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ADI - Adelphi Energy

saf delivers more


agentm,
Also a more comprehensive note from Mooodys which confirms the very solid naure of Hilcorp ´s debt. Seems to be a very well run company with a Houston billionaire at the helm.



http://www.bondweb.co.kr/menu01/sub...Direction=&gubun1=0&gubun2=Dow Jones&keyword=

The following is a press release from Moody's Investors Service:


Approximately $992 million of Rated Debt Affected


New York, February 03, 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service assigned a B2
rating to Hilcorp Energy I, L.P.'s (Hilcorp) proposed $300 million senior
unsecured notes due 2020. Moody's also affirmed Hilcorp's B1 Corporate
Family Rating (CFR) and the B2 rating on the company's existing senior
unsecured notes. The outlook is stable.

"This bond offering refinances outstanding revolver borrowings and
provides additional cash to fund planned acquisitions and development,"
commented Francis Messina, Moody's Vice President. "While this will
increase Hilcorp's debt level, Hilcorp entered 2010 with low leverage
metrics relative to similarly rated peers."

Pro forma for the notes offering, Moody's estimates Hilcorp's adjusted
Debt/PD at approximately $10/Boe and debt plus future FAS 69 proven
reserve development capex on total proven reserves at approximately
$13.50/Boe. However, in terms of debt to average daily production
Hilcorp carries less leverage compared to its peers estimated less than
$22,000/Boe. Moody's estimates that Hilcorp will reduce further its
adjusted debt/PD level below $10/boe as the company rationalizes its
reserve portfolio.

Hilcorp's B1 CFR reflects strong production growth trends from
investments, comparatively stable production and a long generally
productive history in most of its focus regions, and an expected
reduction in financial leverage as earnings continue to grow. Though
Hilcorp has an aggressive acquisition strategy the company has indicated
it will appropriately contain leverage.

Hilcorp has had a successful track record for replacing production through
its acquire and exploit strategy of purchasing mature properties from
the majors then adding reserves through the drillbit, with an estimated
14% compounded annual growth rate from year-end 2002 projected into
2010. The relatively low three-year drillbit costs of estimated at
approximately $15.73/boe underlines Hilcorp's solid exploitation reserve
replacement trend and also reflects management's strong operational
expertise. Hilcorp operates 93% of its net production.

The stable outlook is based on an expectation that Hilcorp funds its
capital expenditures at levels largely in line with its operating cash
flows while achieving its production growth targets. The outlook could be
changed to negative if spending were to materially exceed operating cash
flow. The outlook could also be pressured or the ratings downgraded if
the company were to significantly increase debt through further property
acquisitions, dividends, and/or outspend its operating cash flows.
Dividends for year-end 2008 were approximately $100 million, with an
estimated dividend of $75 million for 2009.

The ratings for the senior unsecured notes reflect both the overall
probability of default of the company, to which Moody's assigns a PDR of
B1, and a loss given default of LGD 4, 62%, previously LGD 4, 66%. The
B2 rating of the senior unsecured notes reflects their position in
Hilcorp's capital structure, including the subordination to all first
lien senior secured creditors and full guarantees of existing and future
subsidiaries.

The last rating action was on November 13, 2009 when Moody's upgraded
Hilcorp's CFR to B1 from B2, and upgrade its senior unsecured notes to
B2 from B3.

The principal methodology used in rating Hilcorp was Moody's Global
Independent Exploration and Production Industry rating methodology
published in December 2008. The methodology is available on
www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the
Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have
been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in
the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website.

Hilcorp is a private limited partnership engaged in onshore and coastal
oil and gas production, acquisitions, exploitation, and divestitures.
Hilcorp acquires properties late in their productive lives with a goal of
boosting production through recompletions, workover and repair of
downhole hardware, restimulation of the wellbore/reservoir interface, and
refracturing of reservoir rock.
 
In my previous post I noted a group of landmen moving into town. Correction on the name of the company. It is Geo Southern moving into town, not EOG.
 
