ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Agentm]

just curious prawn,,

what do you think will make the sp go somewhere? your saying its going nowhere fast.. its been .25 and up to .35 and a lot have added the tiny offerings in the lows.. it seems to be at about .30 levels right now..
mr hypothetical may just have missed the lowest buying price by sitting on the side lines.. risk / reward,, buying at .25 and selling at .35 could have made a handy 71.42857142857143 %

opportunity missed hey!!

As a larger holder in this share i cant buy the amounts i hold in a moment and the circumstances facing all holders and all buyers is that there is not the turnover available for many to get on unless your picking away with tiny trades.

nice to see your soley doing this with only adi, and not with any of the other oil and gas shares on the asf site, its obviously extremely important to you to make a point of what your doing.. but it wont change my trading style at all, i invest for an outcome and hold and add and as i wish.

best of luck..

banska.. what delays is your broker talking about?

 

[blues]

I have spoken to all 3 JVP's in the last week and have noticed a distinct changing in attitude. In the past month or so when talking to them they all trotted out the same line that they are awaiting the results of testing nearby and that the plan to learn from that experience before testing Kennedy. Now you sense and they all mentioned their frustration with progress and that this has been conveyed to the Operator. The JVP's have been or still are in the US discussing issues and timing with the Operator. In my discussions with the JVP's you get the feeling the JVP's have told the Operator to get on with it. I am not sure how much notice they will take of 3 little aussie companies. It was also mentioned by 2 of the 3 JVP's that they expected testing of Kennedy to begin within weeks. I will believe that when I see it!!

Cheers.

 

[prawn_86]

just curious prawn,,

what do you think will make the sp go somewhere? your saying its going nowhere fast.. its been .25 and up to .35 and a lot have added the tiny offerings in the lows.. it seems to be at about .30 levels right now..
mr hypothetical may just have missed the lowest buying price by sitting on the side lines.. risk / reward,, buying at .25 and selling at .35 could have made a handy 71.42857142857143 %

opportunity missed hey!!

As a larger holder in this share i cant buy the amounts i hold in a moment and the circumstances facing all holders and all buyers is that there is not the turnover available for many to get on unless your picking away with tiny trades.

nice to see your soley doing this with only adi, and not with any of the other oil and gas shares on the asf site, its obviously extremely important to you to make a point of what your doing.. but it wont change my trading style at all, i invest for an outcome and hold and add and as i wish.

I agree that there are many other trading styles and that everyone has their preffered style. Thats what makes the market what it is.

The reason i am doing it for ADI is that it has constantly been talked up about how progress is been made and that results are never far off or must be coming out soon.

I also stated that buying into a downward trend has risks, hence the 2 different styles of the hypotheticals.

I also stated that Mr H2 would be buying on what he considers a major announcement, not trading 'small' ranges. A lot of posters here seem to think that if the right peice of news does come through then there will be a huge huge gain on offer, which is what Mr H2 is after. Although that 70 odd % would have been nice, it wasnt due to any announcement, hence didnt set off an alert.

 

[Agentm]

I agree that there are many other trading styles and that everyone has their preffered style. Thats what makes the market what it is.

The reason i am doing it for ADI is that it has constantly been talked up about how progress is been made and that results are never far off or must be coming out soon.

I also stated that buying into a downward trend has risks, hence the 2 different styles of the hypotheticals.

