. And that seems to be their skill.

It is far too early to make future assumptions but that one result with Kennedy is just so positive compared to the sad and sorry stories that we have heard over so many years that it is very difficult not to bubble with belief that Hilcorp will actually manage to crack the problems and make that acreage gush USDs.

And if Hilcorp meshes its skill and success (hopefully) with its financial muscle, and that is important because Hilcorp will be funding 50% of all costs after the free-carry, production could start escalating. In the meantime, the combination of the reduced WI and the cash reserves give comfort that ADI should have little problem in meeting its obligations.

Far, far better to have 10% of something producing revenues than 20% of hope buried over 2 miles underground.

It is also a point that seems to have been missed by the EME investors. The diluted interest is only 3% but it is all relative. 3% of something quite big for a company quite small is significant.

Incidentally, I noticed a slight dislocation in prices between ADI & AUT last night so I thought that I might dabble a bit in the latter and take a gamble on Longhorn & Ipanema.