ADI - Adelphi Energy
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it seems the two issues that gravitate over the jvp is very obvious to all.
1/ the concern over the sp falling
2/ the concern over the the progress on the play
regarding the SP, which is a subject i try to steer clear of as it attracts heated remarks.. i say this
Not much turnover this year on the sp, i remember the weeks where on a day the share turned over $1mill and $500k ..
$52 mill rolling year turnover, so $1 mill a week average.......
so far this year,,,,,,,,, $711,157 .. amazing turnover hey!!
i think the share remains tightly held, with little demand from the buy side. my view is that should geniune buying interest return, and that would happen with any chalks horizontal showing promise, then i believe the demand for the jvp's share may return and deliver a far stronger share price.. All imho and DYOR
over the past 5 days i have researched the entire leasing situation on all the permits related to conocophillips... the story is very very interesting for me and just reaffirms the vastness of this play..
when i map the leases in each advocates name, i get solid blocks of leases in each advovcates name, joining on end to end along that 60 - 70 mile long tend, so i can see very clearly why conocophillips would be slow on wells being tested.. but now that they are putting drilling permits in right along the trend, my view is is that they are not so concerned any more on the secrecy part of the equation, the 90% of landowners are signed up, and it takes some years, and a lot of effort to sign up the thousands of leases they have sucured.. our little JVP is only aware of our little universe, i have said all along that to be aware that the play could easily be larger than the jvp has been letting on. back then the average punter was having trouble grappling with this
SUGARKANE PLAY AREA
>3 TCF and ~500mmbbls in
>3 TCF and ~500mmbbls in
upper Chalk zone only
Based on area, productivity & 160 acre spacing
.STILL LARGELY UNTESTED
so as far as the investors in sugarkane are concerned, the world of sugar is 200,000 acres.. my view is that conoco has secured acreages that multiply it many times over..
IMHO the unconventional chalks play picked up by the burlington TCEI jvp years ago, which conocophillips took over, was given the green light a long time ago by conocophillips, they have secured an amazing tract of acreages, and our jvp by default has been fortunate enough to have 20,000 acres right in the middle of it.. (well actually its left of centre really)
I have seen a lot of leasing activity in karnes, liveoak, dewitt, and gonzales and atascosia and bee, the play seems to even run through to lavanca as well with lease buying! i look forward to the upcoming results from the chalks wells in live oak, and i hope the other wells conocophillips are drilling right now are not completed and put on production before our kennedy well is!
Lucky_Country
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No news just like watching paint dry !
3 times as many buyers as sellers and not many willing too give their shares away.
When can we expect some news thats the question ?
3 times as many buyers as sellers and not many willing too give their shares away.
When can we expect some news thats the question ?
Sean K
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3 times as many buyers as sellers
Perhaps my market depth is out of whack.
Not too many willing to give their shares away? Is that a positive thing? Those who are willing have let it drop 8%...
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3 times as many buyers as sellers
Perhaps my market depth is out of whack.
Not too many willing to give their shares away? Is that a positive thing? Those who are willing have let it drop 8%...
you think that's strange, Kennas.
Check out the buys v's sells on EKA
Now almost 9 to 1
Lucky_Country
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3 times as many buyers as sellers
Perhaps my market depth is out of whack.
Not too many willing to give their shares away? Is that a positive thing? Those who are willing have let it drop 8%...
Cant understand why you would sell now ?
At its bottom testing results within the next month Id hope or at most 2 months.
ADI also have a habbit of springing suprises eg Finish testing SL 1 then 1 week later they have producede 59 boe.
There way of rewarding the few loyal holders left.
You just have to accept that ADI is groundhog day revisited. One of these days you will wake up in the morning and find a new and different day has dawned. Maybe it will be fine and sunny with plenty of fruit on the vine or ? . We won't go into the "or".