I also stated that Mr H2 would be buying on what he considers a major announcement, not trading 'small' ranges. A lot of posters here seem to think that if the right peice of news does come through then there will be a huge huge gain on offer, which is what Mr H2 is after. Although that 70 odd % would have been nice, it wasnt due to any announcement, hence didnt set off an alert.

happy to comment on this again, regarding the results never being far off, can you be specific about what announcements you are expecting.

re trading styles, i dont get yours at all, you put money in the bank and dont have the balls to trade,, whats that about????


as for the 70% gain, you say it had nothing to do with any announcements. you are toally incorrect on that. on the 21st january two announcements were made, both of which were positive to ADI. one was NWE announcing cosmos as a partner in the timor sea deal and the free carry of the next offshore well for adi, and the other was the roadshow presentation announcement.. the sp went up 70% on that alone!! which is shocking decision making on your part imho, why do you choose to miss an opportunity like that and then have the gaul to ridicule a stock you dont have any shares in and say the sp "has gone nowhere" when you clearly missed the 2 announcements and simply wont accept your error! its an insult to those that added to say the sp is going nowhere prawn... they were smart, your inabilty to see it speaks for itself..

get real prawn, your timing is hopeless and if your making poor judgements like that and missing 70% jumps, then dont come on a thread and say the sp is going no where.. you simply dont like the share and as a moderator your able to ridicule a share without fear! if i did the same on any thread i would be called up for it prawn,, the share went up 70% and you simply dont know how to invest at the right time..

a 70% jump is not a "small range" prawn.. you may not have the potential to see a major announcement, but cosmo energy is no small fry and the timor sea deal is a great prospect, its a major announcement and if you care to read the one adi put out later you will see how they feel about it..


prawn you dont need to be hypothetical any more, if you remained neutral and didnt make degrading comments on the shareprice because you missed two announcements and a 70% leap, and now you want mr hypothetical to leap on board some other point,, its a joke prawn..

you either have the balls to invest and take the risk for the reward or you dont,, thats clearly the only way to make headway on a O&G explorer..

all imho and dyor..

 

[chops_a_must]

happy to comment on this again, regarding the results never being far off, can you be specific about what announcements you are expecting.

re trading styles, i dont get yours at all, you put money in the bank and dont have the balls to trade,, whats that about????


as for the 70% gain, you say it had nothing to do with any announcements. you are toally incorrect on that. on the 21st january two announcements were made, both of which were positive to ADI. one was NWE announcing cosmos as a partner in the timor sea deal and the free carry of the next offshore well for adi, and the other was the roadshow presentation announcement.. the sp went up 70% on that alone!! which is shocking decision making on your part imho, why do you choose to miss an opportunity like that and then have the gaul to ridicule a stock you dont have any shares in and say the sp "has gone nowhere" when you clearly missed the 2 announcements and simply wont accept your error! its an insult to those that added to say the sp is going nowhere prawn... they were smart, your inabilty to see it speaks for itself..

get real prawn, your timing is hopeless and if your making poor judgements like that and missing 70% jumps, then dont come on a thread and say the sp is going no where.. you simply dont like the share and as a moderator your able to ridicule a share without fear! if i did the same on any thread i would be called up for it prawn,, the share went up 70% and you simply dont know how to invest at the right time..

a 70% jump is not a "small range" prawn.. you may not have the potential to see a major announcement, but cosmo energy is no small fry and the timor sea deal is a great prospect, its a major announcement and if you care to read the one adi put out later you will see how they feel about it..


prawn you dont need to be hypothetical any more, if you remained neutral and didnt make degrading comments on the shareprice because you missed two announcements and a 70% leap, and now you want mr hypothetical to leap on board some other point,, its a joke prawn..

you either have the balls to invest and take the risk for the reward or you dont,, thats clearly the only way to make headway on a O&G explorer..

all imho and dyor..

AgentM, you are a tool.

You have been ramping this stock for near on 18 months and in that time it has lost more than 2/3rds of its value.

You'd be a pretty good used car salesman I'd reckon, because ADI is a dog and a joke.

And the only bad trading involved in this is holding in it like you seem to be doing. And lashing out at those who do see what a joke this stock is, makes that even more apparent.

If you guys weren't so busy spooning Mr Forke, you might be able to see it for what it is.

 

[Agentm]

AgentM, you are a tool.

You have been ramping this stock for near on 18 months and in that time it has lost more than 2/3rds of its value.

