ADI - Adelphi Energy

[condog]

miner this is my simplistic view on things back then ,much much different now.the jvp knew what they had & the potential of it, but drilling , completions & fracing was guess work & until it was worked out by us or others(conoco,& few more) it was only potential. we are now seeing great results & getting better all over the place.

I agree.MIR......when you have companies like Petrohawk, Conoco, and Pioneer publicly proclaiming how Eagle Ford and Haynesville has or is projected to significantly help their numbers....its the real deal....

When you have Mobil buting TXO to get exposure to on shore USA plays its become a serious proposition..... now BP is allegedly sniffing around ... a lot has changed in 4 years that makes this not potential anymore...its actually happening...... and happening at a rediculous pace...

 

[Agentm]

I agree.MIR......when you have companies like Petrohawk, Conoco, and Pioneer publicly proclaiming how Eagle Ford and Haynesville has or is projected to significantly help their numbers....its the real deal....

When you have Mobil buting TXO to get exposure to on shore USA plays its become a serious proposition..... now BP is allegedly sniffing around ... a lot has changed in 4 years that makes this not potential anymore...its actually happening...... and happening at a rediculous pace...

condog

mobil have been around in a lot from a long way back..

in a very odd way they are directly benefiting from the eagleford

lol

 

[condog]

condog

mobil have been around in a lot from a long way back..

in a very odd way they are directly benefiting from the eagleford

lol

Yeh i know but when they are making acquisitions like TXO it would seem they are extremely serious about fast tracking there shale plays.... they want the personell, acerage....and whole package now....and they are not prepared to be patient and grow through organic....they mean business and they mean it now....

The other thing is the more major that take a stake force more others to take a stake to protect market share....its a nice development....agent have you or anyone else heard anything yet about BP....and wht there intentions are??

 

[estseon]

With the oil giants, I think that it is more a case of re-alignment of portfolios away from areas where the 'rule of law' is rarely seen and more rarely heeded.

The Eagleford might be a jackpot for our company and even the larger of the domestic US oil companies but I would tend to think that it is of less importance and significance to the Giants, who are looking for a bridge to maintain reserves until higher prices justify exploration and development of places like Greenland and development of the Canadian tar sands.

The Giants' shareholders are possibly starting to get a bit jaundiced with nationalisation, expropriation of assets, kidnap of personnel, spurious tax charges and environmental damage fines, reneging on contracts, war mongers and so on.

 

[Agentm]

ADI AUT and EKA now dominate the tipping comp this month

clearly the 40% rise is amongst these partners is no fluke, there is genuine across the board support for all three

rumours of a new rig, of kennedy doubling production, of ops on all sites really..

and with all that the speculation is rife on the share.

imho any positive announcements in the coming week will generate a lot of excitement and possibly see some healthy buying into all three partners..

best of luck to all holders

 

[jancha]

lol

i think they are fracing all three straight away


so one after the other.. i think exactly 36 days after the 14th of this month the sp will fly up, and all in one day, and be north of $1 and heading for $2

pity you will be selling the day before, (the 35th day) but you will have a nice house..

maybe wait a few months then you can buy a whole town

lol

Agentm
As has been said before your time & research put into this area has much been appreciated over the coarse of time.
Do you still feel that ADI has the potential to reach $2?
Or perhaps even a take over?

 

[mir]

very good day for adi ,aut & eka , the next couple of days should be very interesting re weston ip.

 

[SouthTexasPetro]

agentm,

what is this of Kennedy doubling production? That seems to be a little much considering its already high rates of condensate. Any new word on Weston/Easley?

 

[Agentm]

agentm,

what is this of Kennedy doubling production? That seems to be a little much considering its already high rates of condensate. Any new word on Weston/Easley?

hey south texas


dont take too much notice on the rumours..

it was stated on a uk forum by someone who has been around a long time and often comes up with some remarkably accurate one liners from time to time..

like mir for instance and plymouth on the hc forum..

i cant see it doubling myself, but there was a recent well in mcmullen where a liner was pu in and the increase was dramatic.. 8mmcfpd to 11mmcfpd after the production string,, and that was reported by the management on seeking alpha,, so i take that one seriously

jancha

adi easily is a $1 share and $1.80 is reported by hartleys

imho there is little research i am doing that is demonstrating the eagleford is all garbage and all operators and landmen are clambering over nothing..

aussie market yet to wake up on the play.. be good when it does..

