ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[Nyden]

I bought at $11.90........gotta get my Pasminco money back somehow !!!!!
Pasminco share holders got nothing back...Zinifex got the best Zinc mine in the world.........bet none of the directors that sent Pasminco broke missed out

The ghost of Pasminco haunts us all apparently I never held them, but it certainly bloody well looks like ZFX is headed down the same route! What in blazes is happening to the share price...totally unjustified, cursed technical traders, not to mention you blooming bears :

At 14-15 I had a plan, it was wait for the dividends to come...and hope for another mass entry. Now that it's at 12...dividends won't save this one Who's still holding from the 17+ days? I really feel sorry for those who bought in at 20

 

[justjohn]

[
I feel your PAIN Nyden ,I like you hold ZFX MID $16 opened close to its high then went backwards all day to end up on its low .Hoping for some rally over Xmas (Christmas---sorry MINTY) :chimney then I'm out ,I've had this stockc::swear:

 

[DionM]

I'm still holding from the mid-14s earlier this year.

I have been tempted a few times to jump back in for more, don't forget ZFX still has that big bag of cash to buy more ... however it is hard to separate IMHO the effect of the AGM offer on the ZFX SP as it's masked by so much other goings-on in the market. So, while I'd like to duck back in, I wonder if ZFX will take a while to recover from this, and then what effect another takeover offer will have? They've aimed at Nickel, wasn't their other target Gold? Probably not a good time for ZFX to go chasing a gold miner, looking at what has happened to some of the goldies (LGL for example).

So while it would have been nice to top up at the lows and average down, that is playing on my mind. There's no sign of historical support round this level either ($12ish) so I'm cautious. Plus it would also break my rule of not investing too much in any single stock (5%-7% of my total investment per stock is my limit for companies like ZFX).

Or will Xstrata or one of the other rumoured companies finally launch a takeover offer on ZFX now? They might get plenty of people willing to jump ship if they come in with a $15-$16 offer now (seems a few in this thread just want "out" now - could be a good barometer of general shareholder sentiment), vs the $20+ they might have had to cough up a few weeks ago?

 

[mfp]

I've given up on trying to pick the bottom on this stock, I am convinced there is no bottom, regardless of the PE ratio or dividend yield. In fact, the better these figures get, the more violent the sell offs are becoming, with no end in sight. It breaks through key support levels like they don't exist. It falls when the market is up and gets bludgeoned to death when the market is down. Reversals last two or three days at best, and then it cops a further 4,5,6,7 or even 8 days of consecutive falls (as is currently occuring, 8 and counting). I have never seen an ASX200 stock fall for 8 consecutive days, even in a bear market. I have had this stock to death. Wish I had registered for CFDs so I could have shorted the living daylights out of it.

 

[Ken]

Zinifex has just put in a bid for a company.

It is common for a stock to fall due to the stock becoming diluted when it is the predator.

Zinc prices are falling, Zinifex is Zinc related.

What is really drawing investors to ZFX at the moment....

We say its undervalued and has heaps of spare cash, and its a takeover target etc.....

If the market didnt swing in these volatile times, it would not give us the chance to pick up bargains.

Also note we all understand how fast ZFX moves.

The only explanation I have for what is happening at the moment is to cast your eyes back to when BHP fell from $32 to $23.90 when we all thought copper was dropping in the ass.

Could it be a similar story with ZFX? WE know the stock is a lot more volatile than BHP, but with base metals out of favour does this present opportunity?

This fall in ZFX has nothing to do with company itself.

Look at the complete market.

Banks
Miners
Oilers
Property


These stocks are all down.

And the stocks which are holding their ground the best

Dare we say it Telstra! What does that tell us....

 

[Stan 101]

Add to Ken's post the fact we have lost 4 cents against the greenback...................................

cheers,

 

[DionM]

Ken makes some valid points.

mfp - regarding it not respecting support ... not true. For some weeks before this week's turmoil and the AGM offer, ZFX respected very well the $14 mark. Sadly it fell through it recently, perhaps due to just too much downwards pressure. Where to from here is anyone's guess.

 

[Nyden]

Ken makes some valid points.

mfp - regarding it not respecting support ... not true. For some weeks before this week's turmoil and the AGM offer, ZFX respected very well the $14 mark. Sadly it fell through it recently, perhaps due to just too much downwards pressure. Where to from here is anyone's guess.

It seems to be holding above $11 at least, so 12 could offer new support. I'm still a long term believer, and if they manage to secure AGM at a decent price, show decent earnings...I'll hold onto them.

I believe if the AGM approve the offer, or enough holders go for it - we may just see a rise.

 

[henry vanderhave]

Good evening.Like the position of this stock at moment.Itsgoing to be next one to buy into,dividends good and to me seems value at this price,plus these rumours of takeover,soon as cash is free im in.

 

[cybernigel]

Hey has anyone noticed that it appears that Comsec has removed ZFX from the list of asx accepted securities approved to be held against margin loans??

 

[DionM]

Hey has anyone noticed that it appears that Comsec has removed ZFX from the list of asx accepted securities approved to be held against margin loans??

