ADI - Adelphi Energy

[HRL]

All the best to holders and 20/20 hindsight posters can bugger off.

Interesting. So past performance, or hindsight as you call it, plays no part in your investment strategy? Therefore a company that hasn't done anything of real worth for two years is just as good a bet as one with stellar results for the same period? Write it off as smartarsed hindsight from a non-believer but past performance is a key indicator for anyone holding for anything from 1hr to 5yrs.

As for forcing my style on other people that wasn't my intention. I've held my share of underperforming companies and am always interested to know why other people hold. If it's a little bottom drawer spec that you're happy to hold indefinitely then that's fine. Overall I was/still am keen to know why this is such a hyped thread. Save the emotion if you're going to reply and just tell us all why you got in orginally, what it's done for you so far and why you're holding. Some facts would be nice.

 

[nioka]

Overall I was/still am keen to know why this is such a hyped thread. Save the emotion if you're going to reply and just tell us all why you got in orginally, what it's done for you so far and why you're holding. Some facts would be nice.

That is a very easy question to answer. There is no other thread that has a researcher prepared to spend the time to fully research the facts and be prepared to share them with others. ADI has Agentm. His research can be checked for it's authenticity by anyone who wants to follow up with their own. The facts he has published seem to stand testing. No one has proved otherwise. There possibly are elephants in the vacinity and I hold as a believer in them. If I'm on a hunting expedition that fails to bag an elephant then so be it, but I'll stay for a few more days hunting yet.

 

[Agentm]

back to the topic of the AUT presentation.. i would like to discuss adi and the operations of adi and the AUT presentation relating to the sugarkane and kennedy well..

imho the graphs put up on the Kennedy well being only 4 times the usual vertical, can throw a good slant on the prospectivity of the suagrkane.. horizontals can give way more than 4 times the vertical wells in deliver imho..

 

[Broadside]

Interesting. So past performance, or hindsight as you call it, plays no part in your investment strategy? Therefore a company that hasn't done anything of real worth for two years is just as good a bet as one with stellar results for the same period? Write it off as smartarsed hindsight from a non-believer but past performance is a key indicator for anyone holding for anything from 1hr to 5yrs.

As for forcing my style on other people that wasn't my intention. I've held my share of underperforming companies and am always interested to know why other people hold. If it's a little bottom drawer spec that you're happy to hold indefinitely then that's fine. Overall I was/still am keen to know why this is such a hyped thread. Save the emotion if you're going to reply and just tell us all why you got in orginally, what it's done for you so far and why you're holding. Some facts would be nice.

Not emotional, I apologise if it seemed I was full of the angry pills but anyone can criticise decisions with hindsight, I don't regret the decision to buy nor the decision to hold since I acted on the best information I had at the time, and my own judgement. Read the thread from 2 years ago if you want my reasons, the jist of it is, I think the risk/reward is very favourable and the outcome remains to be seen, I've waited this long but won't exit because I am impatient. It's a tough market and has gone very risk averse, which is bad news when a stock has no news and is high risk. But the potential outcomes remain the same.

 

[Agentm]

last week Beirne Trading Pty Ltd put in for 1.398 mill shares... in one day becoming the 6th largest holder in ADI. i note there is not one post criticising him, none warning him of impending doom.. and no one concerned enough about such a massive investment into the share and feeling obliged to offer invaluable hindsight to them. no bombardment of ta graphs sent to them.. what bliss, IMHO your sometimes better off not discussing the share than try to communicate with fellow shareholders on a forum under a constant attack from the usual suspects asking politely why you invested then broadsiding you. sorry broady, but its the right term to use...

Now we know the majority of the largest holders have stayed. right throughout. I believe the holders in the top 20 would not done so too unwisely, i think they have researched and held.. 2 years or more in some cases, no issues and no problems at all..