 

[SouthTexasPetro]

Look to hear something soon on Weston results. Frac should be completed by now... Hopefully another Kennedy type results

 

[estseon]

southtexas

it was drilled in a different horizon.

What we don't know is whether Hilcorp managed to frac both the Eagleford and the Austin from Kennedy.

Weston is in the Austin. I suppose, technically, they could frac down into the Eagleford...don't know - we shall have to see. But it was a virgin well. Kennedy had had 2 fracs previously (bottom 600ft) and the 2nd blocked up - had to be abandoned because of pumping pressures. It wouldn't be surprising if that caused the problem with the liner that resulted in the final 6 stages being abandoned this time. They fracced 2,200 ft and 600 ft of that had been previously gummed up. What a result!

 

[Joe Blow]

I see a lot of price targets being thrown around in this thread with no attempt at substantiation. I really hope this thread isn't going back to the bad old days of 2006/2007.

I would like to remind everyone that if you post a price target, you are placing a valuation on a company and you must provide some fairly detailed analysis to support your case. Otherwise it's just ramping.

 

[mir]

joe blow i don't post much but do know a bit about this play,i remember a while back some mod posting stuff without much substance , a bit like your last post.

 

[Agentm]

I see a lot of price targets being thrown around in this thread with no attempt at substantiation. I really hope this thread isn't going back to the bad old days of 2006/2007.

I would like to remind everyone that if you post a price target, you are placing a valuation on a company and you must provide some fairly detailed analysis to support your case. Otherwise it's just ramping.

joe.. totally understand where your coming from..

if harlteys sees the upside of the play at 180 cents then i cant say i disagree other than saying their calculations were done on very conservative estimates.. imho the value of adi will creep into the share as they continue to announce the successes and the play becomes "derisked" by the very cautious aussie investors.. when you consider how many small caps are blatantly misleading their investors with garbage announcements,, the better ones like adi with geologists on the board making the conservative calls throughout, the risk of being misled is minimised..

adi management will keep the value in the share by carefully orchestrating the rapid development of the eagleford/ sugarkane field, and its evident they have not bitten off more than they can chew and are not languishing with phenomenal acreages that is totally unmanageable to a small cap..

my view on hartleys upside is that it is a totally realistic outcome for adi joe....

 

[condog]

One only needs to look at the AUT investor presentation from november then extrapolate that onto ADI ....so far everything except Kowalick and 6/14ths of Kennedy is on target.... so it should be reasonably easy to come up with a detailed projection of current and future value....

Overlay the value of Morgan and Rancho with say 14 or less stages and you will have a 90 day price target...or to be conservative base them on Kennedy

I will run one in the AUT and you can bash it or accept it then modify it for ADI..

Congrats on your new 52wk high of 24c....

 

[jancha]

I see a lot of price targets being thrown around in this thread with no attempt at substantiation. I really hope this thread isn't going back to the bad old days of 2006/2007.

I would like to remind everyone that if you post a price target, you are placing a valuation on a company and you must provide some fairly detailed analysis to support your case. Otherwise it's just ramping.

Does Hartley's analysis @ $1.80 for ADI support the case?
No ramping intended. Just trying to justify ADI value.

 

[Joe Blow]

joe.. totally understand where your coming from..

if harlteys sees the upside of the play at 180 cents then i cant say i disagree other than saying their calculations were done on very conservative estimates.. imho the value of adi will creep into the share as they continue to announce the successes and the play becomes "derisked" by the very cautious aussie investors.. when you consider how many small caps are blatantly misleading their investors with garbage announcements,, the better ones like adi with geologists on the board making the conservative calls throughout, the risk of being misled is minimised..

adi management will keep the value in the share by carefully orchestrating the rapid development of the eagleford/ sugarkane field, and its evident they have not bitten off more than they can chew and are not languishing with phenomenal acreages that is totally unmanageable to a small cap..

my view on hartleys upside is that it is a totally realistic outcome for adi joe....

I certainly don't mind price targets made by brokers being quoted, as long as it is mentioned when they made it, so it can be verified. If it's on the web, then please link to it. This sort of stuff is in the public domain and is fine to post.

However, price targets posted by thread participants must be accompanied by some analysis that supports their point of view.

Don't want to make a huge issue of this, just wanted to remind people to support their assertions - especially price targets - with facts and analysis.

 

[Bigukraine]

Does Hartley's analysis @ $1.80 for ADI support the case?
No ramping intended. Just trying to justify ADI value.