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Groundhog day alright! Not much 'rewarding' going on until they can get their act together over in texas. There is simply no way what they are doing can take this long and they have had many a c*ck ups along the way just to keep things ultra fun. I am still confident however that eventually they will get commercial flow. I think all the loyal holders who wanted in have been in for 18months now and are in a position where they can't afford to sell. That is probably also why the volume is so low, just my opinion.
Lucky_Country
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Well the frustrating thing about being a shareholder in ADI is the uncertainty during these times.
Things obviously take time and cannot be rushed but waiting for some news is just a grind but why sell ?
Shareprice has dropped dramatically but ADI not alone in that respect but with that in mind ADI s prospects are far greater now than they were before they started drilling with the news that we do know.
3 zones of interest, 59 boe produced, K1 horizontal drilled with good readings and almost 2 years closer too an outcome than where we were in 2006 yet the sp is lower !
You gotta think there is some lack of reasoning in the market lately !
Things obviously take time and cannot be rushed but waiting for some news is just a grind but why sell ?
Shareprice has dropped dramatically but ADI not alone in that respect but with that in mind ADI s prospects are far greater now than they were before they started drilling with the news that we do know.
3 zones of interest, 59 boe produced, K1 horizontal drilled with good readings and almost 2 years closer too an outcome than where we were in 2006 yet the sp is lower !
You gotta think there is some lack of reasoning in the market lately !
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nioka
now that eka is practically the same value as adi, and lets say there was any volume available in adi which there isnt, would you think a few EKA holders could see the benifit in jumping to adi, as it has a considerable higher leverage in sugarkane? then jumping again back to eka if adi rose any time in the future? your way of trading these jvps has got me thinking..
if anyone out there is following the pioneer wells and looking closely at the completion reports like i have been, can you PM me if your observing the same thing i am regarding the number of pioneer wells that as horizontals appear to be in the austin chalk and ending only just inside the edwards formation. . its becoming very interesting that conoco are appearing so close to them and imho chasing the same targets.. particularily interested in recent completions like the sawfish cluster in dewitt...
now that eka is practically the same value as adi, and lets say there was any volume available in adi which there isnt, would you think a few EKA holders could see the benifit in jumping to adi, as it has a considerable higher leverage in sugarkane? then jumping again back to eka if adi rose any time in the future? your way of trading these jvps has got me thinking..
if anyone out there is following the pioneer wells and looking closely at the completion reports like i have been, can you PM me if your observing the same thing i am regarding the number of pioneer wells that as horizontals appear to be in the austin chalk and ending only just inside the edwards formation. . its becoming very interesting that conoco are appearing so close to them and imho chasing the same targets.. particularily interested in recent completions like the sawfish cluster in dewitt...
Probably worthwhile but the volumes being traded make it hard. So far my last switch, AUT to ADI, hasn't paid off and I would have been better to stay with AUT. If only we had been to the future and knew what happened to Sugarloaf. My concern is that we hang on and lose out with a takeover at the last minute. I've had that happen to me with Aztec and Allegience. I made some profit on both but not the big gain from production. That is the good side of ADI, there is very little turnover, making a takeover less likely unless ARQ give in.nioka
now that eka is practically the same value as adi, and lets say there was any volume available in adi which there isnt, would you think a few EKA holders could see the benifit in jumping to adi, as it has a considerable higher leverage in sugarkane? then jumping again back to eka if adi rose any time in the future? your way of trading these jvps has got me thinking..
...
Of course the market cap of EKA is only half that of ADI and with a 12.5% share of sugarloaf against 20% for ADI, they are probably at a comparative value. The way things are dragging they may both run low on cash.
In other words and judging by my confusing answer, I don't know.