 

[Adam A]

With all due respect agentm, if a major holder wanted to get out he/she might have great dificulty in doing so. The buy side has been weak for a while now Only 457,261 want in down to 0.19c However the sell side is low too,positive news could very well see it run imho what to do?

 

[Agentm]

With all due respect agentm, if a major holder wanted to get out he/she might have great dificulty in doing so. The buy side has been weak for a while now Only 457,261 want in down to 0.19c However the sell side is low too,positive news could very well see it run imho what to do?

thats your opinion adam,, but with due respect, if a major holder wants to get out they have had no problem doing so.. 5 mill @ .53 and 2.5mill @ .225..

adam if you expect positive news then it may run, imho the groundhog days are here for a while longer, no announcements followed the AUT presentation.. which was very informative, but imho out off time with reality.. bottom draw for a while longer..

 

[gdaf]

"High Profile Dusters" - Interestingly, they fail to mention that Zone 1 anywhere in any of our plays haven't been tested yet... shows the mentality of the sellers, and the general feeling of ADI to some in the investment community.
---------------------------------------------
Slump offers bargains for investors
24/03/08 11:12


Some unloved stocks are now a third of the price that they deserve to be and the share market rout presents bargains for retail investors and corporate predators, analysts say.

Cheap share market valuations have led to strong merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, particularly in the resources sector. The the most recent example is the Lihir Gold/Equigold NL combination announced on Friday, and a takeover bid by Indophil Resources NL for Lion Selection Ltd announced on Thursday.

"And we're going to be more of this, there is no doubt," said independent analyst Peter Strachan.

CopperCo Ltd, which is merging with Mineral Securities Ltd, was a prime example of a company now priced at a third of its value, he said.

Mr Strachan said many companies were trading at bargain basement, bottom-of-the-cycle levels.

"They're probably three to five per cent from the bottom in any continued downward movement, which I think we're going to get," Mr Strachan said.

"The stocks that stick out are property developers and property trusts, and also financials: the main banks, Suncorp-Metway and ANZ particularly.

"Those stocks have fallen 50 per cent.

"I know there will be profit downgrades from the banks ... but I still think, if you take a two or three year views, those stocks are looking particularly cheap."

Mr Strachan said oil and gas producers such as Petsec Energy Ltd, Arc Energy Ltd, AWE Ltd and Roc Oil Company Ltd represented extraordinary value.

"Petsec ... would spit out the same amount of cash as you would pay to buy the company in about 14 months."

While not yet producers, oil and gas explorers Otto Energy Ltd and Nexus Energy Ltd were also good value, he said.

"Any company that's got oil and gas assets, as opposed to undertaking pure exploration, looks cheap."

Mr Strachan said the energy sector had lost favour with investors due to a lack of recent exploration success and operational woes at projects including AED's Puffin field and the Anzon Australia Ltd-operated Basker Manta Gummy joint venture.

Mr Strachan said a string of high profile dusters - dry wells - included Adelphi Energy Ltd's Sugarloaf project in the United States and others in Mauritania and China's Beibu Gulf.

He said some companies servicing the resource sector offered better value than others, with GRD Ltd, RCR Tomlinson Ltd and Monadelphous Group Ltd being the top picks.

Among this sector, the most expensive stocks included United Group Ltd, Leighton Holdings Ltd and WorleyParsons Ltd, he added.

He said BHP Billiton Ltd and Rio Tinto Ltd, which comprise 20 per cent of the S&P/ASX 200, were highly priced.

"If Rio goes back to $80 and BHP goes back to $28 to $29, we'll see this market back at 4,800 points, and that's when I'd be looking to pick up some stock."

In a research note on Sunday, brokerage DJ Carmichael said the companies that were merging were acquiring targets with large sums of cash.

"This makes sense in these difficult times of raising debt to build large projects," the brokerage said.

As for future M&A targets, DJ Carmichael singled out Murchison Metals Ltd and Mount Gibson Iron Ore Ltd, as potential targets.