Agent they said Weston fraccing began on 4th and would take approx 2 weeks.... whats your thoughts on flow rates beeing announced prior to next friday the 19th.... is it possible we would have pre clean up flows announced....

Also whats your time line on Easily testing how long till fracs begin and end IYO....

And am i correct in assuming Morgan will be straight ont he back of Weston, with Rancho on the back of Easily..... who owns the rigs, are these hilcorps now or TCEI's...and if they are still owned by TCEI does that mean hilcorp have two spares up there sleeve ready to start Morgan and Rancho

Ta in advance,.
 
Agent they said Weston fraccing began on 4th and would take approx 2 weeks.... whats your thoughts on flow rates being announced prior to next friday the 19th.... is it possible we would have pre clean up flows announced....

Also whats your time line on Easily testing how long till fracs begin and end IYO....

And am i correct in assuming Morgan will be straight ont he back of Weston, with Rancho on the back of Easily..... who owns the rigs, are these hilcorps now or TCEI's...and if they are still owned by TCEI does that mean hilcorp have two spares up there sleeve ready to start Morgan and Rancho

Ta in advance,.

hey condog

i should charge by the hour now!!

lol

weston is scheduled for a 14 day frac, so literally a day a stage.. it would be near impossible to know what day flow rates are announced, as there is no updates atm, the flow number of stages finished is unknown so you cant gauge timings. so its safe to assume it will be 14 days maybe less, if its more the jvp will announce its going to be longer.

easley was at td in the pilot hole, they will drill the turn, then case and cement that, then drill out and do the lateral. plenty of time b4 that one is finished. after the completion they will design a frac and get a crew on it pretty fast imho.

morgan, the site was ready for a rig a few weeks back i heard from the locals. timing on the well start up and what rig they use is entirley up to the operator hilcorp.

rancho is another permit, i am not sure if a pad is prepared as yet..

as for rigs, they are not rigs owned by the operator, so easley has a rig on it, its a patterson rig number 550. if hilcoorp wanted 2 or 3 or 6 rigs they would discuss that with various rig operators and decide on which services to use.

i think there are about 1000 rigs stacked up in the usa atm.. i hear operators are working on a lot of them gearing them up.. with the shale gas and oil exploration boom its going nuts over there..

i003695p.jpg
 

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Agentm and ADI experts

Could some one please view the posting by adobee in CTP and his alert on ADI.

I already have asked him but thought to draw your attention on the concerns raised in that thread.
 
:):)Miner , I would not worry about what Adobee said. What I think he means that because his luck is crappy he just wants you aware that it will follow him where ever he next goes.

Look at what ADI have , and the news that has been presented to you by Agent M and the others. Dont get distracted by the noise, it wasnt long ago Adobee had a time limit to sell because he was buying a house.

If I have this all wrong then I will stand corrected.
 
Adobee your not welcome here...nobody who has bad luck is in any of the JV companies..... lol

I?Ts all goood miner....he was giving ADI the thumbs up

Thanks Agent for such a detailed response.... mate if this comes off, i will pay you by the hour in beer.....the only international currency worth anything these days...lol

I know Hilcorp have only just taken over, but im sure they have one eye on the lease terms, the other on thier ROE for the year..... so id be expecting big and forthcoming announcments asap.... they wont want to be messing around.... they have $300m sitting in the kitty needs deploying or they look rediculous....

Bring on the hillcorp express.... i got my tickets, and soon i will be buying a family pass...
 
Hey Rambling

You may have been mistakenly mistakenly correct on EOG landmen the other day....

EOG plans to boost investment and leases in Eagle Ford Shale Play, targeting oil
Feb 11th 2010
Mark Papa, chairman and chief executive of EOG Resources, said ......that the company will invest most of its capital in oil-related projects.

Papa said the Haynesville and Bossier Shales--two natural gas-rich rock formations in Louisiana--would be "the largest single driver" behind the increase in natural gas output. The company plans to drill 70 Haynesville and Bossier wells this year.

