ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[michael_selway]

Dont worry the market isn't acting positively on anything today:fan so dont get too despaired there's always tomorrow

Hm not bad

AGM - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -0.2 -0.4 7.3 9.4
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1

thx

MS

 

[Nyden]

Ugh, this is messy. AGM should just take the deal, no miner - little alone a spec is guaranteed success in this market environment, I don't care if they're months, days or even hours from production.

Why is it that once a stock is pursued, all negative sentiment disappears? ZFX is guilty of that as well (rumors, at least!). Just because a company wants to buy in, as opposed to an individual - all of a sudden all the problems & fears of yesterday are gone...I wouldn't be surprised though if a lot of people took the offer even if management said not to - many will be looking to lock in profits in these uncertain times. The company isn't big enough to have many true believers.


My portfolio is just a big pile of red, amazing what just one week can do

 

[shinobi346]

Probably because its gives the target confidence that what they have is a good thing, so all the fears are suddenly gone from them. Plus it helps them to lift the SP.



At this price or anything close to it, it still leaves ZFX plenty left behind in their war chest for further acquisitions. I look forward to the future with this stock.

 

[uhu]

Yes, i agree with you.

If I would be a speculant, i would be very very angry and sad...ZFX have been sinking since August, more than the other miners. And, there is no reason to hope for a quick rebound because the commodity prices are lower and lower.

But....

Well, maybe these facts are good for us, good for Zinifex! Let's think! Zinifex need new mines, we now it. If there is no subprime crisis and miner's share pricers would be high, Zinifex won't able to acquire so large companies....

So, for ex. if OXR will be 3 aud again, there will be a good buying opportunity situation...

ZFX
OXR:

 

[YELNATS]

At this price or anything close to it, it still leaves ZFX plenty left behind in their war chest for further acquisitions. I look forward to the future with this stock.

Based on AGM's 775 million ordinary shares, the offer is worth $697m at 90cents or $775m at $1. Quite a sizeable purchase.

What percentage of ZFX's warchest does this represent? ie. how many $'s would they have left over for other acquisiitions?

Nonethless, looks like a good fit for ZFX's nickel aspirations, particularly as Avebury is apparently only 30km down the road from ZFX's existing Rosebery operations.

 

[coolcricket]

Based on AGM's 775 million ordinary shares, the offer is worth $697m at 90cents or $775m at $1. Quite a sizeable purchase.

What percentage of ZFX's warchest does this represent? ie. how many $'s would they have left over for other acquisiitions?

Nonethless, looks like a good fit for ZFX's nickel aspirations, particularly as Avebury is apparently only 30km down the road from ZFX's existing Rosebery operations.

CNBC, and the like keep reporting between $2-2.5 billion in the warchest. So maybe only room for 1 more, not enough for a company like Oxiana, I wouldn't have thought.

 

[Nick Radge]

Zinc has had one of the largest Head & Shoulders patterns I've seen under formation since April. The target is 1600. This ZFX move should not be a surprise. Here is what was said back in early November.

BOTTOM LINE
7/11:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

7/11:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 28 secs)
LAYMANS: Todays chart is a close up view of the daily situation. It looks dire - although we are approaching a support zone right here so there is room for a bounce. The last time we looked at ZFX (3/10/07) we were concerned about the the bearish plight of Zinc and the similar price patterns forming here. With Zinc continuing to break down we must continue to think that all is not well with ZFX and that this area of support, if broken, will open the gate to further declines - possibly as far as $10.00. This scenario is best viewed on the weekly chart (refer video) so some sense of proportion can be seen. We have an obvious conflict with the Broker consensus, however, we have been spot on with Zinc and its impending weakness for over 6-months now. Until that picture changes or until ZFX changes its business model, then the risk remains to the downside.
TECHNICAL: The headline chart is the Head & Shoulders pattern on the weeklies. We discussed this in the last review just over a month ago and I have shown it again in the video. This daily chart shows what appears to be impulsive price action off the larger degree wave-B highs. Those highs were exactly the 61.8% retracement of the July - August decline. Its normal for a wave-C to resolve itself in a 5-wave pattern. This recent decline of the last week or so is exhibiting clear wave-iii traits; gaps and wide ranges. We are coming into a support zone and prices are oversold. Expect a wave-iii completion near here, a bounce back into wave-iv before another attempt at new lows, quite possibly through those made in August. The weekly indicators are still clearly trending down.

TRADING STRATEGY
7/11:
I cannot see any opportunity at this stage. Opening positions into such significant support would not be beneficial so I advise we wait for the wave-iv bounce, assess its symmetry and if a low risk entry arises we look at a position. If you're looking at longer term long positions then I do think better prices will be seen. I do stress that there is scope for a bounce and not to be sucked into that bounce as confirmation of resumption of an uptrend. If would take a move back above $19.00 to start getting bullish again in my view.