Murchison has cash and liquid investments of about $190 million and Mount Gibson, $120 million.

DJ Carmichael also pointed to Troy Resources NL, a 60,000 ounce-a-year gold producer with $80 million in cash and an enterprise value of about $100 million.

Not only are companies including Moly Mines Ltd facing deferred project development as financing arrangements become increasingly hard to complete, new floats were drying up, DJ Carmichael resources analyst James Wilson said.

While retail investors should be making the most of the current fire sale, they remained averse to risk, Mr Wilson said.

There were "bargains galore" to be had, he said.

 

[Joe Blow]

Can I just remind everyone that if you are quoting another source you must do two things.

1. Not quote the entire article as this infringes copyright. Please only quote a portion of it (say 20%) as this constitues fair use.

2. Always include a link to the original article. If the article is not on the internet you must refer to the publication (title and issue/date) from which it came.

Thank you for your co-operation.

 

[gdaf]

sure - will do in the future. I might add though, that any attempt to police copyright law on a public forum does seem completely futile given the sheer amount, frequency and nature of the medium. I imagine this is something that you 'have to say', however, I really doubt that this breach of copyright could be in any way shape or form tested in a court of law with a successful outcome by the litigating party. Quite simply, even with an IP address being logged, my excuse to the judge in all its rudimentary basic form could be "It wasn't me, I must have left my computer on". Of course, that is provided that the IP was in fact logged to be an IP of my own, and not that of a new user at an internet cafe, university etc etc, the list goes on.

The anonymity of the internet has long been, and will continue to be the thorn in the side of all that stands to be breached in our existing antiquated copyright laws.

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well thanks for the post anyway gdaf read it myself a day or 2 ago and thought another classic case of read between the lines !
Peter Strachan is a big supporter of ARQ and would be well up on the ADI story as well.

 

[Agentm]

hey gdaf, interesting read on the report.. i agree with Lucky_Country, if you read between the lines its fairly obvious the article can be easily misread..

i read it as hosston sands as the duster... and if he had of been a little kinder in elaborating he could have mentioned the potential upside of the secondary which could be equal to if not bigger than the primary ever was capable of.. and a mention of the the significant amount of work conocophillips/TCEI were doing in the region on the austin chalks would have been nice, but the report was just generalizing and not dealing in specifics..

i think at the AGM he was a very vocal, i thought he was slightly aggressive in his questioning, and he showed no respect to the answers given by chris as a geologist to his questions on open hole vs cased and fraced completions.. but he is very up to speed on all things with ADI and ARQ thats for sure.. but with respect to the primary target at sugarloaf, it indeed was a discovery, but the gas was not at commercial quantities, and eme are not convinced the hosston sands are a duster, but i believe for the time being they are looking at the chalks..

 

[Sean K]

Up 34% there goes that downward trend !

Obviously one positive day does not break a downtrend. I always embarass myself when calling technical changes to a company's price action on intra or one day anomalies.

 

[Agentm]

Obviously one positive day does not break a downtrend. I always embarass myself when calling technical changes to a company's price action on intra or one day anomalies.

oouch,, pretty cutting ther kennas!

the only partner in the jvp that got any upside to the AUT presentation was adi, and then it trended down as the news of further wells and a frac on kennedy became more just a case of hot air by AUT and no announcements followed. we are no clearer on timings now than before.. imho the interest in this share will only commence once the announcements are made of timing, and of course, if the frac of kennedy delivers commercial flow.. until then the investors have to endure groundhog days, and the jvp 's will see the market do its thing on them..

 

[TheIceMan]

Just to top things off, a new 12 month low hit today. And our 200K unit buyer at 0.20c has disappeared. Not much interest at all in this ATM. Buy side is about as thin as you can get, i.e 5 buyers for 63,565 units (well, I suppose it could get thinner).