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sorry nioka,, missed the reply..
hindsight is a wonderful thing. and your observations on the takeovers is interesting. i dont think adi has any ambition to be taken over, arq is too big a block. and i believe outfits like ADI and EKA were set upfor the sugarkane myself.. the O&G exploration sector is very well represented, maybe a lot of consolidation and merging will occur as time goes by..
things are progressing imho, the amount of time since the last eme announcement makes it hard to believe why the announcements that should come out of live oak are not upon us. we see conoco finish a well in dewitt and about to start one in karnes county and we are still waiting for some positive indications on the austin chalk horizontals of conocophillips in live oak. if conoco are happy to drill away in karnes then our jvp should feel equally confident as well imho..
hindsight is a wonderful thing. and your observations on the takeovers is interesting. i dont think adi has any ambition to be taken over, arq is too big a block. and i believe outfits like ADI and EKA were set upfor the sugarkane myself.. the O&G exploration sector is very well represented, maybe a lot of consolidation and merging will occur as time goes by..
things are progressing imho, the amount of time since the last eme announcement makes it hard to believe why the announcements that should come out of live oak are not upon us. we see conoco finish a well in dewitt and about to start one in karnes county and we are still waiting for some positive indications on the austin chalk horizontals of conocophillips in live oak. if conoco are happy to drill away in karnes then our jvp should feel equally confident as well imho..
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10% of the this years turnover in one trading day.. a touch out of character with the amazingly low volumes for the past months..
so is something about to happen then?
so is something about to happen then?
Anything would be better than what is occurring ATM. Call it "death by a thousand cuts"? Maybe comparing it to water torture would be a better analogy. Most of us just want to be put out of our misery.
Highest daily volume since mid Nov last year.
Highest daily volume since mid Nov last year.
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It is finely good to see some volume, but at a 2% drop probably not the best way to head. I would like an update from Captain Chaos as to where we are in Texas, even just timeframes will shut us up for another month. I now know how Geelong felt waiting to win the AFL grand final, it is a long time between drinks. If we find what we are after the drinks are on me !!!!!
In January ADI wrote "Further updates will be provided upon commencement of these operations." Refering to the completion of K1H. You think they will tell us before they start pushing water down the tube?
Maybe we will know more soon.
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The completion of kennedy 1H will not happen until operations in live oak are advanced to a stage where it can be of use to TCEI.. imho we will definately be updated on everything once TCEI is clear on what they can successfully do in that well..
Calling AgentM - I need your opinion (or anyone else for that matter).
What is going on today? Nearly 2 million shares traded so far today. Virtually all at 0.225. I can understand that there could be sudden interest in this even though there is no news to suggest it. What I can't understand is, where have all the sellers come from?
This was tightly held, then all of a sudden, plenty of sellers to accomodate the buyers at 0.225???
Doesn't make a lot of sense to me - but what would I know?
What is going on today? Nearly 2 million shares traded so far today. Virtually all at 0.225. I can understand that there could be sudden interest in this even though there is no news to suggest it. What I can't understand is, where have all the sellers come from?
This was tightly held, then all of a sudden, plenty of sellers to accomodate the buyers at 0.225???
Doesn't make a lot of sense to me - but what would I know?
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Calling AgentM - I need your opinion (or anyone else for that matter).
What is going on today? Nearly 2 million shares traded so far today. Virtually all at 0.225. I can understand that there could be sudden interest in this even though there is no news to suggest it. What I can't understand is, where have all the sellers come from?
This was tightly held, then all of a sudden, plenty of sellers to accomodate the buyers at 0.225???
Doesn't make a lot of sense to me - but what would I know?
Could be just a transfer of holdings, but the fact that half of the the last 500,000 share order is still in the queue indicates someone is/has been happy mopping up the sellers who want to get out (If that order stays at close of trade I wonder how many sellers will take advantage? For the moment they have gone quiet) ............. There will no doubt be a few stale bulls on the road to recovery, but if todays price action turns out to be fair dinkum, then the current level should be close to the bottom ..... thats my take on it anyway .... could be wrong.
..... Very little change on the major shareholders as at 29th Feb ..... Will be interesting to see if that 2 million traded shows up there next month ............ Very happy to see those trades go through today ..... I see it as positive .... If it is accumulation, there is every chance the money is "smart" imho ...... time will tell of course.