You'd be a pretty good used car salesman I'd reckon, because ADI is a dog and a joke.

And the only bad trading involved in this is holding in it like you seem to be doing. And lashing out at those who do see what a joke this stock is, makes that even more apparent.

If you guys weren't so busy spooning Mr Forke, you might be able to see it for what it is.

chops your just a insulting and abusive,, as usual..

firstly if i was ramping then this would happen..

6. Any post that is simply a blatant ramp of a stock will be deleted. Continued ramping will result in the suspension of your Aussie Stock Forums account.


and as for the code of conduct on abuse.. try and follow it

2. All members will treat other members with the utmost respect at all times. This means insults, name calling, personal attacks and the abuse of other members in any way are strictly forbidden. Please, treat other members as you yourself would wish to be treated. Offenders will be warned once and then have their account suspended from Aussie Stock Forums for a period of time to be determined by the administrator.

but i gather this wont be the case with you and you will continue on without being called up for it..

cheers

 

[chops_a_must]

chops your just a insulting and abusive,, as usual..

firstly if i was ramping then this would happen..

6. Any post that is simply a blatant ramp of a stock will be deleted. Continued ramping will result in the suspension of your Aussie Stock Forums account.


and as for the code of conduct on abuse.. try and follow it

2. All members will treat other members with the utmost respect at all times. This means insults, name calling, personal attacks and the abuse of other members in any way are strictly forbidden. Please, treat other members as you yourself would wish to be treated. Offenders will be warned once and then have their account suspended from Aussie Stock Forums for a period of time to be determined by the administrator.

but i gather this wont be the case with you and you will continue on without being called up for it..

cheers

So when you effectively say to a mod, "you don't have balls", that's not an insult?

Ramping can take many forms. Continual posting when nothing is happening, to me, is a ramp. Trying to persuade others to buy is a ramp. Insinuating that others don't know what is what because they aren't buying is a ramp. I have read nothing of yours that has come to fruition. Continual speculation on your behalf, when nothing is happening is a ramp. But as always DYOR and IMHOO.

To me, ADI is terminal. If you were able to short it, you wouldn't have been stopped out on a short trade since November.

 

[Agentm]

So when you effectively say to a mod, "you don't have balls", that's not an insult?

Ramping can take many forms. Continual posting when nothing is happening, to me, is a ramp. Trying to persuade others to buy is a ramp. Insinuating that others don't know what is what because they aren't buying is a ramp. I have read nothing of yours that has come to fruition. Continual speculation on your behalf, when nothing is happening is a ramp. But as always DYOR and IMHOO.

To me, ADI is terminal. If you were able to short it, you wouldn't have been stopped out on a short trade since November.

you so blind you cant even quote in context chops..

"you either have the balls to invest and take the risk for the reward or you dont,, thats clearly the only way to make headway on a O&G explorer.."

if you think i am ramping then report it, the mods are checking everything and you can abuse freely and have no consequence for it, thats all i see..

as for your own version of ramping.. claims of posting when nothing happens.. i dont agree.. i post information about the play and all of which has come to fruition..

your opinions on adi are well known chops.. and your constant abuse to me never ceases..

 

[chops_a_must]

you so blind you cant even quote in context chops..

"you either have the balls to invest and take the risk for the reward or you dont,, thats clearly the only way to make headway on a O&G explorer.."

if you think i am ramping then report it, the mods are checking everything and you can abuse freely and have no consequence for it, thats all i see..

as for your own version of ramping.. claims of posting when nothing happens.. i dont agree.. i post information about the play and all of which has come to fruition..

your opinions on adi are well known chops.. and your constant abuse to me never ceases..

You can't even quote the passage I was referring to.

I'm sure you are very well aware of what you are doing. Not too many threads attract this level of mod activity. Because I'm sure they are bright enough to know when someone is ramping something without it being a blatant ramp. I don't think you did any favours when you bulk messaged that "Keep The Faith on SL" private message.

