International markets traders banter

[CanOz]

Well the Santa Claus rally might not happen, most markets are definetly posturing bearishly more than bullishly.

Where is Sinner with his indicators?

I'd say we're looking at a gap down in Europe today unless the Asian markets make up ground lost on the back of the news

09:56*(CN) CHINA NOV TRADE BALANCE: CNY343.1B v CNY407.5Be- Exports Y/Y: % v -5.0%e- Imports Y/Y: % v -11.9%e - Source TradeTheNews.com

The other news thats affecting the Yen is

07:50*(JP) JAPAN Q3 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.0%E; ANNUALIZED GDP: 1.0% V 0.2%E; Japan AVOIDS technical recession- Nominal GDP: 0.4% v 0.2%e- GDP Deflator: 1.8% v 2.0%e - Source TradeTheNews.com

So its caught a bid this morning too....

So might be the time for some longs to liquidate! Sorry Santa :ak47: :xmaswave:, you're not welcome here this year, especially in the classroom!

 

[Modest]

Is the AUD against the USD rising because of the expected rate rise(s) locally or some other thing all together? I'm not complaining, I'm an importer!

 

[CanOz]

The 6J has really got a bid this morning, bad data again out of China and Abe hinting that his economy is no longer deflating seem to creating a nice storm to roll across the markets today, the first day of trading for the new year.

Its 2016 and we welcome the volatility!

 

[CanOz]

Shanghai getting messy, must be the smog...:bad:

13:34(CN) Chinese equites halted for 2nd time in session after 7.0% decline; Shanghai and Shenzhen market now closed for the day (related SPY PGJ DIA FXI EEM) - Source TradeTheNews.com

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Yeah just amazing, the down up down up looks set to roll on

 

[qldfrog]

blood snd tears today?
last check this morning..I am ready

 

[Logique]

What a bizarre start in China.

Opinion: China’s rigged markets could fall much further, much faster
By Craig Stephen - Published: Jan 4, 2016
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ch...further-much-faster-2016-01-04?dist=countdown

...The black start to January trading had its roots in the controversial government intervention last summer to rescue stocks from a rout, which wiped over $4 trillion off share values and sent shock waves around global markets.

This appeared to have paid off after a subsequent partial market rebound, yet it always left a worrying overhang both from resulting heavy state ownership and the imposition of a six-month ban on major shareholders (over 5%) from selling positions.

With that six-month moratorium ending this coming Friday, investors were spooked that there could be an avalanche of pent-up selling.

And this time around will the government still be around to come in as buyer of the last resort?...

 

[Modest]

George Soros sees echoes of 2008 crisis

Global markets are facing a crisis and investors need to be very cautious, billionaire George Soros told an economic forum in Sri Lanka on Thursday.

China is struggling to find a new growth model and its currency devaluation is transferring problems to the rest of the world, Soros said in Colombo. A return to positive interest rates is a challenge for the developing world, he said, adding that the current environment has similarities to 2008.

Global currency, stock and commodity markets are under fire in the first week of the new year, with a sinking yuan adding to concern about the strength of China's economy as it shifts away from investment and manufacturing toward consumption and services. Almost $US2.5 trillion was wiped from the value of global equities this year through Wednesday, and losses deepened in Asia on Thursday as a plunge in Chinese equities halted trade for the rest of the day.

"China has a major adjustment problem," Soros said. "I would say it amounts to a crisis. When I look at the financial markets there is a serious challenge which reminds me of the crisis we had in 2008."

Soros has warned of a 2008-like catastrophe before. On a panel in Washington in September 2011, he said the Greece-born European debt crunch was "more serious than the crisis of 2008".

Soros, whose hedge-fund firm gained about 20 per cent a year on average from 1969 to 2011, has a net worth of about $US27.3 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. He began his career in New York City in the 1950s and gained a reputation for his investing prowess in 1992 by netting $US1 billion with a bet that the UK would be forced to devalue the pound.

Measures of volatility are surging. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the fear gauge or the VIX, jumped 21 per cent on Thursday in New York, to lift it 36 per cent so far this year. The Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index, which measures the cost of protection on Japanese shares, has climbed 43 per cent in 2016 and a Merrill Lynch index of anticipated price swings in Treasury bonds rose 5.7 per cent.


China's Communist Party has pledged to increase the yuan's convertibility by 2020 and to gradually dismantle capital controls. Weakness in the world's second-largest economy remains even after the People's Bank of China has cut interest rates to record lows and authorities pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. Data this week reinforced a sluggish manufacturing sector.

