International markets traders banter

[CanOz]

http://quantifiableedges.com/long-term-implications-of-last-weeks-breadth-thrust/

I know there's at least one well known trader here that considers breadth to be worthy of consideration.

This is quite interesting as well as the ES looks to have tested the 1885 area that it broke out of last week. So if that could be considered bullish, if it holds, then the ES and US markets are postured more bullishly than the EU markets which look like they have a little more downside into NFP.

I am just guessing, but i bet that the sell the close (ES) buy the open might be working for a while, as well perhaps sell the open (DAX) buy the open (ES) trade as the two seem to diverge. Just an observation more than anything but it could be traded through the ES/FESX spread easy enough. If what I'm thinking is right, then the spread should rally when the FESX sells off, and visa versa...

 

[Trembling Hand]

Has anyone had any experience with Phillip capital Singapore? Cost, bro, speed, support etc. For futs trading and can you use their CQG connection for ninja trader?

 

[CanOz]

Has anyone had any experience with Phillip capital Singapore? Cost, bro, speed, support etc. For futs trading and can you use their CQG connection for ninja trader?

I did a trial with them a while back through an association with thier Chicago office, but i was with PAT Systems for the HSI. The trial failed as the data was unreliable. I didn't try CQG but i think 58 just opened an account with them....

I know that at the time they were very keen to corner the market in Asia for index products. They had some customer service issues and office politics out of Singapore as well which p*ssed me off.

I see no reason why CQG wouldn't work into NT though. Have you asked them for a trial? What advantages are there going though Phillip as opposed to AMP? Have you considered MacQuarie futures?

 

[Trembling Hand]

I see no reason why CQG wouldn't work into NT though. Have you asked them for a trial? What advantages are there going though Phillip as opposed to AMP? Have you considered MacQuarie futures?

They still have to open the NT port for it to work. Simple but something they like doing!

What advantages are there going though Phillip as opposed to AMP?

Looking for a non IB HSI connection to NT

Have you considered MacQuarie futures?

No. Figured they would be rubbish....

 

[CanOz]

Well, they claim to have all the exchanges and cqg data....I have a mate that's ex propex just opened a private account with them, he's got a name of a guy that looks after him, shall I get it for you?

 

[fiftyeight]

I didn't try CQG but i think 58 just opened an account with them

Still on site so I have not signed up yet. Will get it sorted in a few weeks

 

[Trembling Hand]

Just L O L at the DAX. That wasn't half telegraphed hey? stops going back over a year being singed!

 

[CanOz]

Just L O L at the DAX. That wasn't half telegraphed hey? stops going back over a year being singed!

I wondered what was going on, been short the ES CFD....out now

 

[Logique]

Bears in the ascendancy in the US. Head and Shoulders, a classic chart pattern.

SPX 1,600 ?..ouch. That would be a long way further down.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...e-turmoil-in-stocks-2016-02-09?dist=afterbell
Here’s what technical analysts are saying about the turmoil in stocks - By Anora Mahmudova - Feb 9, 2016

Some chart watchers say a recently completed bearish pattern could portend more pain for stock investors over the short term.

These technical strategists are pointing to a so-called head-and-shoulders pattern in the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.07% that has formed over 15 months and was completed last week....J.C. Parets, founder of money manager Eagle Bay Capital and a prominent market commentator, suggests the index could fall a further 13%, based on the S&P 500’s level of 1,847 at midday Tuesday.

“When [the pattern is] completed and confirmed, it dictates the price target. We think the next price target is 1,600 on the S&P 500,” he said...

 

[sinner]

My favourite pot to watch these days:


Couldn't help myself:

 

[notting]

Clearly markets are anticipating that Janet Yellen is going to come out tonight and set fire to the room, then blow herself up.

 

[daytradeprofit]

Global markets entered to A panic what the jpy could tell us about the future....

Global markets entered what could end up being called a true panic, much of the credit expansion of the last few years has been misallocated towards emerging markets and commodities. The long-term thesis is that much of the global expansion of production for the last few decades has been based on an unsustainable expansion of credit. Productive economies such a Germany and China, in particular, have employed a vendor financing model where their reserves were re-lent to their customers at ever diminishing rates to consume more production. It is worth noting the state of the global banking shares, they are along with general stock markets are showing a severe crisis may now be underway. Credit default swaps for banks are rising and in particular, Deutsche Bank in Europe is now under severe pressure