And FWIW when I see complete nonsense posted, I'll pipe up, like here. Your comment that I responded to was complete bollocks.

And I'd like to know what exactly has come to fruition. The numbers you posted at the end of 2006, or the extensive drilling programme?

I only criticise you in this thread, so any claims of constant abuse are spurious. And your thrashing only confirms my suspicions that you must be losing an absolute packet on this.

 

[Agentm]

www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/member.chops_a_must

This message is hidden because chops_a_must is on your inore list




i have to say chops, its the first time i have put anyone on ignore here, but your just not worth reading.. i have yet to see a post from you that has not called the stock a dog and where you have not been abusive towards me.. if you wanted to discuss adi i would be read some your commentary, but unfortunately your not into discussing the share..

 

[prawn_86]

Firstly guys,

Both cut the abuse.

Chops is right in saying that you are out of line by saying I "dont have the balls" Agent. However he probably also did cross the line a couple times.

Secondly lets not forget why I did this scenario in the first place.

I'm no chartist, but the ADI chart certainly looks very very unhealthy to me.

If I was looking to buy this, even on fundamentals, I would wait till the chart at least leveled out, especially in current market conditions.

Double (or triple) top has formed and now in a vicious downtrend. Resistance previously to this 9 month chart was at $1.

RB,

I can find plenty of stocks that have gone sideways or dropped a lot over the same time period as that chart.

My point is, in current market and stock trending conditions you are almost assured to lose value on paper in the short to medium term if no announcements come.

If you wanted wait for an announcement, then why not just set up an alert so you can check every announcement they release and jump onboard early if you think it is worthwhile.

At least this way your $ will be working elsewhere and not in a downward trend, and you can still have the upside of a big announcement. Even if it gaps up a bit, it is probably the same as if you buy now and the value drifts lower in the current trend.

EG (purely fictional):
buy now @ 37c hold for a month price at 30c.
watch for announcement and buy then. Price gaps from 30 - 36c (20% gap) and all else is equal plus your cash has been employed better over a month.
It wouldnt work this 'nicely' though

So far my fictional scenario was on the money.

Thirdly,

Agent you are beginning to destroy your credibilty. You have been saying for months that results must be soon. Here is just a few that I have randomly clicked on page numbers and found. They have been edited for brevity due to the length of some of the posts. But all are essentially stating results must be soon, along with some other info.

next few weeks are news weeks according to tom at EME..

lets see if he is right..

The Kennedy testing will commence soon after one of the Sugarkane horizontal wells has been tested. We don’t have a firm timetable as yet.

i shouldnt think we should put the directors emails on forums too much, it may not be good practice as they usually dont expect them on the forums.. but none the less, the news is accurate as i see it..

time for the curtains to be raised on the show i hear, kunde results any day, and then kennedy to follow. i cant account for the share price as in my view its great value for the potential outcome, dont ask me to buy more as i cant.. i am not in this share for a 50 bcf outcome, i fully expect the wells will deliver far more..

this kennedy well would have to be close to completion now in terms of drilling, i gather the next good news is the announcement of puting in production casing.

That kennedy 1H well is looking very encouraging

Kennedy 1H is getting nearer to its completion, forward well program must be just around the corner..

looking good imho

Finally, unless the discussion is relevant to ADI or the hypothetical scenarios and put forth in an appropriate manner, further posts on the matter will be removed.

Please contact me via PM if there are any problems with this, so as not to clutter this thread further.

 

[ScottMG]

I for one appreciate all the research your do AgentM. Daily i look for your updates. Back in Oct / Nov we used to get Wednesday company ann almost every week. I believe in this stock and only wish i had more cash around to buy more. Keep up all your good work AgentM and dont be put off by others negative comments.

 

[prawn_86]

I for one appreciate all the research your do AgentM. Daily i look for your updates. Back in Oct / Nov we used to get Wednesday company ann almost every week. I believe in this stock and only wish i had more cash around to buy more. Keep up all your good work AgentM and dont be put off by others negative comments.