At the closing bell in New York on Thursday, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 2.4 per cent. The index is down 4.9 per cent this year, its worst start in data going back to 1928. The Dow slumped 2.3 per cent, while the Nasdaq lost 3 per cent.

The selling began in China, where stocks plunged 7 per cent after the central bank cut the yuan's reference rate by the most since August. The rout this year in Europe surpassed 6 per cent, as Germany's DAX fell below 10,000 for the first time since October. The DAX was down 2.6 per cent at 9953.33 at about 4.15pm in Frankfurt.

http://www.afr.com/markets/george-soros-sees-echoes-of-2008-crisis-20160107-gm1jgb

 

[shouldaindex]

Outstanding U.S Jobs report, but sentiment seems to be that it could lead to a faster Fed Hike timeline which will affect the 35% overvalued CAPE.

Oil also back down to $32.

Funny how all the mechinations work.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Many talk about China chaos and global market drop. But there are opportunities even in markets like today.

Globally, listed poultry stocks are doing well despite global market selloff. Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC) up by more than 3% on a volume of 2667628. TSN and SAFM are also resilient. Shares in Shenzhen-listed (China) poultry producers also went up on a volume of 3645184. Lay Hong Berhad listed poultry company in Malaysia is also up by more than 3% on Friday. Chicken and egg stocks could outperform others in 2016 due to strong poultry market outlook.

Listed Asian poultry producers also should do well in 2016 due to tight poultry supply situation and demand for poultry products. Lower oil and feed prices are benefiting their industry lot. Many countries in Asia and Middle East have banned or suspended poultry products import from France as well.

Finally, we should see strong rebound in global markets sooner than later. South Asia has more edge over other Asian region. There will be opportunities in markets such Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Europe and the USA in selected sectors. Among frontier markets, Sri-Lanka is attractive on valuation and we can see some strong activities in the coming months. Chinese consumer sector and internet sector will have more growth over other sectors. Both Australia and New Zealand will have more opportunity to export meat to China in the coming decade.

We should see more weakness in commodity prices in 2016 as well. After long period gold should trade below $1000.Oil importing countries and commodity consuming companies will become winners. Global consumers will have more money in their pocket thanks to lower oil and gas prices. They will create demand for other products.

Asian currencies especially south Asian currencies should appreciate against basket of currencies including NZD and AUD in 2016.USD also will stay strong.

We are not going to see end of easy money policy in this year. FED might have cautious approach to their rate decisions. Still there will be demand for stocks globally in 2016 as well. China chaos is opening up another great opportunity for global investors in global stock market.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

[shouldaindex]

Does this mean my $2 meal deal from KFC is going up?

How about that turn overnight on the markets, I was in my pajamas at 4am watching google finance.

 

[shouldaindex]

Saw something on CNBC worthwhile (I know I'm surprised too).

Extremely strong correlation between the S&P 500 and the Yuan and Oil price depreciation over the past year.

Also showed there could be a short-term bounce off a range, but ultimately the big picture on current fundamentals and technicals looks down.

 

[CanOz]

Interesting.......

The bottom must be getting close, the fund managers are getting out I heard Gartman was bearish now too...

11:01RBS said to have advised its clients to "sell everything" but high quality bonds - financial press (update)- Warns major stock markets may fall by as much as 20% and oil could fall to $16/brl.- Seeing s more... (related USO SPY IYM EEM) - Source TradeTheNews.com

Interbank rates in HK...

11:21(HK) Offshore overnight yuan HIBOR 66.82% (fresh record high) v 13.4% yesterday - Source TradeTheNews.com

USD/CNH - the CNY off shore rate

 

[Logique]

Interesting.......
The bottom must be getting close, the fund managers are getting out I heard Gartman was bearish now too...

JP Morgan too.

We just need the taxi drivers to start telling us to sell, and the criteria for a turnaround will be met!

Not sure if the same rule applies to Uber drivers.

 

[cynic]

Trading by candlelight again!

 

[CanOz]

Trading by candlelight again!

how romantic!

 

[cynic]

how romantic!

Yep! A definite love hate relationship. I now love to hate my power supplier!

 

[CanOz]

JP Morgan too.

We just need the taxi drivers to start telling us to sell, and the criteria for a turnaround will be met!

Not sure if the same rule applies to Uber drivers.

lol....Well the ones I've met have been brighter, that's for sure.

 

[cynic]

Yep! A definite love hate relationship. I now love to hate my power supplier!

Only took em 4 and bit hours to fix this one and get the lights back on.

 

[CanOz]

Only took em 4 and bit hours to fix this one and get the lights back on.

Have to go solar Cynic!