Just a friendly suggestion go to the adi web site and you can get the hartley's analysis for free which will help you to DYOR.:fu:

 

[estseon]

Hartleys report 1/2/10

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/Hartleys Broker Report 1 February 2010.pdf

Their condensate/gas mix assumption is on the dry side.

Specific comment by the company can be found on this ASX release concerning Kennedy. The mix calculates at 258bcpd per 1mmcfgpd and the company comment on this uses the word "expected",

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...February 2010 - Kennedy Operations Update.pdf

As an alternative valuation, it is possible to speculate on a possible drilling programme, such as that suggested by AUT in a presentation in Aug 2008, or to look at activity in the region (as continuously posted by agentm) and to construct a "what/if" model plugging in figures based on Kennedy actual production per 1,000ft of pay, ADI's presentation on the new design of wells (expected length of new lateral pay), oil & gas prices, tax, royalties, estimated operating costs, and that will spill out a income stream that can be stress tested. Following which, a range of price/earnings multiples can be applied, a presumption that there will be no further capital issues necessary, ad it is then easy to find a credible scenario that would support the Hartleys price on an earnings basis.

In terms of data posted, this must rank as one of the richest chat threads in the cyberspace generated from planet Earth. That is not to say that there are far richer threads in the cyberspaces generated by the infinite number of replica planet Earths that must exist if you follow the belief that the universe is infinite. If, as implied by many astronomers, you take the view that the universe is finite (by calculating the mass of the universe that is implicit) there is then the philosophical question of what lies "beyond" it. That matters not here, however. Taking the view that the universe is finite restricts, as a corollary, the number (unproven) of potential cyberspace threads on which views on ADI may be posted. So, following that view of the universe, I would hazard again the suggestion that this is one of the most data-rich threads in the universe unless you, or someone else, can successfully persuade me that the universe is infinite and can resolve some of the paradoxes that mathematicians enjoy torturing themselves with such as proving that, despite the definition of infinite, there could be an infinite number of infinite universes which, to me, just throws in the towel, and reverts to the biblical account.

Thank you for your attention to my ramblings. Perhaps there is no such thing as 'certainty''. Perhaps everything is relative.

 

[Speculator]

Hartleys report 1/2/10

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/Hartleys Broker Report 1 February 2010.pdf

Their condensate/gas mix assumption is on the dry side.

Specific comment by the company can be found on this ASX release concerning Kennedy. The mix calculates at 258bcpd per 1mmcfgpd and the company comment on this uses the word "expected",

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...February 2010 - Kennedy Operations Update.pdf

As an alternative valuation, it is possible to speculate on a possible drilling programme, such as that suggested by AUT in a presentation in Aug 2008, or to look at activity in the region (as continuously posted by agentm) and to construct a "what/if" model plugging in figures based on Kennedy actual production per 1,000ft of pay, ADI's presentation on the new design of wells (expected length of new lateral pay), oil & gas prices, tax, royalties, estimated operating costs, and that will spill out a income stream that can be stress tested. Following which, a range of price/earnings multiples can be applied, a presumption that there will be no further capital issues necessary, ad it is then easy to find a credible scenario that would support the Hartleys price on an earnings basis.

In terms of data posted, this must rank as one of the richest chat threads in the cyberspace generated from planet Earth. That is not to say that there are far richer threads in the cyberspaces generated by the infinite number of replica planet Earths that must exist if you follow the belief that the universe is infinite. If, as implied by many astronomers, you take the view that the universe is finite (by calculating the mass of the universe that is implicit) there is then the philosophical question of what lies "beyond" it. That matters not here, however. Taking the view that the universe is finite restricts, as a corollary, the number (unproven) of potential cyberspace threads on which views on ADI may be posted. So, following that view of the universe, I would hazard again the suggestion that this is one of the most data-rich threads in the universe unless you, or someone else, can successfully persuade me that the universe is infinite and can resolve some of the paradoxes that mathematicians enjoy torturing themselves with such as proving that, despite the definition of infinite, there could be an infinite number of infinite universes which, to me, just throws in the towel, and reverts to the biblical account.

Thank you for your attention to my ramblings. Perhaps there is no such thing as 'certainty''. Perhaps everything is relative.

Label on joint should read:

'WARNING: Its is best to wait at least three hours after puffing to commence posting on internet, failure to comply may result in slightly abusive banter and personal regrets after a good nights sleep.

Rule No.1: Never speculate inebriated or if you are sober and are seriously contemplating the existence of multiple universes...

I'd suggest youve gone a little bit to macro to be able to infer anything that really makes any applicable sense at that point.


-Speculator-