There is no doubt that Agent puts in a hell of a lot of research.

The main point my contrarian view is trying to make is the fact that the opportunity cost of holding this one over the past few months has been massive. The company always seems to be getting closer to releasing results, but never actually do.

Ultimately something will happen be it up or down, but my "negative" view, is just an alternative, that sometimes holders do not like to hear.

 

[megla]

I too am happy with Agent's postings. I figure anyone wanting to get into this stock would have plenty of information provided to them with over 3000 posts!

On a side note, with the losses being experienced by many of us and the negative sentiment around, this banter going on between these two is some good comedy - is just too funny - you can't pay for entertainment like this

 

[Gspot]

There is no doubt that Agent puts in a hell of a lot of research.

The main point my contrarian view is trying to make is the fact that the opportunity cost of holding this one over the past few months has been massive. The company always seems to be getting closer to releasing results, but never actually do.

Ultimately something will happen be it up or down, but my "negative" view, is just an alternative, that sometimes holders do not like to hear.

I don't like hearing your 'negative views' prawn, but your right. Been going for years now and still just around the corner. No offence to Agent M and his info but........
I posted a while back, that the yanks could delay results, as to hurt the little jvp's, and this still seems likely.
Not being racist, but I don't trust Americans.

 

[Agentm]

I don't like hearing your 'negative views' prawn, but your right. Been going for years now and still just around the corner. No offence to Agent M and his info but........
I posted a while back, that the yanks could delay results, as to hurt the little jvp's, and this still seems likely.
Not being racist, but I don't trust Americans.

in an unfortunate circumstance, if i answer prawn i risk him coming down on me and then face being banned, those quotes by prawn, each and every one of them, have followed with a news announcement,

i have pointed out to him via PM that each of those quotes did follow with announcements from the jvp's, and have asked the post be removed..

if its my credibility on the line, the i expect to be able to be allowed to post the announcements prior to and after each of those quotes to prove that what prawn says about my credibility is false..

further he is claiming i abused chops, utter fancy, i have only had a one way barrage of abuse from him for over a year, and a further claim i abused him, again utter fancy, i deny both of those claims.

for me, to be misquoted by prawn and have this follow is staggering..

"Finally, unless the discussion is relevant to ADI or the hypothetical scenarios and put forth in an appropriate manner, further posts on the matter will be removed.

Please contact me via PM if there are any problems with this, so as not to clutter this thread further. "


so i guess this post gets removed and no matter what i wont be able to answer and correct allegations on my credibility.. pretty poor imho

 

[Go Fast]

To whoever it was looking to short ADI - I'm happy for you to borrow 200,000 of mine to sell through the market at around todays prices..... I'm confident with the story & the risk vs reward equation. I'd love to see you chasing that volume in the event of good news. Could cost you alot of money. Problem with shorting - limited upside but unlimited downside.

There's still further news flowing around about the fields nearby. I'm not surprised there was a seller or two today.

In my mind it's a April/May story.... so waiting til then.

 

[prawn_86]

Agent,

Once again...

As I have said before, it is not that news hasn't been released by the company. Hell at one stage they were releasing updates all the time.

It is the fact that still nothing seems to have happened, especially on the SP front.

The opportunity cost of buying into these guys when they were 80c or $1 has/would have been massive if people continued to hold. Especially as it has seemed this whole time that the 'big' news is only a few weeks away, or just around the corner, or should be here soon etc etc.

 

[Agentm]

Agent,

Once again...

As I have said before, it is not that news hasn't been released by the company. Hell at one stage they were releasing updates all the time.

It is the fact that still nothing seems to have happened, especially on the SP front.

