ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

ADI ..... trading below September 2006 lows now, but expecting some
significant news, around 23-25012008, possibly finance-related ... ???

..... figure this could reveal some previously hidden information, so no
position on this end, as yet ...

happy days

paul



=====

 

[Agentm]

NWE and BUY did not get the kicking we did for announcing the free carry news on wisteria, so currently i think the adi share is reacting in a very strange fashion to that news..

There was no news in the presentation to warrant the reaction to the sell down of the share, so i gather we have to wait and see where the sp ends up.

ADI have agreat list of projects on the books, i dont view the other jvp's projects anywhere near as prospective as the current Yemen, Wisteria and soon to be announced indonesia project.

As for the current situation. we have a fully completed horizontal well in the suagrkane. Kennedy is ready to go, but as yet untested.

its really not a issue for me, i cant see what the current drama is all about, conoco are testing kunde 3 and probably baker as soon as they can, and we have to test our well once they have conditioned the kunde 3 well to be able to do the frac..

great buying prices i guess, but failing to understand why the wisteria news was taken so badly today..

 

[blues]

I dont think the sell off was to do with the farm out news as this was always going to happen. ADI has been sold down on $31000 so not exactly a huge volume and in the current environment there arent many buyers around. I believe some shareholders are getting tired of waiting with the constant delays and with the markets as they are cashing in to preserve capital. Other than the Kennedy testing ADI doesnt have any news comng up to move the share price and no one can tell you if the Kennedy testing is days, weeks or months away. All holders are impatient with the delays and news of the comencement of Kennedy testing will be a welcome relief for all holders. I have been holding 18 months and I am well and truly over it!

Cheers

 

[Lucky_Country]

Yeh am getting well and truely over the rehteric of delays talk is heap time too get a move on !
How much longer must we wait ?

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well Im over the shell shock of the last few days and now pondering what going on at ADI ?
18 months later 3 well drilled no results and a share price now below what it was before they even started drilling.
I really think they have too get things moving or the company will just die a slow death.

 

[Gspot]

'Groundhog Day' is turning into 'Nightmare on Elm St', as this stock is really starting to bite.
Been waiting patiently, while knowing their was doom and gloom coming, and now I'm caught in the storm
What happen to the reports every wednesday? What is CP and Texas Crude telling these guys? We deserve to know!

 

[Agentm]

if it helps a little this is the best i can tell for now.. dont take this as gospel, i am just trying to give you an idea of what i think is possibly about to happen..

kunde 3 is being conditioned for a frac, right now, and frac has to be soon imho.

Baker would likely follow. so two different frac processes taking place..

Kennedy would go after that, and imho, and its just the way i see it, it would be Feb/march.. as the frac has still to happen at kunde 3 and once that is understood they can get a workover at kennedy and set it up.. i wonder if kennedy would also adopt a 4 inch casing to the liner, and not wait for a expensive miscalculation to be repeated?

so three wells will be producing in a matter of 4 -8 weeks imho..

As far as i am aware a lot of visits to Texas by the jvp's and these would reinforce to TCEi the urgency that the directors are all feeling from the shareholders. its clear the kunde 3 frac miscalculated the pressure aspects on their frac and are finding the solutions they need now, so i think the frac at kunde 3 must be getting increasingly closer..

AUT promised big things for november, that was official and it was never explained by them why november didnt happen.. and i saw emails from EME promising things in december.. my own view is that its nearing that stage currently and it cant be weeks anymore, its simply not that complex..

at a guess, and i am absolutley guessing here, i think 7 - 14 days would be the limit for kunde 3.. my thoughts are it should be any moment, but a buffer is always nice to have..

as i say its all IMHO.. and real guess work here, but i think its fair to think kunde is close and baker closely behind as they have not much of a frac to do at all and the workover will get that well on production fairly quick..

again all IMHO and dyor..

 

[Lucky_Country]

Its not that I blame the company as such but no news can only go on for so long they have a job to do for their shareholders and at the moment just seems to be going no where. How long is a piece of string?
We are all here to see our investments grow not reverse especially over a 2 year period on drilling with no results and high spending.
The ease will have expired and the company will be broke not what I invested for I would rather see a duster than watch my share holding diluted and waiting around for no news.

 

[tomcat]

Its not that I blame the company as such but no news can only go on for so long they have a job to do for their shareholders and at the moment just seems to be going no where. How long is a piece of string?
We are all here to see our investments grow not reverse especially over a 2 year period on drilling with no results and high spending.
The ease will have expired and the company will be broke not what I invested for I would rather see a duster than watch my share holding diluted and waiting around for no news.

Lucky_Country, I attended a meeting with Chris for Brokers the other day and there was no concern from him regarding a question pertaining to leases, at least nothing to worry about in the short term.

I am glad that ADI have not been sprouting announcements as if they do and they have nothing material to say then the sp will still take more of a dive.

