ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Agentm]

Lucky_Country

i think those on the sidelines would look at the share again. its been an eternity for all the jvp partners, and conoco have gone ahead with a full scale 3d of the region to pinpoint their wells, so they are in no rush to put any wells into production, the years of experimentation at the kunde and baker wells, as well as the hook and bordovsky wells (and a few others) has given them enough data to buy the expensive leases they have and to now map the region.

our jvp has the concerns of the investors to deal with, most of them have only this play to get them anywhere, and the excessive time delays has taken its toll on their respective shareprices.

although kennas is very correct in saying what he is saying, i am none the less convinced the sp may be seeing more positive days than negative in the days to come, with the usual experctations driving up the sp prior to results coming out.. but AUT has made it clear the jvp is going ahead irrespective of what is to come from baker and kunde 3.

 

[Lucky_Country]

All investment has its own risk !
So Kennas what is your point of view on ADI are they doing a Bear Sterns are they never going too produce have they got nothing at SugarKane ?
Look forward too your comments on this company.

 

[Lucky_Country]

Lucky_Country

i think those on the sidelines would look at the share again. its been an eternity for all the jvp partners, and conoco have gone ahead with a full scale 3d of the region to pinpoint their wells, so they are in no rush to put any wells into production, the years of experimentation at the kunde and baker wells, as well as the hook and bordovsky wells (and a few others) has given them enough data to buy the expensive leases they have and to now map the region.

our jvp has the concerns of the investors to deal with, most of them have only this play to get them anywhere, and the excessive time delays has taken its toll on their respective shareprices.

although kennas is very correct in saying what he is saying, i am none the less convinced the sp may be seeing more positive days than negative in the days to come, with the usual experctations driving up the sp prior to results coming out.. but AUT has made it clear the jvp is going ahead irrespective of what is to come from baker and kunde 3.

AgentM thats all Im saying speculation will drive the share price untill results are in.
If the results are positive then that should put a floor under the sp.
More wells more results higher shareprice.
Bad results equate too a sell off obviously but I feel confident on 2 years of delays that we have something worth waiting for.
Thats my opinion and Im entitled too have that and express it.

 

[Sean K]

All investment has its own risk !
So Kennas what is your point of view on ADI are they doing a Bear Sterns are they never going too produce have they got nothing at SugarKane ?
Look forward too your comments on this company.

I've made a comment here and there, but more towards my role as a Moderator.

It troubles me both as an investor and as a moderator when a stock gets so much positive airplay and support when it is most obviously in a downtrend.

I should also add that it is only holders and rampers who get upset with objective and reasonable questioning of a stock and it's value, at ANY TIME, even when it's going UP, let alone long term down.

A very clear indication of ramping, and/or unreasonable obsession and emotional attachment in a company, is when punters get offended with a 'negative' comment of a stock. It's at those times when investors should very, very seriously check themselves and question where they are placing their money, and encouraging others to do so.

 

[Agentm]

I've made a comment here and there, but more towards my role as a Moderator.

It troubles me both as an investor and as a moderator when a stock gets so much positive airplay and support when it is most obviously in a downtrend.

I should also add that it is only holders and rampers who get upset with objective and reasonable questioning of a stock and it's value, at ANY TIME, even when it's going UP, let alone long term down.

A very clear indication of ramping, and/or unreasonable obsession and emotional attachment in a company, is when punters get offended with a 'negative' comment of a stock. It's at those times when investors should very, very seriously check themselves and question where they are placing their money, and encouraging others to do so.

kennas

posting up that AUT announces kennedy is going to be fraced and that sugarloaf will become a horizontal is significant news to the shareholders, its news that all have been endlessly waiting for..

it is not a ramp to post that on asf.. i have an interest in the share, and as an investor i am sharing my research on this forum..

what your saying is nonsense.. your very condesending in your previous post to me, i ignored it.. i PMed you and told you i didnt like it, you didnt take the point but added insults instead!!


kennas, your hardly a moderator, your just insulting people and provocing any way you can.. please elaborate what part of my posts today were ramping.. and why did you not remove them?

 

[Lucky_Country]

I've made a comment here and there, but more towards my role as a Moderator.

It troubles me both as an investor and as a moderator when a stock gets so much positive airplay and support when it is most obviously in a downtrend.

I should also add that it is only holders and rampers who get upset with objective and reasonable questioning of a stock and it's value, at ANY TIME, even when it's going UP, let alone long term down.

A very clear indication of ramping, and/or unreasonable obsession and emotional attachment in a company, is when punters get offended with a 'negative' comment of a stock. It's at those times when investors should very, very seriously check themselves and question where they are placing their money, and encouraging others to do so.