The opportunity cost of buying into these guys when they were 80c or $1 has/would have been massive if people continued to hold. Especially as it has seemed this whole time that the 'big' news is only a few weeks away, or just around the corner, or should be here soon etc etc.

prawn,

happy to reply..

the hosston sands was not so much a big deal and updates came through all the time, that target ended some time ago, i hope your not confusing the two?? these prices your quoting was in the era of the hosston sands.. that target was found to flow but not at commercial quantities..

nothing will happen on the sp front unless the formation flows in the horizontal wells, so you may feel stressed out about it, and others may be, but for me i am not concerned about the daily sp..

if i was selling today i would be concerned, but i am not, i am holding for the outcome of the testing of the wells in the sugarkane.

the sugarkane is an unconventional play, the way i see it with respect to the sp, is that the play cant be realised and hold value until the commercial flow is achieved from the wells drilled so far. currently conoco has two types of wells to be tested, one is a cased well that is to be fraced and flow tested and put on production, the other is a horizontal well that is open hole and wont be fraced. these two wells are experimental wells, like kennedy can be considered to be.. i will post some info from adi to explain, but essentially , the share price is just a reflection of how optimistic people are in the prospectivity of the sugarkane.

what is known about the suagrkane is that it flows on the vertical, and has 3 times the gas value in condensate, so its very very attractive as a prospect..

what is known is that it flowed from the baker horizontal, with massive mud weights in it, so its likely to flow very nicely with no mud against the formation, or thats the theory and thats why its to be tested open hole..

but adi said this about kennedy..

Based on the joint venture’s interpretation of this play’s
potential in the area combined with production and early
appraisal drilling results from the nearby Sugarkane Field
(which is operated by a major international oil and gas
company), our joint venture has successfully pursued
an aggressive leasing program which has resulted in our
acreage position having increased to over 20,000 acres
of mineral rights for the Austin Chalk play. We have also
now commenced the drilling of the first horizontal well
within our leases which is designed to provide further​

critical reservoir and production data.


now prawn, when your drilling a well designed to do that, you have to also understand theres not a lot of cash around to drill a bunch of them.. tcei asked the jvp if they would wait for kunde 3 to frac and thereby relieve the jvp of high costs of frac experimentation.. the jvps agreed, and thus far the wait for the frac that began on kunde 3 in november 2007 is still to be announced. we are aware the fracing happened in december, and imho they are still continuing the frac program and experimentation as before.

so there will be little sp relief imho until the results from the wells in live oak being worked by conocophillips are finshed up ..

The delay in testing was due to a number of commercial
and operational factors including an extensive
leasing program to enable us to lease additional
land to fully capitalise on any discovery. We believe
we have discovered a new play in this part of Texas
– so with 80 square kilometres (20,000 acres) under
lease, we are now in a position to fully benefit from a​

successful outcome.

this for kennedy in the last quarterly:

The timing of the testing program remains subject to
the finalisation of an optimal program design as well as equipment availability but the intent is that the well will be tested as soon as possible.​

The timing of the fracture stimulation and testing program is yet to be confirmed by the operator, Texas Crude Energy, Inc. pending optimisation and joint venture agreement of the program design as well as availability of suitable equipment.​

but in terms of the big news!! there seriously isnt any big news around the corner, for me the formation flows vertical, did so at baker horizontal, and is about to be put on production test at baker imho.. and for others the formation is no good, they need to save the world from people investing in the share, and conocophillips has some conspiracy going in trying to squeeze out the jvp!! what a joke that is, when they are doing all the R&D right now!​

so when the wells flow near by prawn, there wont be any big news,, everything is already understood and out there.. sorry to dissappoint..​

 

[resourceboom]

Chill out dudes, the wait goes on, business as normal for the JVPS

I was originally interested in Prawns thoughts on the 2 mr hypotheticals, as I find it an interesting dilemma. I have a core holding of JVP shares, but am thinking of getting some trading shares, but think I will probably only jump in once we finally get some good news (read flows announced).

Hopefully the sp doesn't get further caned in the meantime.