Yep noticed that today as well. Perhaps it has fallen too much for them to allow in margin lending, or perhaps they know something more ...

 

[Nyden]

Hey has anyone noticed that it appears that Comsec has removed ZFX from the list of asx accepted securities approved to be held against margin loans??

If this is the case, I'm glad. Part of the reason this falls so hard is margin calls, which in turn trigger off more stop losses, & further margin calls.

Maybe we'll see some stability return now

 

[hacheln_mice]

Wish I had registered for CFDs so I could have shorted the living daylights out of it.

Could I borrow your time machine? Mine is broken. Wish I had fixed it before it broke...

Nothing beats reasoned analysis like hindsight.

 

[mfp]

hacheln mice,

If you're trying to take the piss out of me, you'll probably be very disappointed to know that i actually used foresight (night hindsight) this time and jumped on zfx today at 12.06, 12.15 and 12.19 (closed 12.53) when i saw the reversal take plus in the morning. These 3 parcels were actually sold above $14 recently (at a loss), but i still managed to buy them back several thousand $ cheaper today. By the way, not claiming ZFX's horror run has ended either, just trying to recoupe some big losses i've had on this stock.

 

[campag]

hacheln mice,

If you're trying to take the piss out of me, you'll probably be very disappointed to know that i actually used foresight (night hindsight) this time and jumped on zfx today at 12.06, 12.15 and 12.19 (closed 12.53) when i saw the reversal take plus in the morning. These 3 parcels were actually sold above $14 recently (at a loss), but i still managed to buy them back several thousand $ cheaper today. By the way, not claiming ZFX's horror run has ended either, just trying to recoupe some big losses i've had on this stock.

I'd call it irony actually. Foresight! isn't that the holy grail of the market?

foresight and 'night hindsight' (whatever that is) unfortunately faculties I don’t possess

 

[mfp]

I'd call it irony actually. Foresight! isn't that the holy grail of the market?

foresight and 'night hindsight' (whatever that is) unfortunately faculties I don’t possess

Another smartarse, are you two related? Firstly, i meant to say "not hindsight", it was a typo. Secondly, it wasn't irony campag, it's called following the price action and recognising when a reversal is taking place. For most of the last 9 trading sessions, ZFX has been opening near its high and closing near its low. Today it not only hit a low early in the day, but also successfully tested and held above this weeks low of 11.80, it quickly turned green and then i was fairly confident of a reversal, which proved to be correct. Your first post sure was a very constructive one campag. Keep up the good work.

 

[coolcricket]

hacheln mice,

If you're trying to take the piss out of me, you'll probably be very disappointed to know that i actually used foresight (night hindsight) this time and jumped on zfx today at 12.06, 12.15 and 12.19 (closed 12.53) when i saw the reversal take plus in the morning.

Wow, now thats a nice piece of aftertiming.


But of course well done mate

Unfortuantly, I bought in at at 14.03, thinking it had bottomed out, then it bid for AGM, ffs.

 

[hacheln_mice]

hacheln mice,

If you're trying to take the piss out of me, you'll probably be very disappointed to know that i actually used foresight (night hindsight) this time and jumped on zfx today at 12.06, 12.15 and 12.19 (closed 12.53) when i saw the reversal take plus in the morning. These 3 parcels were actually sold above $14 recently (at a loss), but i still managed to buy them back several thousand $ cheaper today. By the way, not claiming ZFX's horror run has ended either, just trying to recoupe some big losses i've had on this stock.

In that case, can I borrow you goggles of foresight? Sorry, I promise that'll be my last nasty comment...or will it? Seriously, do you know?

Just having fun. Good luck with your position.

 

[mfp]

If it does continue to run (which at this stage looks probable given European markets are up about 1.5% right now and DOW futures are +86) then just below 13.74 will be where i would probably sell half if not all of my holdings, hoping to by back lower again. 13.74 was the previous low set in place on Nov 30. When it was breached Monday of this week the share price plunged all the way to 11.80 by the following day, so it will probably be strong resistance for a while. You won't see these prices on a line chart as they occured intraday, you need to look at a candle stick chart. By the way, DOW futures are absolutely no guarantee of what will transpire during the night. If the DOW gets whacked then all of the above goes out the window.

 

[porkpie324]

If it does continue to run (which at this stage looks probable given European markets are up about 1.5% right now and DOW futures are +86) then just below 13.74 will be where i would probably sell half if not all of my holdings, hoping to by back lower again. 13.74 was the previous low set in place on Nov 30. When it was breached Monday of this week the share price plunged all the way to 11.80 by the following day, so it will probably be strong resistance for a while. You won't see these prices on a line chart as they occured intraday, you need to look at a candle stick chart. By the way, DOW futures are absolutely no guarantee of what will transpire during the night. If the DOW gets whacked then all of the above goes out the window.

MFP, I just can't follow your analysis to me ZFX is still on a downtrend. the SP corrected on 15 Nov again 30 Nov, yesterday again the SP price rose, could just be another downtrend correction. It's to early to call the bottom yet and just as risky, bottom picking is a very risky way to enter a position, better to wait until the trend changes then enter on the upward corrections. porkpie