Just because a stock is in a downward trend doesnt means its doomed to failure.
The whole market is in a downward trend are they all doomed?
Please tell us what your point of view on this share faliure or success?

 

[Sean K]

LOL

You are right, hardly a Moderator.

Hardly anyone could reasonably question the performace of this stock over the past little while.

Just gone down with the market of course.

This is one of those companies that just needs a find to turn around I suppose, so good luck to long term holders and speculators.

 

[Agentm]

LOL

You are right, hardly a Moderator.

Hardly anyone could reasonably question the performace of this stock over the past little while.

Just gone down with the market of course.

This is one of those companies that just needs a find to turn around I suppose, so good luck to long term holders and speculators.

every holder and the directors of all the jvp's are painfully aware of the sp trend since the decision to wait on the kunde 3 frac and baker frac was taken. i and many others have made calls to the directors, and we all know the story, its now evident the jvp has the confidence to frac the chalks.. so kennedy will now be fraced in the near term.

clearly the AUT presentation has not only a comprehensive amount of info on the formation and its envisaged potential

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2008/AUT20080317.pdf

but it signals the jvp is now going forward..

i agree kennas, good luck to all holders..



all imho and dyor..

 

[Lucky_Country]

Up 34% there goes that downward trend !
As AgentM has stated delays have hindered the shareprice along with a bear market.
AUT presentation was very positive and opens the news flow from the jvp.

 

[HRL]

I haven't been on this one for a while so was amazed to see you guys still banging on about ADI. Have they produced anything yet or are they still close? In all seriousness I have to agree with Kennas that the only way anyone would have made money on this lately is from shorting it. Regarding the comment about speculation driving it back up you need to understand that the market sentiment has changed a lot since ADI hit $1 last year on the back of wild speculation. Since the current bear market set in it has scared a lot of people away from little spec plays like ADI. Even the smart money in big blue chips is being hammered so you've got to wonder how many people are game enough to throw money at stocks that were even risky in a bull run. Honestly you're better off opening a CFD account so you can go short and run tight stop losses. Getting onto my soapbox here but diversification and money management are key to longterm success. Loading up on one stock and praying is not good practice. If you give yourself plenty of options and handle your money well there's no reason why you can't make a boatload regardless of which way the market is going. Bull & bear markets don't exist for the trader who can take long or short positions and trade on trends and momentum. Just my 2c of course...

 

[Lucky_Country]

I think all depends on your investment strategy.
ADI too me are a stock I will stick with till we know what they have got in Texas good or bad as there are no certainties there but I personally am optomistic.
ADI yesterday went up 34% on AUTs presentation which too me proves people are in the sidelines waiting for an entry once fraccing has started I expect another jump until some kind of results come out.
It has been a long road for us longterm shareholders and a rollercoaster at that but as the old saying goes
"The more you want it the longer it takes"

 

[HRL]

I think all depends on your investment strategy.
ADI too me are a stock I will stick with till we know what they have got in Texas good or bad as there are no certainties there but I personally am optomistic.
ADI yesterday went up 34% on AUTs presentation which too me proves people are in the sidelines waiting for an entry once fraccing has started I expect another jump until some kind of results come out.
It has been a long road for us longterm shareholders and a rollercoaster at that but as the old saying goes
"The more you want it the longer it takes"

Well you're right that everyones investment strategy is different, risk tolerance also, but the basis of every strategy should be to get the best possible return and preferably in a relatively short time if you want to enjoy it before old age sets in.

In general I trade only on established trends and momentum - once something starts to happen then get on and ride it out. I don't understand the practice of getting in way too early on something that has a poor track record and may not return much anyway. If you're waiting patiently in the wings for ages you could have already made a fortune elsewhere in the same time and then if your horse turns out to be lame then you've wasted a lot of time and loads of money so what's the point? There are 1700 companies on the ASX and thousands more in exchanges around the world so why get hung up on one that isn't doing anything? Just wait for something to happen then get on - it's not that hard.

 

[nioka]

Well you're right that everyones investment strategy is different, risk tolerance also, but the basis of every strategy should be to get the best possible return and preferably in a relatively short time if you want to enjoy it before old age sets in.

In general I trade only on established trends and momentum - once something starts to happen then get on and ride it out. I don't understand the practice of getting in way too early on something that has a poor track record and may not return much anyway. If you're waiting patiently in the wings for ages you could have already made a fortune elsewhere in the same time and then if your horse turns out to be lame then you've wasted a lot of time and loads of money so what's the point? There are 1700 companies on the ASX and thousands more in exchanges around the world so why get hung up on one that isn't doing anything? Just wait for something to happen then get on - it's not that hard.

