ADI - Adelphi Energy
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Very little new stuff there except the explanation about water coming into the well while testing zone 3. Looks like the wait continues. My understanding from talking with the JVP's in the last week is they dont know when testing will commence. Could be days, weeks or months. It is about time they got some answers as the shareholders left are well and truly over the wait!
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looking at zone 3, i think a lot has been learned..
the barnett shale is a good case to observe, they found in the vertical they got deeper water coming into the wells just as sugarloaf 1 has.
this from todays quarterly
"The results of this pressure buildup conducted after the flow tests showed that the pressure was significantly below that expected for the chalk zone based on offset well data, thus indicating that the well is now pressure connected to a zone outside of the target chalk. The water saturated Buda and Edwards Formations have pressures significantly below the objective chalk and similar to the final buildup pressure.
The most likely explanation for the observed gas/condensate and water flows and the changes over time of associated chlorides and other constituents within the water produced is that the frac propagated into the chalk zone but also extended deeper into the Buda and Edwards
Formations. The gas and condensate initially flowed from the objective chalk section along with some water from the frac operation. When the pressure of the gas/condensate from the chalk zone was drawn down to approximately the pressure of the Buda and Edwards, formation water from this deeper interval commenced flowing. The formation water then choked further flow of gas and condensate from the chalk.
In summary, the lowermost zone of the chalk has now been tested to the extent feasible within this vertical well and for the reasons set out above will not be tested further by this well.
Further testing of the two upper chalk zones in this well has been deferred until after the results of the Kennedy 1H well flow test (see below). "
i am posting a few diagrams from the barnett shale , one demonstrates exactly what sugarloaf 1 has just experienced, and the other demonstrates what process worked the best for the unconventional play, horizontal drilling, with well engineered frac processes.
so far we have:
Kunde 1 testing the upper zone. Zone 1. no formation water from below
Sugarloaf 1, testing lower chalks, Zone 3 with Frac, Draws edwards formation water, as per barnett shale experience..
Kunde 3 about to produce same formation (zone 1) in a horizontal. With a frac..
Baker 1 testing in a shortened horizontal, (Zone 1) No frac
Sugarloaf 1 is merely proving what can and cant be done with the zone 3 lower chalks, and in no way can i see the jvp ignoring the zone 3 chalks for future exploration with horizontals..
the barnett shale is a good case to observe, they found in the vertical they got deeper water coming into the wells just as sugarloaf 1 has.
this from todays quarterly
"The results of this pressure buildup conducted after the flow tests showed that the pressure was significantly below that expected for the chalk zone based on offset well data, thus indicating that the well is now pressure connected to a zone outside of the target chalk. The water saturated Buda and Edwards Formations have pressures significantly below the objective chalk and similar to the final buildup pressure.
The most likely explanation for the observed gas/condensate and water flows and the changes over time of associated chlorides and other constituents within the water produced is that the frac propagated into the chalk zone but also extended deeper into the Buda and Edwards
Formations. The gas and condensate initially flowed from the objective chalk section along with some water from the frac operation. When the pressure of the gas/condensate from the chalk zone was drawn down to approximately the pressure of the Buda and Edwards, formation water from this deeper interval commenced flowing. The formation water then choked further flow of gas and condensate from the chalk.
In summary, the lowermost zone of the chalk has now been tested to the extent feasible within this vertical well and for the reasons set out above will not be tested further by this well.
Further testing of the two upper chalk zones in this well has been deferred until after the results of the Kennedy 1H well flow test (see below). "
i am posting a few diagrams from the barnett shale , one demonstrates exactly what sugarloaf 1 has just experienced, and the other demonstrates what process worked the best for the unconventional play, horizontal drilling, with well engineered frac processes.
so far we have:
Kunde 1 testing the upper zone. Zone 1. no formation water from below
Sugarloaf 1, testing lower chalks, Zone 3 with Frac, Draws edwards formation water, as per barnett shale experience..
Kunde 3 about to produce same formation (zone 1) in a horizontal. With a frac..
