International markets traders banter

[CanOz]

I always hate to be too bullish or bearish, it tends to cloud your judgement for too long and as an intraday outright trader, i need to be able to flip...well right now, holy crap i'm bearish and i just can't shake it Every equity index chart i open has lower extensions ending 7-10% lower from current closes....

 

[Modest]

I just put 96% of of my super in cash option....better safe than sorry I say!

 

[shouldaindex]

DJI can't buy a good start!

By my calculations out of 9 trading days this year, 6 have opened positive and all 6 turned negative at some stage intraday.

 

[shouldaindex]

Dow Jones: 3 hours to go, -460 down.

Wonder if it's brave enough to stage a comeback.

 

[notting]

One stupid comment being repeated in the media at the moment, by fools all over the place, is that the globe is in for trouble because China has been contributing 50% to the insipid growth for the last 5 years or so and so if China is not growing then we're all headed for the GFC replay.

What a load of absolute crap.

China has simply being peddling out BS figures, whilst ratcheting up in house debt since the GFC.

A China collapse is not the disaster, sure it matters a bit and some exporters are gonna lose some numbers, but it's the US driving global growth and the US will continue to.

The fact that growth has been conservative and steady is a good thing too. The US recover, thus, hasn't gone too far too soon and still has plenty of room to climb on a steady plane, hence!
Historically, we get a 15% correcting every 300 trading days. We haven't had one since the GFC. It's about time and it's not the end of the new world, it's just the end of Chinese bullsh1t!

 

[shouldaindex]

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/15/when-the-fed-raises-rates-heres-what-happens.html

How soon do Recessions occur after the First Rate Rise in the USA, within:

1 year - 1
2 years - 3
3 years - 2
4 years - 3
5 years - 0
6 years - 1
7 years - 1
8 years - 2

(non accumulative)

The average drawdown from these is about -35%, so you need to make about +50% before this occurs to just end up with the same amount of money.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Is lower oil good for the Economy? Yes
Are interest rates low? Yes. Still it is historically low.
Are valuations too high? No. Globally there are plenty of value markets, sectors and stocks
Can we expect higher earnings from listed companies globally? Yes.

Strong fundamentals are still intact. Therefore, year of 2016 is going to be another year of opportunity.

There are two types of fear in the market

•The fear coming from unknown news
•The fear of missing out gain

Latter is going to be very strong in the coming weeks

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/14/2016-rout-not-end-of-stock-bull-market-tom-lee.html
2016 rout NOT end of stock bull market: Tom Lee

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

[shouldaindex]

Binary outcome for me.

U.S Recession type event based on worsening Commodities and China in the next 18 months YES or NO.

That result probably swings the market by about 40% (-20% vs +20%) using a general estimate based on historical data.

 

[CanOz]

•The fear of missing out gain

Latter is going to be very strong in the coming weeks

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/14/2016-rout-not-end-of-stock-bull-market-tom-lee.html
2016 rout NOT end of stock bull market: Tom Lee

MARKETWINNER -- FOMO or Fear of Missing Out is commonly assocated with tops, not bottoms....The herd, captivated by stories from taxi drivers, plough into the market, buying from those who seek to either go to bonds or cash, or short....

Here's my

For the SPI - if we take out 4665 then we test the August low for sure. If we fail to find initiative buyers at that low, then were testing 4635 for sure. If we fail there, the SPI is going to 4420 and most likely to 4300.

If the ES tests the Friday low again, in the event of a failure there then most certainly the August low which is the most likely scenario. A failure there could find buyers at 1775, or 1717. My most bearish view would be 1150...

The Dax, as per the chart.

This all depends allot on some fundamental issues too. Such as:

1.) a reasonably poor GDP number out of China tomorrow (this means a number that seems real).
2.) No intervention, stimulus or any kind of easing from the ECB, BOC or the Fed

Of course it will be easier to anticipate continuation as continuation unfolds. But for now, that's my downside potential.

Somethings I'll look to do when i feel we have a bottom in would be to take more positions on my swing portfolio. I have not taken many shorts in equities, other than one of Nick's and the ETF HYG.

I don't see anything at the moment that says these declines are ready to establish some kind of bullish balance area before a push higher...

 

[CanOz]

China GDP is Tuesday at 10:00 AM Shanghai time...

 

[shouldaindex]

It'll be 'fixed' at 6.9% I assume.

Just for fun, a few graphs where you can use your intuition, where do they look like going?

 

[CanOz]

Not enough information, nice try though...

There's allot of banter at the moment among macro traders about the GDP number....china knows the world knows that they've been sprung. There's a good article on seeking alpha regarding what the number could mean. 6.5-7.0 and they're still faking it, 6.0-6.5 could be realistic. Less than 6 and it's likely even worse than they're saying.

 

[CanOz]

It'll be 'fixed' at 6.9% I assume.

Just for fun, a few graphs where you can use your intuition, where do they look like going?

View attachment 65565 S&P 500

View attachment 65566 XJO

View attachment 65567 FTSE 100

View attachment 65568

and the Hang Seng

Every one of these markets is going lower, if you want to know the potential of the move, targets along the way or levels where we could see short covering rallies, let me know. I can't give you too much info as i am a little busy. But i am happy to give you a few on a market and you can watch for yourself...

 

[CanOz]

FWIW, i think we're very close to a decent bounce/short covering rally. So keep a look out if youre trading indices. I'd ideally like to see a little probe lower first to find some buyers....The yen looks like its due for a rest as well...We'll see. Keep an eye on CL as well.

 

[Modest]

I'm always on a lookout for a bounce

 

[CanOz]

IG has the Dax opening at 9630, we might see an open drive higher but i really hope we sell off to the prior close and pick up some buyers there in RTH

 

[sinner]

Here's a quick update:

Volatility: elevated in the bad way. ~60% allocation maximum.
Breadth: Craptastic all over. The collapse in NASDAQ-100 breadth since 2016 kicked off has been staggering.
Credit: Even Investment Grade is starting to feel the pinch. The BBB options adjusted spread is well into wides we saw in 2011 and 2008 now.
Industrial commods and oil: Y'all know this already. Busted and the Baltic Dry is on the same road. Liquidity provider positioning for the AUD has not budged from the sort of extremes which normally precede a reversal. But in comparison to the CAD, could be worse.
Valuations: still obscenely expensive. Coupled with volatility measures and forecast against a 10Y Tbond, a Sharpe based allocation would be 0% or close.

ES technicals:
* daily oversold
* weekly oversold
* monthly oversold

No indicators of increasing risk sentiment from investors.

Enjoy.

 

[shouldaindex]

Just doing some sums for the past 3 days (plus weekend futures):

Oil +15%
------------
FTSE +5%
ASX +3%
Dow Jones +3%
Hang Seng +3%

Shows that Oil is a very good indicator of market direction, but it's actual impact might be overplayed in current narratives.

 

[cynic]

Just doing some sums for the past 3 days (plus weekend futures):

Oil +15%
------------
FTSE +5%
ASX +3%
Dow Jones +3%
Hang Seng +3%

Shows that Oil is a very good indicator of market direction, but it's actual impact might be overplayed in current narratives.

Well knock me down with a feather!

That's what caused the rally!!

And here I was thinking that it was all to do with strong hints of more QE from around the globe!

 

[VSntchr]

http://quantifiableedges.com/long-term-implications-of-last-weeks-breadth-thrust/

I know there's at least one well known trader here that considers breadth to be worthy of consideration.