Hindsight is a wonderful trait to have. I don't have it. Looking back I should have waited to get into ADI. Looking forward, one day at a time, it has been hard not to be in ADI and it still is that way. I did not anticipate the delays and I'm sure nobody else did either. My consolation is that I did trade a little along the way yet at the same time kept "in" at all times. I can not see into the future either so I guess I will just have to wait and have a little faith in agentm's research being at least half correct. I have interests in some of the other 1700 companies and some of them are a lot worse off today than ADI.
P.S. The gestation period for an elephant is a year. Any resemblance?

 

[HRL]

Hindsight is a wonderful trait to have. I don't have it. Looking back I should have waited to get into ADI. Looking forward, one day at a time, it has been hard not to be in ADI and it still is that way. I did not anticipate the delays and I'm sure nobody else did either. My consolation is that I did trade a little along the way yet at the same time kept "in" at all times. I can not see into the future either so I guess I will just have to wait and have a little faith in agentm's research being at least half correct. I have interests in some of the other 1700 companies and some of them are a lot worse off today than ADI.
P.S. The gestation period for an elephant is a year. Any resemblance?

And it only takes a few seconds and brief lack of attention to get hit by a bus and die.

You can rely on luck and other peoples hopeful research if that's your plan but you could also get hold of some charting software and a stock scanning service and start setting up a few indicators. That way you'll know which companies are starting to get some upward (or downward) pressure and when things are most likely to start happening. Otherwise your fate is in someone elses hands and you might as well just go out and buy a lottery ticket.

 

[prawn_86]

Everyone has different style HRL.

That is why prices change so much in the market. Your style works for you, doesnt mean it would work for everyone.

ADI is still in a downtrend though imo

 

[nioka]

And it only takes a few seconds and brief lack of attention to get hit by a bus and die.

You can rely on luck and other peoples hopeful research if that's your plan but you could also get hold of some charting software and a stock scanning service and start setting up a few indicators. That way you'll know which companies are starting to get some upward (or downward) pressure and when things are most likely to start happening. Otherwise your fate is in someone elses hands and you might as well just go out and buy a lottery ticket.

I do rely on other peoples research and that is why I think ASF does such a good job. I think agentm's research has been well worth while reading. I make my own decisions and I follow up with my own research. Some of my most productive investments have come as a result of finding it first on ASF. AGM and AOE have been a couple of the best.
ADI can be traded on the charts very easily by hindsight traders but there is not a chart that I can find that will predict drilling results and so I believe there is one way to hold ADI and that is as a believer. Unless one has insider knowledge it is hard to be in it unless you have faith in the research. The trading volume proves that. 10,000 only turnover today, hardly daytraders volume.
I'd love to be able to buy a lottery ticket with the same odds.

 

[Broadside]

Well of course with hindsight HRL some of us wouldn't have held through thick and thin for 2 years, though you seem to assume it's the only stock we hold? I am in it for the risk/reward, I am still awaiting testing and am prepared for the worst, of all the risks I saw with this stock and EKA, delays like this was the least of them, but has proved very very costly in a bear market. Anyway, testing is on its way, bring it on, for better or worse. Good results and it will run hard. Bad results? well to my mind, a lot of bad news is already assumed.

Glad to see agentm retains his faith and optimism (not blind faith, research backed faith) and I hope it's well rewarded, not just because I will participate in the riches, just because it would be great to see him vindicated, in spite of all the doubters over all this time.

All the best to holders and 20/20 hindsight posters can bugger off.

 

[resourceboom]

Everyone has different style HRL.

That is why prices change so much in the market. Your style works for you, doesnt mean it would work for everyone.

ADI is still in a downtrend though imo

Exactly prawny, everyone has their own own approach, HRL shouldn't try and force his style on others.

 

[nioka]

Exactly prawny, everyone has their own own approach, HRL shouldn't try and force his style on others.

Don't be too critical on HRL. He has every right to bring another point of view to the thread and it does not hurt to have us look at the situation through other eyes from time to time. Nobody is forcing anyone to accept anyone elses view. His post caused me to rethink and I responded according to my conclusions.

 

[resourceboom]

ok. I am perfectly fine with an opposing view, but thought he was being a bit forceful in his views, and not everyone is a trader.

It is frustrating when you believe that a company has potential for a strong future, and you get people who make posts that feel to me at least very condescending....

anyway said my piece...