But EOG Resources did not provide details on the Eagle Ford Shale, a rapidly developing oil and gas field in South Texas, where the company has been drilling wells and leasing acreage.

"Until our lease situation is tied up, we're not going to make any further comments," Papa said.
From Wall Street Journal dot com
 
Yeah I had heard it was EOG again today but did not post at the risk of looking more stupid. I'm afraid it's too late. lol........

I'm just going to wait and see what sign they hang on the door and then we'll know for sure. :p:
 
These following graphs address EFS performance based on (8/8)'s oil and gas monthly production volumes reported to the TEXAS RRC. The volumes in circles are "actuals" ...the following red path is the best fit following evident decline rates. The two errant oil wells remain somewhat a mystery.... but I plotted them as reported. To nullify the obvious anticipated backlash I've chosen not to identify the specific wells nor location.....The conclusions you reach are your own...

B.
 

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from saf a few days back, remember the sugarkane is way overpressurised compared to the eagleford wells they refer to, and all sugarkane wells results are not in the survey map

i know what conoco expectations are, and its not 2 -5 bcfe





RRC Texas Website

Eagle Ford Shale Play
Highlights

First entry description of the Eagle Ford Shale published by the RRC on 7 Feb including the following statements.-

Early production figures indicate that individual wells will experience total production of between 2 billion cubic feet and 5 billion cubic feet (bcf) with more liquid hydrocarbons than other shale fields. Initial drilling and completion costs have been averaging about $5 million per well

The Eagle Ford shale appears attractive because of several additional factors:

It has a much higher carbonate to shale percentage, thus making it more brittle and fracable;

It is not highly pressured (as the Haynesville Shale).

2lapx6h.gif



http://209.85.135.132/search?q=cach...ndex.php+eagle+ford+shale&cd=22&hl=en&ct=clnk
 
These following graphs address EFS performance based on (8/8)'s oil and gas monthly production volumes reported to the TEXAS RRC. The volumes in circles are "actuals" ...the following red path is the best fit following evident decline rates. The two errant oil wells remain somewhat a mystery.... but I plotted them as reported. To nullify the obvious anticipated backlash I've chosen not to identify the specific wells nor location.....The conclusions you reach are your own...

B.

Mate Bart 9

I just do not know how some of you guys like Agentm, you, Condog get such an excellent information and you give us the privy of sharing that too.

Well done mate and to be honest, the graphs are too technical for me and this not a joke. I think it is time to go back to school and do some serious studies on oil and gas to get the best out of such postings and to put my money right spot (not damn scrip like BCC :banghead:).

ADI price today reflects the good work some of you (Hello Agentm - you are listening too) have done and disseminated .

Regards
 
To my knowledge C.W. Lake and Associates out of Kennedy has been representing EOG in Karnes County for about a year now. They were gettin' after it six to eight months ago, then a lull. Now, in a recent conversation with a Carroll Lake landman (details spared), he indicated that his firm has 40 landmen working Karnes County. All EOG most likely. The guy I talked to was representing EOG. I don't think much of either, but that's neither here nor there.

BTW, the TRRC info about Eagle Ford is like Prince playing the Super Bowl--that just ain't right! The Who were OK, but I'm in favor of AC/DC next time around, obviously.

BTW, there's an E&P in the play that starts with a "C" then a "vowel" and then a "French" ending like "butt." Hey French and butt in the same sentence, and I'm in trouble with Sweetie, St. Valentine's day coming up and all. Dang, I got to get some flowers, or candles or something, in the AM.

Happy Trails, Tordilla Kid (Roll the "rrrr," "di" is "dee," "lla" is "ya" and "Kid" is "Keed.") I know it's not PC, but it's authentic outlaw.

P.S. There are vatos from Laredo who run stolen cars down FM 791, but I'm not one of them anymore lol.
 
Mate Bart 9

I just do not know how some of you guys like Agentm, you, Condog get such an excellent information and you give us the privy of sharing that too.