 

[uhu]

Oh I didn't check the news about Zinifex at the morning. When was the announcement? Before or after the market closing?

And...have you got informations about why ZFX dropped so much again?

 

[coolcricket]

Oh I didn't check the news about Zinifex at the morning. When was the announcement? Before or after the market closing?

And...have you got informations about why ZFX dropped so much again?

ZFX made a cash bid for "AGM", offering $0.90 per share, total offer of around 700 million I believe. Not quite sure of the true effect of this bid on Zinifex as the market had an awful day, so it seemed Zinifex was bound to go down regardless of the takeover news.

The announcement was released shortly before the open, ZFX was in a trading halt for the first hour or so, and then the floodgates opened.

 

[uhu]

ZFX made a cash bid for "AGM", offering $0.90 per share, total offer of around 700 million I believe. Not quite sure of the true effect of this bid on Zinifex as the market had an awful day, so it seemed Zinifex was bound to go down regardless of the takeover news.

The announcement was released shortly before the open, ZFX was in a trading halt for the first hour or so, and then the floodgates opened.

Thanks....I am just reading the news. Well, I am suprised.
1. ZFX earlier said acquisitions will be febr, 2008. So, why now?
2. ZFX earier said the mean target is copper...so, why they start acquisition with nickel?

And...I think this news means the end of Zinifex-Oxiana story. ZFX can't buy 1 or 2 small-cap miner AND Oxiana.

 

[rederob]

If I were ZFX's strategist, this would be a once only offer to AGM.
Over coming weeks nickel prices are likely to go into the low $20ks and drag down all nickel oriented equities.
So AGM holders might realise that selling into a safe price while peers are crumbling is a good idea after all.
AGM directors are right in calling ZFX's move "opportunistic". This is exactly when cashed up producers need to strike: As the market is tumbling, and not when the market is humming.
Anyone reading ZFX's recent releases will have seen quite clearly that the company wanted to get into a base metal "niche", and it named nickel as the metal it wanted in its stable.
Radge's charts might get the near term price action right, but in the years ahead ZFX will have strategically acquired - without debt - a resource base that maintains a strong earnings pipeline over the next 10 years, minimum.

If I were Hegarty, I would be looking at how to acquire MRE, although Glencore's holding would be problematic.

 

[Nyden]

$12? Show me what your charts say Technical-traders, surely this must be some sort of bottom? Another couple of days like this, I fear pre-10s

They're not an explorer people! Producer here! Gawd this is just painful.

Edit: $11 now What the heck is happening? Why is it falling so much harder than other stocks? Zinc hasn't fallen 20% this week, ugh.

That's it, I'm taking a stockmarket vacation!

 

[roland]

$12? Show me what your charts say Technical-traders, surely this must be some sort of bottom? Another couple of days like this, I fear pre-10s

They're not an explorer people! Producer here! Gawd this is just painful.

what the @#$#, I'm taking losses on other stuff Nyden just get ZFX at this price - the market is certainly screwed up!

 

[adobee]

Zinifex is in the 11s now... I cant believe I bought this on Friday ... what a killer.. whats the dividend going to be up to at $11 ??? 11% ???

 

[Nyden]

Oh, there's no way I'm buying anything more in this market, this is certainly an absolute disgrace though, there's no real justification for $11? I guess it could be a whole bunch of people getting stopped out, or margin calls?

I was just thinking that Adobee, their dividend is going to be over 10% at this price, ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous.


Pfft, don't complain about buying in on Friday, my entry point was nearly 17!

 

[Nick Radge]

there's no real justification for $11?

Mark Douglas calls it "the reality gap".

I think the technicians have it...

...this area of support, if broken, will open the gate to further declines - possibly as far as $10.00...

This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

 

[Nyden]

Mark Douglas calls it "the reality gap".

I think the technicians have it...




This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Well, at least if it follows that - I can cling to the fact that it won't fall too much lower!

 

[chops_a_must]

I think the technicians have it...

I have an ABC corrective level around $11, which is what I'm targeting here. It will be very interesting to see what happens, if and when it gets there. Could get nasty, very quickly.

 

[Nick Radge]

$11.05 is a measured target price off the daily charts. Unless we get some 'blow off' low between now and then or some turn in volume, then I'd say $11.05 is probable at this stage.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

 

[Nyden]

I have an ABC corrective level around $11, which is what I'm targeting here. It will be very interesting to see what happens, if and when it gets there. Could get nasty, very quickly.

Define nasty, chops? You believe it will fall even moreso lower than $11?
It's juuust holding above 12 at the moment, for sentiments sake I hope it closes at that as well.