They are looking for the balance between learning as much as they can from Kunde but are still not prepared to wait another six months for Kennedy to be tested. Believe me I share your pain with where the sp is at the moment but nothing has changed in terms of the play for the last six months. As agent mentioned, the CEO's are heading to Texas and Im sure the testing of Kennedy will be the main agenda point.

The only thing that has changed over the last six months aside for low volume hammering the sp is that kunde is taking longer to frac than expected....this is because they basicallly stuffed up due to the pressure, but they are close to getting that sorted now...the other thing that the entire market seems to have missed is that they are about to test Baker open hole with no frac and then a water frac if they dont get the flow they are after.

I think it is all about to happen...in the next couple of months the question is can you...or are you prepared to wait that long...I am

 

[Lucky_Country]

Lucky_Country, I attended a meeting with Chris for Brokers the other day and there was no concern from him regarding a question pertaining to leases, at least nothing to worry about in the short term.

I am glad that ADI have not been sprouting announcements as if they do and they have nothing material to say then the sp will still take more of a dive.

They are looking for the balance between learning as much as they can from Kunde but are still not prepared to wait another six months for Kennedy to be tested. Believe me I share your pain with where the sp is at the moment but nothing has changed in terms of the play for the last six months. As agent mentioned, the CEO's are heading to Texas and Im sure the testing of Kennedy will be the main agenda point.

The only thing that has changed over the last six months aside for low volume hammering the sp is that kunde is taking longer to frac than expected....this is because they basicallly stuffed up due to the pressure, but they are close to getting that sorted now...the other thing that the entire market seems to have missed is that they are about to test Baker open hole with no frac and then a water frac if they dont get the flow they are after.

I think it is all about to happen...in the next couple of months the question is can you...or are you prepared to wait that long...I am

I'm in for the long haul until we get an answer one way or the other!
This said it doesnt stop me airing my concerns after all it is my money.
Dont get me wrong I think ADI management have handled the whole situation well, no spruiking just straight talking and I know things are out of their hands but they need too put some pressure on which they are probably doing.
Just so frustrating !

 

[Agentm]

tom, i am glad you understood what chris is conveying, the play is similar to what was faced when tackling the burnett shale, and the years of research so far put in by burlington and conocophillips with TCEi and our jvp has come to this point in time, its time to frac and time to learn.

much has been learned by the frac on kunde 1, and kunde 3 and sugarloaf 1. the frac designs out now should give our well a great chance of producing imho..

i also agree on baker, its very very exciting to see it flow open hole, i believe you dont do such a thing unless you have done a drill stem test myself, so imho the baker well was as reported by EME, seen to flow. i think there is little doubt in my mind the result form baker will be nothing short of highly encouraging. But the market has indeed missd the news on Baker completely, andsits in the identical formation kennedy sits in imho.

conoco's kunde 2 is a deep well, like kunde 1 and like our Sugarloaf 1, it has contact with all the three zones, we dont hear much about it but imho it was drilled for the purpose of not just listening in on kunde 3, i believe it will also test the other zones there, and add further understandings to what type of frac process is best suited to the formation.

my view on ADI is basically fairly upbeat.

i view the ADI free carry on the wisteria offshore well as a positive. the farm out to a player the size of cosmo was a very encouraging move.

i view the paid for and finished well of Kennedy 1H as extremely positive as the well had elevated background readings that were "encouraging".. the frac thats about to commence there will certainly be the critical test for adi. no doubt about that at all.

I view SL1 as a success, it was able to determine the sugarkane was in the acreages, and basically formed the idea the playwas stratographic, and widespread, and it confirmed it was identical in all respects to what kunde and baker has.. That well has two zones to test still, but imho may only test zone 2.

i also view the value of the yemen project far more than many do, i think area 7 has great prospects.


i am of the opinion that the coming weeks can potentially deliver more an more positive news, as each well is tested in the sugarkane and brought on production it will become very evident what sort of prospect this sugarkane is. and the current views on the size and nature of the play may have been underestimated imho, as ADI has always had conservative estimates on all of its releases. looking forward to the development of the wells and the news that the formation is producing myself..

good luck to all holders..

 

[Agentm]

anyone prepared to sell a few now?

nothing available on the boards at the moment.

nice long weekend coming up. looking forward to the weeks ahead myself. groundhog day may end soon

 

[nioka]

anyone prepared to sell a few now?

nothing available on the boards at the moment.

nice long weekend coming up. looking forward to the weeks ahead myself. groundhog day may end soon

Who would sell at this price? Bought a few more AUT though. I'll have to review my "end of the month deadline" in view of the price. Just as well I have a flexible plan.

 

[Agentm]

hey nioka,

while your making gains crossing over between the two, i have been quietly watching the TCEI lease buying continue unhindered.