From close look on the COT data usdjpy we see occurrence Surprising, Since the beginning of upward movement In 2012 the margin was more or less the same level, And now we are witnessing a fork returns, whether this heralds a return the jpy to Safe haven…….
USD/JPY has been known as a currency pair because of its close correlation with U.S. treasuries. When treasury bonds, notes and bills rise, USD/JPY prices weaken. This is a long position. The logic is that the U.S. would never default on its bond obligations, known as defensive assets, hence its safe haven status is secure.
Interest rates in both Japan and the U.S. This means that the pair is a measure of risk that determines when to buy or sell the USD/JPY, in terms of interest rates. Knowing where interest rates are heading will determine the direction of this pair

U.S. stock markets, treasury bonds and the USD/JPY also have inverse relationships. When stock markets rise, bond prices fall, yields rise and the USD/JPY should be sold because investors are more willing to trade risky assets. Stocks are viewed as risky assets and not backed by a government with the ability to turn if fear grips the market. Liquidity here takes on risk rather than the safe status of treasuries.
Changes in correlations may occur for many reasons, U.S. issues more debt by sales of treasury bonds and adds money to the system - if U.S. buys back treasury bonds and adds money to the system ….. . Recessionary times are quite different. What if the U.S. dollar and the yen are both in a downtrend?
The traditional correlative points are: bonds up; USD/JPY up; USD down; yields down and stock markets up.
From looking at the charts we can see the relationship between index and currency (sp500 vs usd/jpy ) We can see something interesting: while the usdjpy went up 106 level to 123 the sp500 didn’t made the same move, was traded between 1815 to 2130 price levels
What we can conclude from this break down the 1815 area at the sp500 could send the usdjpy down easily to 106 area, correlation between the two staying at 114.80 usdjpy 1815 sp500
Bearish on the dollar
The markets have factored in further FRB rate hikes, but there are doubts about the figure of four hikes within 2016.Amid a lingering sense that further easing by the BOJ is approaching its limits, the dollar/yen pair’s movements are marked by a sense of fulfilment in relation to Japanese-U.S. interest-rate differentials. The dollar is expected to slide as real-demand investors build up hedges and speculators close out their dollar positions
The dollar/yen pair’s rise is likely to be kept in check by risk-evasive yen buying on the long-standing bearishness of crude oil prices; concerns about a Chinese economic slowdown; and ongoing concerns about geopolitical risk, with several regions across the globe at risk of terrorism. The next U.S. rate cut is likely to take a place from March or later, so the dollar is not expected to appreciate much on the back of rising U.S. interest rates
Bullish on the dollar
The theme will remain the pace of U.S. rate hikes. There is a gap between the forecasts of FOMC members and market participants when it comes to the pace of rate hikes, so the dollar/yen pair is likely to search for a sense of direction this month while taking on board the U.S. employment results and other data
http://www.*********************/

 

[sinner]

Repeat of Aug '15 again in EURUSD, panic in the market = Euro goes up. Somehow trading at 1.13 handle from a 1.09 handle at the start of Feb while the S&P500 cash trading at 1815 from 1940 at start of Feb.

 

[Trembling Hand]

hahah Remember the good old days when a selling point for Forex was it was too bid to be manipulated....



Yen takes a hit on rumours of BOJ intervention.

 

[sinner]

hahah Remember the good old days when a selling point for Forex was it was too bid to be manipulated....

Yen takes a hit on rumours of BOJ intervention.

It doesn't seem that long ago that BoJ intervention was the laughing stock of FX land and always good for a fade!

USDJPY order book on the ECNs used to be often one of the thickest with billions on either side.

No surprise that USDJPY book got a lot thinner around 2011/2 when the BoJ finally started to get their way. I am sure the EURCHF fiasco mark 1 in 2011 also helped convince a lot of traders to get out of the way of CBs determined to bork their local currency.

 

[skyQuake]

Anyone else think the yen move was a bit dodgy today? Public holiday in Japan so they decided to do a run on some stops is my guess

 

[sinner]

Anyone else think the yen move was a bit dodgy today? Public holiday in Japan so they decided to do a run on some stops is my guess

Alternative hypothesis is that because it was a public holiday, the market was mostly robots, the chart looks funny when there's no humans to fleece? :

 

[sinner]

Last night Rate of Change plots compared to recent history:

VIX:


TIP/IEF ratio:


JNK/IEF ratio:


(h/t stockcharts.com)

 

[Wysiwyg]

Looks like DOW futures are going to fall over.

 

[sinner]

Looks like DOW futures are going to fall over.

Not sure what inspired this post, maybe a chart next time, especially after I showed a considerable short term narrowing of credit problems and hefty drops in vol...