Baker 1 testing in a shortened horizontal, (Zone 1) No frac
Sugarloaf 1 is merely proving what can and cant be done with the zone 3 lower chalks, and in no way can i see the jvp ignoring the zone 3 chalks for future exploration with horizontals..
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with the pending frac of Kunde 3, i think these following diagrams of the use of geophones in the barnett shale best show what the Conocophillips/TCEI camp are currently doing there in live oak.
Conoco have drilled kunde 2 into all the 3 zones, very close to kunde 3. and the geophones used in the frac will pick up valuable data that can determine what type of frac process can best suit the horizontals to aid in understandings and establish and engineer frac designs that will best suit the horizontal wells productivity. they will show exactly whether the frac is inside the zones they want or not.. and if you understand what zone 3 at SL1 brought up from the edwards below, effectively killing the zone 3 production, , then you will also understand why the frac process can be critical to the success of the well.
Our jvp have learned a lot from all driling so far and the two fracs done in kunde 1 and in particular also with sugarloaf 1. these horizontal wells are expensive and TCEI has decided, with the agreement of the jvp's, for them to not duplicate the high costs of drilling a well near kennedy and replicating this process, but because the goelogy is identical in the region, they are saving considerable costs by having the conoco kunde 3 frac and get free carry on the data gathering to then best serve our kennedy well into being a success. this frac of kunde 3 cannot be underestimated in its importance to the understandings of the formation and how best to frac the rock.
i have included 2 diagrams of what the geophones can deliver, and included a rather simplistic diagram showing you how kunde 2 had to be drilled again with its close proximity to the kunde 3 Horizontal.
imho as soon as they decide to frac this kunde 3 horizontal, a city of pumpers, engineers, and specialists will appear around the two wells and the important data gathering will once again recommence from where it left off a good 6 weeks ago. imho the timing of that kunde 3 frac is extremely close..
all imho and dyor
Conoco have drilled kunde 2 into all the 3 zones, very close to kunde 3. and the geophones used in the frac will pick up valuable data that can determine what type of frac process can best suit the horizontals to aid in understandings and establish and engineer frac designs that will best suit the horizontal wells productivity. they will show exactly whether the frac is inside the zones they want or not.. and if you understand what zone 3 at SL1 brought up from the edwards below, effectively killing the zone 3 production, , then you will also understand why the frac process can be critical to the success of the well.
Our jvp have learned a lot from all driling so far and the two fracs done in kunde 1 and in particular also with sugarloaf 1. these horizontal wells are expensive and TCEI has decided, with the agreement of the jvp's, for them to not duplicate the high costs of drilling a well near kennedy and replicating this process, but because the goelogy is identical in the region, they are saving considerable costs by having the conoco kunde 3 frac and get free carry on the data gathering to then best serve our kennedy well into being a success. this frac of kunde 3 cannot be underestimated in its importance to the understandings of the formation and how best to frac the rock.
i have included 2 diagrams of what the geophones can deliver, and included a rather simplistic diagram showing you how kunde 2 had to be drilled again with its close proximity to the kunde 3 Horizontal.
imho as soon as they decide to frac this kunde 3 horizontal, a city of pumpers, engineers, and specialists will appear around the two wells and the important data gathering will once again recommence from where it left off a good 6 weeks ago. imho the timing of that kunde 3 frac is extremely close..
all imho and dyor
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sorry i didnt explain the dots too clearly, but what the idea of the geophones are can be seen at this site..
http://www.harbourdom.de/frac_monitoring.htm
your not alone there re the holding. i hold on the potential as well.
this frac was commenced in december 07, but failed due to pressure issues, the frac will happen any moment imho and then will follow the production data, and confirmation (fingers crossed) that horizontal wells are commercial. Then its on to the business of baker and kennedy..
http://www.harbourdom.de/frac_monitoring.htm
your not alone there re the holding. i hold on the potential as well.
this frac was commenced in december 07, but failed due to pressure issues, the frac will happen any moment imho and then will follow the production data, and confirmation (fingers crossed) that horizontal wells are commercial. Then its on to the business of baker and kennedy..