In the past 3 months its just been a non stop flow of lease buying in karnes and live oak.

In amoungst all this we have seen the slow down of activity on all wells in the Sugarloaf AMI, to the stage where today there is absolutley no activity of any nature on any of our sites.

In the last weeks there has been a lot of activity of different nature in texas, we are seeing a stream of jvp partners visiting texas.

I am not overly concerned with the delays that have been experienced in the last 2 years, these are all accountable to processes i witness, and follow the announcements of a massive land grab on an exciting prospect.

At the AGM i went to in perth, the plan seemed to be to put kennedy on line and then follow up with a program to develop the 20,000 acres.

imho the live oak wells are doing better than anyone understands, and i would expect steady news flows to come through EME in the coming weeks. there are two wells about to be put int production in live oak, and i think kennedy will be the third well to go..

i continue to hold for the bigger picture, and look forward to the developments coming up..

good luck if your selling out now, and good luck to the new crews coming in and the long term holders..

 

[Agentm]

Adelphi Energy Limited (Adelphi) is pleased to announce the execution of a farmin agreement earlier today between a number of the AC/P32 Joint Venture parties and Cosmo Energy Exploration & Development Ltd (Cosmo Energy). Under the terms of the agreement, Cosmo Energy will acquire a total 22.5% equity interest in the AC/P32 Licence from the participating farm-out partners by contributing towards the cost of the Wisteria-1 exploration well on a 2 for 1 promoted basis. The promote payable by Cosmo Energy is capped based on an agreed dry hole cost in relation to this exploration well. As a result of this farm-out, Adelphi’s equity interest in the AC/P32 License will reduce from 18.48% to 10.0%, with a remaining cost exposure towards the dry-hole cost of the Wisteria well of less than 2%. Any costs incurred in excess of the agreed farm-in cap such as well completion and testing costs would be funded by Adelphi at its reduced 10% equity interest.
Cosmo Energy is the oil and gas exploration arm of the Cosmo Oil Group, a major Japanese oil refiner and distributor with annual sales of over 2.8 trillion yen. The Cosmo Group already holds interests in several Timor Sea permits including the Tenacious and Audacious oil discoveries some 50 km to the north of the AC/P32 Licence. Further information on the Cosmo Oil Group can be obtained from their website at http://www.cosmo-oil.co.jp/eng/index.html
As a consequence of this farm-out arrangement, the Joint Venture interests in the AC/P32 Licence will now be as follows (subject to standard regulatory approvals):
Coogee Resources (Operator) 22.5%
Adelphi Energy 10.0%
Cosmo Energy 22.5%
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited 20.0%
Westranch Holdings (Norwest) 15.0%​

Bounty Oil and Gas 10.0%


so less than 2% costs, practically free carry.

cosmo seems also to like the prospect.

 

[Agentm]

it seems Gace Oil did some extensive lease buying, all 36 month leases in 2006, and they are situated in amoungst the zone i have detailed in the map. if you research Grace Oil you wont find them.. NB>> it doesnt mean its all the acreages marked, but there are 14 grace oil leases all up i know about and they total about 3,500 acres from memory.. the area is shared with TCEI owning many leases there also..

our sugarloaf well and kennedy 1H sits below this acreages. now thats an interesting neighbour.. imho we should also own leases in this region..

IMHO the grace oil leases have recently changed hands to some multi national oil company that cant be named by the jvp.. conocophillips would be my prime suspect here!

all imho and dyor..

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well Conoco seem very very interested in the whole area which has too be a very positive.
Just feel they are the ones calling the shots on the whole area that is too be expected I suppose too big too argue with.
See Chris Hodge made a further investment in ADI only small but more of a sign of confidence.
When will we get K1 tested thats my main priority.

 

[Agentm]

kennedy happens after kunde 3 and baker,, feb/march imho..

conoco are in karnes county now, thats big news for me, and it confirms my confidence in our acreages.. this is the first decisive move by conoco to own acreages outright, happy to be holding..

imho news is not too far away, there are signs everywhere that things are cranking up..

 

[Lucky_Country]

Do Conoco have any jvp on these leases ?
TCEI have done well so far they just need to take the next step this is a big play for them as well.
6 months time we will be wondering why we were so impatient for these wells and basking in glory and money

 

[Agentm]

i got it a touch wrong Lucky_Country, grace had always purchased the leases on behalf of conoco, its just now that the name has been changed officially.

so the acreages to the north must have always been highly prospective, and we know we had to compete against major oil companies for the 20,000 acres we have..

but the story remains, conoco are in karnes county and have a good chunk of the sugarkane there in live oak also.. i cant vouch for atascosia as i have no records for that region.

i gather that some day soon they will be declaring to their own shareholders what the activities are, and how they view the prospect, we have yet to see any sign from conoco officially that they are in the two counties.. and all the jvp's are unable to mention their names in any releases..