 

[Agentm]

the delays are frustrating, the AUT presentation is a strong indication of how the prospect is viewed none the less. the planning is for more wells and for kennedy to be fraced. all we need to see is the commencement of proceedings.

my view on baker is there is concern there, not so much on the formation producing, but the more the length of time is being taken thus far on dealing with the packer on baker is indicative of further mechanical problems being experienced, and EME have remarked on there being mechanical issues there, and remarked the well was trying to flow whilst drilling and the only solution then was for the drilling to cease and for conoco to flow open hole. it looks like the operation has not gone to plan and thus far no results are known, and we must assume that as long as they are working on the well the plan is still to flow it. the alternative is obviously to redrill.

The half yearly reports all indicated kennedy was next to be tested, and frac designs are on the go currently. those designs must be close to completion right now.. I expect the next news release to be in the vain of frac dates and i can easily see many other things also coming into play.. my own view right now is that there are less and less ground hog days left for ADI to experience.. adi has many projects on the go to also consider. and the AGM last year they did announce they were not looking at one project alone in the coming year, but quite a few..

 

[fflintoff]

BROOKELAND (AUSTIN CHALK, 8800) Oil or Gas Well
15500ft Horizontal
BLACK STONE TAYLOR A-33 UNIT

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/dpimages/img/400000-499999//PR0000442417_0001.pdf

Another Blackstone RRC permit has gone in from Anadarko in Tyler County which is in the analogous field referred to by AUT in their technical update dated 17 Mar.. Horizontal well Completion depth 15500ft.

 

[banska bystrica]

Below 20c looks a formality. Sick as a dog with a flea infestation. Where is this going? Yemen would be worth 10c but does anyone see the need for a capital raising at distressed prices?

 

[Agentm]

BROOKELAND (AUSTIN CHALK, 8800) Oil or Gas Well
15500ft Horizontal
BLACK STONE TAYLOR A-33 UNIT

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/dpimages/img/400000-499999//PR0000442417_0001.pdf

Another Blackstone RRC permit has gone in from Anadarko in Tyler County which is in the analogous field referred to by AUT in their technical update dated 17 Mar.. Horizontal well Completion depth 15500ft.

i know anadarko is well represented on the board with mr fluor from TCEI and the chairman james hackett sits on the board of Fluor corp.. Anadarko is no small fish.. they have done a lot of work in the west texas austin chalks like Geosouthern and meridian have.

Dewitt county has wells worthe following

Goesouthern whom are austin chalk specialists, Buchhorn, a massive dual lateral, which should be close to ready, and the migura permit just went in.

Conoco have Hooks in dewitt county..

In our county, a little closer in we see Conocophillips again drilling for the sugarkane with Bordovsky and Meridian, whom are also specialists in the identical west texas austin chalks, coming in on the sugarkane with their well Drees.

I dont think the credibilty of the chalks play is being harmed with meridian and geosouthern in the area, i think thye are both austin chalk specialists worth keeping an eye on, and conoco certainly are not slowing down with the 2 new wells they are drilling, and the 3d seismics that they are doing throughout..

In the immediate north there is the hawthorn leases , immediately next to ours imho. and their well, the Beynon well, is also worth keeping a close watch on..

who will have the first horizontal on production?? do we have to rely on the two conocophillips horizontals in live oak? baker and kunde 3?

will kennedy be the one?

 

[barney]

Curious to see AUT getting some more buying interest this morning ... over 3 million shares traded .......... while ADI continues to sit idle. Buyers seem happy to pay a higher premium for AUT, so they must perceive the extra land that AUT has as holding more value. Either that, or there is simply not enough volume on the sell side of ADI to accumulate what they want ........

The company could do well to improve their PR skills imo ............. Its a case of no news is not good news ......... A little positivety would go a long way .... Very frustrating............ Then again maybe they want the SP in the low teens so they can pick up the last of the annoyed sellers shares ..... not getting mine just yet.