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Patiently waiting as most here are ............. The general market conditions are fairly volatile at present, so it's good to see an "interested" punter accumulating several hundred thousand ADI shares at around 29 cents over the last few days (and not finnished just yet I suspect) ............ Lets hope that turns out to be "smart money" ............ I think it will be, but I also think that the patience of many holders may be tested before the "real story" unfolds on this play.............. I hold as many as I can afford to atm, but hindsight would have had me holding about 40% more if I had waited 
............. but as I tell my kidz ......... Hindsight is a useless commodity ............. Happy to hold ............. Cheers.
............. but as I tell my kidz ......... Hindsight is a useless commodity ............. Happy to hold ............. Cheers.
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hey barney, you mentioned smart money, i think the situation in live oak could envoke a lot more of that. IMHO the fact there are only 5 sellers speaks for itself, tighly held pending the kunde 3 and baker results.
i agree on the situation regarding the "real story" and hindsight, no one, not even the management of all the jvp's could have known the area had an unconventional chalks play in it when they formed the jvp, and TCEI has insisted the play be not mentioned for a long time whilst protecting their interests, our interests and buying the acreages in both karnes and live oak.. Allbeit the acreages we ended up with ended up in karnes county, the knowledge that conocophillips have now got the grace oil leases next to us, is enough for me to be equally optimistic on the agreages we have in our jvp.
i am also of the belief no one could have got a major holding or a large position in the share with the minute volumes of the past months..
IMHO the results from kunde 3 and baker will hopefully be exceptional, as i said before, for a company to have pipelines across acreages before even opening up a single well must be showing a lot of confidence in the prospect.
i am looking forward to the pending results of kunde 3 and baker..
i agree on the situation regarding the "real story" and hindsight, no one, not even the management of all the jvp's could have known the area had an unconventional chalks play in it when they formed the jvp, and TCEI has insisted the play be not mentioned for a long time whilst protecting their interests, our interests and buying the acreages in both karnes and live oak.. Allbeit the acreages we ended up with ended up in karnes county, the knowledge that conocophillips have now got the grace oil leases next to us, is enough for me to be equally optimistic on the agreages we have in our jvp.
i am also of the belief no one could have got a major holding or a large position in the share with the minute volumes of the past months..
IMHO the results from kunde 3 and baker will hopefully be exceptional, as i said before, for a company to have pipelines across acreages before even opening up a single well must be showing a lot of confidence in the prospect.
i am looking forward to the pending results of kunde 3 and baker..
Lucky_Country
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SO when will they test K1 ?
When will we know whats down there will it be before the leases expire ?
When will we hear something on NT ?
Just hangng like a peice of string atm ?
When will we know whats down there will it be before the leases expire ?
When will we hear something on NT ?
Just hangng like a peice of string atm ?
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ADI is an interesting company in an interesting JVP with some major USA players. I asked my broker about these back in early 2007 when I think the share price was about 80c.
He knew a little about them but asked his oil and gas analyst what his thoughts were.
The response was along the lines of the area historically requires extensive fraccing. It would take years to get results because of the involvement of non-listed companies and he thought the risk was the small Australian JV partners would possibly run out of money before anything significant was known. I didn't buy as a result but with the price down at 29c, it is a lot less risky.
He knew a little about them but asked his oil and gas analyst what his thoughts were.
The response was along the lines of the area historically requires extensive fraccing. It would take years to get results because of the involvement of non-listed companies and he thought the risk was the small Australian JV partners would possibly run out of money before anything significant was known. I didn't buy as a result but with the price down at 29c, it is a lot less risky.
Sean K
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I assume you mean that because it's market cap has reduced by 2/3rds since it's highs in Jan 07 this makes it relatively 'cheaper'. I am unsure how it is less risky though. In fact, I'm not sure how you calculate 'value' on such a high risk, speculative stock. This seems to be a purely risk/reward play. There's potential for it to do anything really. Punters must calculate their own risk tolerance and their willingness to lay cold hard cash on the line for something whose odds of succeeding are anyone's best guess. Good luck to those taking the punt.
I know that all the JVP's have been over in the USA to meet with the operator to discuss the program and timing for the planned tests. An update is planned around mid Feb. As there hasnt been any news from EME about Kunde/Baker one would have to assume there is going to be more delays!