Well done mate and to be honest, the graphs are too technical for me and this not a joke. I think it is time to go back to school and do some serious studies on oil and gas to get the best out of such postings and to put my money right spot (not damn scrip like BCC :banghead:).

ADI price today reflects the good work some of you (Hello Agentm - you are listening too) have done and disseminated .

Regards

Investing and some ( i repeat some ) threads in here and hc plus talking and reading is the best school there is...... the best hourly rate you will ever get is learning how to invest, learning how to evaluate small caps...bar none...

miner you wil find experts on a stock in some threads eg: agent in here, use their knowledge to learn and google, google news, google then when your exhausted google again.... subscribe to news announcments eg "eagle ford" & "austin chalk" "Hilcorp eagle ford" etc , read there reports and search for analyst reports, and you wont miss a beat.... but always check the cash flow statements to look for debt, cash problems and truth...
 
Investing and some ( i repeat some ) threads in here and hc plus talking and reading is the best school there is...... the best hourly rate you will ever get is learning how to invest, learning how to evaluate small caps...bar none...

miner you wil find experts on a stock in some threads eg: agent in here, use their knowledge to learn and google, google news, google then when your exhausted google again.... subscribe to news announcments eg "eagle ford" & "austin chalk" "Hilcorp eagle ford" etc , read there reports and search for analyst reports, and you wont miss a beat.... but always check the cash flow statements to look for debt, cash problems and truth...

missing plenty of ingredients, but a few factors are mentioned by you..

you have no idea about me condog, and what methods and tools i use are not visible to you, all you will ever see is essentially only aspects of my research that i share..

but researching with the right attitude is what makes it work
 
missing plenty of ingredients, but a few factors are mentioned by you..

you have no idea about me condog, and what methods and tools i use are not visible to you, all you will ever see is essentially only aspects of my research that i share..

but researching with the right attitude is what makes it work

Arr but i do know that you know a lot about this stock and the shales and that makes you the expert on this topic in here.....people would be well advised to listen to you on this topic....

Yes its a pretty simplistic overview of the tens of thousands of hours spent learning and reading but its a damn good starting point...a good fast track....for others...Ive found formal eduactaion pretty slow boring and out dated on most investing topics.... the cutting edge stuff is in doing it yourself and with the knowledg of those that are also doing it, not those that are teaching it...

Anyway its a lot of topic so lets get back to ADI...which is far more exciting and interesting...
 
Arr but i do know that you know a lot about this stock and the shales and that makes you the expert on this topic in here.....people would be well advised to listen to you on this topic....

Yes its a pretty simplistic overview of the tens of thousands of hours spent learning and reading but its a damn good starting point...a good fast track....for others...Ive found formal eduactaion pretty slow boring and out dated on most investing topics.... the cutting edge stuff is in doing it yourself and with the knowledg of those that are also doing it, not those that are teaching it...

Anyway its a lot of topic so lets get back to ADI...which is far more exciting and interesting...

missing plenty of ingredients, but a few factors are mentioned by you..

you have no idea about me condog, and what methods and tools i use are not visible to you, all you will ever see is essentially only aspects of my research that i share..

but researching with the right attitude is what makes it work

Dear AgentM and Condog

Let us come back to ADI and thanks for every word both of you said.

Thanks again

MIner
 
Cant belive someone sold at 43.5 right on the close they will never get ADI at those prices ever again.

I was intrigued to learn more about Eagleford Shale, ADI, AUT relationship by visiting websites and past postings in ASF in this thread.

Way back 2006 the postings suggest ADI and AUT were hot cakes.

I need to follow more and can not be done over night. But it seems both ADI and AUT have had lovely rise and may be future is turning back after 4 years

Good luck holders
 
miner this is my simplistic view on things back then ,much much different now.the jvp knew what they had & the potential of it, but drilling , completions & fracing was guess work & until it was worked out by us or others(conoco,& few more) it was only potential. we are now seeing great results & getting better all over the place.
 
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