Cheers.
Cheers.
Pioneer still going well in the Edwards trend South Texas:-
“2007 production grew 38% vs. 2006
* Production expected to grow ~25% in 2008
* Drilled 34 wells in 2007 (primarily development wells),
with a similar drilling program expected in 2008
* 9 new field discoveries in the Trend to-date brings total
discovered gross resource potential to 400 - 600 BCF
– One Q3 discovery now believed to be largest new field in Edwards
Trend in last 30 years with gross resource potential of ~150 BCF
* 3 recent wells tested 12 – 16 MMCFPD1 each
* Q4 production essentially flat at 62 MMCFPD, waiting on
facilities expansion to accommodate recent wells (expected
late Q1)
* 50% of >900 sq mi 3-D seismic shoot completed; remainder
to be completed by year-end 2008.”
Credit Suisse Energy Summit 8 Feb
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/90/909/90959/items/278695/Pioneer_CreditSuisse_revised.pdf
“2007 production grew 38% vs. 2006
* Production expected to grow ~25% in 2008
* Drilled 34 wells in 2007 (primarily development wells),
with a similar drilling program expected in 2008
* 9 new field discoveries in the Trend to-date brings total
discovered gross resource potential to 400 - 600 BCF
– One Q3 discovery now believed to be largest new field in Edwards
Trend in last 30 years with gross resource potential of ~150 BCF
* 3 recent wells tested 12 – 16 MMCFPD1 each
* Q4 production essentially flat at 62 MMCFPD, waiting on
facilities expansion to accommodate recent wells (expected
late Q1)
* 50% of >900 sq mi 3-D seismic shoot completed; remainder
to be completed by year-end 2008.”
Credit Suisse Energy Summit 8 Feb
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/90/909/90959/items/278695/Pioneer_CreditSuisse_revised.pdf
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blues,
i am not certain all the jvp partners have entirely finished in texas myself.
as for delays, i think the speculation of more delays is always something that can be predicted in any operation.
My own view on the operations going on in texas is much as before, and i still dont have a problem with anything that is occuring and has occurred, its a matter of waiting for the confirmations of yes or no..
IMHO kennedy is still likely to be pushed ahead and fraced in the coming weeks.
i am not certain all the jvp partners have entirely finished in texas myself.
as for delays, i think the speculation of more delays is always something that can be predicted in any operation.
My own view on the operations going on in texas is much as before, and i still dont have a problem with anything that is occuring and has occurred, its a matter of waiting for the confirmations of yes or no..
IMHO kennedy is still likely to be pushed ahead and fraced in the coming weeks.
I hope you are right Agentm. The longer it takes for news to be released the more you would have to think they are having problems with the fraccing and testing process. IMHO. I spoke to Alex late last week and he was still very positive but I got the feeling he was over the waiting as well! Hopefully when Chris gets back from the US we will have some positive news and the testing will start in a few weeks. I think we are all well and truly over the waiting and want some results.
Cheers.
Cheers.
Lucky_Country
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OK so what is the hold up ?
If TCEI want it all too themselves let them have it just pay ADI us$1 billion for there 20% share.
Then ADI should pay a special dividend of $5 too their share holders and the rest too be spent on progressing the company.
Easy !
Not very technical I know thats AgentM s job
If TCEI want it all too themselves let them have it just pay ADI us$1 billion for there 20% share.
Then ADI should pay a special dividend of $5 too their share holders and the rest too be spent on progressing the company.
Easy !
Not very technical I know thats AgentM s job
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I have a conspiracy theory. The US giants want to delay until the JVP's are broke. Then they will acquire 100% and start testing. Don't laugh, my broker didn't dismiss it when we chatted.
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
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Just an update, as the SP seems to be going nowhere fast.
both Mr H's enjoyed their holidays, but Mr H2 was relieved to see the price didnt run up while he was away.
Mr H1 is currently down 24% and happily holding waiting waiting like others on this thread.
Mr H2 is very happy with his cash in an account and is sitting at roughly $18624 (not taking compounding into account). Mr H2 is still waiting for an announcement in order to jump on board if the price does start to rise.
