ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[campag]

Sorry if I offended you mfp, had too many festive beers at lunch! Just having a bit of fun.

Well done for picking this 'bottom' but who really knows what it will do next.

Two months ago it went to a high of 18.65 from a 'bottom' of 16.87 5 days previous and then broke through the low 3 days later. Then a 'bottom' of 14.05 (when I got stopped out with a loss!) and climbed to 16. Another 'bottom' of 13.74 jumped again to 16 and now it's climbed from another 'bottom' of about 11.80 and closed at 12.53 (my second 'bottom' pick 3 days ago). But 11.80 is its lowest low for over a year, so I don't see no support at that level. Who really knows where this is going, even if all the fundamentals are so rosy. I know I shouldn't be bottom picking and catching a falling knife, it goes against all the rules but somehow I can't keep me hands off it. I'll probably get cut to shreds again.

A bit more constructive?

 

[tronic72]

hacheln mice,

If you're trying to take the piss out of me, you'll probably be very disappointed to know that i actually used foresight (night hindsight) this time and jumped on zfx today at 12.06, 12.15 and 12.19 (closed 12.53) when i saw the reversal take plus in the morning. These 3 parcels were actually sold above $14 recently (at a loss), but i still managed to buy them back several thousand $ cheaper today. By the way, not claiming ZFX's horror run has ended either, just trying to recoupe some big losses i've had on this stock.

MFP,

I understand the theory behind selling before or during the last 7 days of losses and buying back in. That's what I've done.

But Zinifex isn't a good thing atm. You've already copped a loss on the recent sale of Zinifex. This means you'll have to make twice as much. Just because you've lost on this stock doesn't meant you won't continue to loose. I've not seem a single broker recommend ZFX recently, what does that tell you?

Hope Santa brings you a big increase in zinc prices.

 

[vishalt]

I've not seem a single broker recommend ZFX recently, what does that tell you?

Not a lot as most brokers are pretty retarded.

"Hmm the price is going up, lets tell everyone to buy it! Hmm now its going down for no reason, we should tell clients to sell it"

Zinc still has low stockpiles and Zinifex is still a very profitable business that for some reason has fallen out of favor with the market or the players are kicking its price down so it can leap again when Xstrata or Teck make a bid.

 

[tronic72]

Not a lot as most brokers are pretty retarded.

"Hmm the price is going up, lets tell everyone to buy it! Hmm now its going down for no reason, we should tell clients to sell it"

Zinc still has low stockpiles and Zinifex is still a very profitable business that for some reason has fallen out of favor with the market or the players are kicking its price down so it can leap again when Xstrata or Teck make a bid.

What kind of comment is that???? "most brokers are pretty retarded".

Firstly it's rude and secondly it's the kind of comment a 5 year old would make!

Zinifex in actually a higher risk business because it's fate is tied to a simple factor; the price of Zinc.

If you are going to post, try posting something intelligent. If you are unable to be intelligent, post somewhere else.

 

[hacheln_mice]

What kind of comment is that???? "most brokers are pretty retarded".

Firstly it's rude and secondly it's the kind of comment a 5 year old would make!

Zinifex in actually a higher risk business because it's fate is tied to a simple factor; the price of Zinc.

If you are going to post, try posting something intelligent. If you are unable to be intelligent, post somewhere else.

Brokers are scum. There are no two ways about it. They give you 1 good tip only to draw you into 4 crappy tips. All I can say about them is that they're either Santa in disguise, or the devil in disguise.

The only person I fully trust with my money is myself, and that's only when I'm not being influenced by the advice of another.

 

[mfp]

MFP, I just can't follow your analysis to me ZFX is still on a downtrend. the SP corrected on 15 Nov again 30 Nov, yesterday again the SP price rose, could just be another downtrend correction. It's to early to call the bottom yet and just as risky, bottom picking is a very risky way to enter a position, better to wait until the trend changes then enter on the upward corrections. porkpie

Porkpie, i'm not saying i've called the bottom, but clearly a reversal did take place. That may last as little as 1 day or may even prove to be the next 12 month low. Either way, right now i would rather be on it at an average of 12.13 (yesterday's parcels) than not. If the downtrend resumes i should be able to jump back out with at least a profit. Also, it closed at it's high, and overnight zinc was up 4% and DOW was up 205, so the position is looking even better for another day at least. One thing is for sure, i won't be waiting for ZFX to break $19 before getting back on. This was one analyst's recommendation as a safe entry point for ZFX, as this would confirm a new uptrend having broken the October high.

 

[nikki]

re ZFX,

One of the cheapest stock on the ASX200 based on PE. It is the highest gross yielding stock (gross yeild of 16%) on the ASX200 if you take out centro b/c their stats are wrong now?

On the 18th December Goldman Sachs JB Were told its clients to sell Zinifex after the Allegiance bid yesterday.

Also this week after the Allegiance bid was announced:
Credit Suisse ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Zinifex
AXA Group reduced its substantial shareholding in Zinifex
UBS Nominees became a substantial shareholder in Zinifex

 

[toothfairy]

MFP,

I've not seem a single broker recommend ZFX recently, what does that tell you?

Hope Santa brings you a big increase in zinc prices.

There are 2 types of "Brokers" I can think of :

1) those whose called themselves brokers, analysts or whatever and work for the media will typically tell you the opposite of what they believe. (Not saying what they believe is actually right in the first place). Because the big institutions have control over the media and request them to tell the public (ie small investors) the opposite so they can do the right thing themselves. So at the end if they are wrong, and if you follow them, then you benefit. All very uncertain in my opinion. Best to ignore, don't read newspapers etc.

2) those who you pay for services will try to tell you what they know, but if what they know is so good then why are they still working as brokers? Does not make sense. Any 5 year old can figure it out.

Can anyone think of some other brokers?

Cheers, please don't take this post too seriously OK. I don't want war.

 

[vishalt]

What kind of comment is that???? "most brokers are pretty retarded".

Firstly it's rude and secondly it's the kind of comment a 5 year old would make!

Zinifex in actually a higher risk business because it's fate is tied to a simple factor; the price of Zinc.

If you are going to post, try posting something intelligent. If you are unable to be intelligent, post somewhere else.

How is that rude? I'm just pointing out facts.

I don't want to get kiddish about this with you so I won't! Most brokers were recommending Zinifex when it was $20 with around a price of $21.50 - $27.

And whoops as it started falling before $16 they reverse course (except for JP Morgan) and say sell with a target of around $12 - $14.

What's more amazing is how brokers jump on the same bandwagon as speculators - Zinifex is tied to zinc true, but have you noticed how the price of lead has been boiling away - yet no broker has mentioned the lead aspect of Zinifex?

Speculators have belted down the price of Zinc EVEN as the stockpiles got lower, and most brokers will jump on the bandwagon saying "there's going to be a huge surplus!" even though all the Zinc companies like Hindustan, Korea Zinc and Teck Cominco have said there are still shortages.

So I very firmly stand by my point that brokers are retarded, and the more you learn to trust yourself instead of a broker is the first step of winning in the stock market.

 

[vishalt]

What kind of comment is that???? "most brokers are pretty retarded".

Firstly it's rude and secondly it's the kind of comment a 5 year old would make!

Zinifex in actually a higher risk business because it's fate is tied to a simple factor; the price of Zinc.

If you are going to post, try posting something intelligent. If you are unable to be intelligent, post somewhere else.

How is that rude? I'm just pointing out facts.

I don't want to get kiddish about this with you so I won't! Most brokers were recommending Zinifex when it was $20 with around a price of $21.50 - $27 citing the main reason being "there's going to be a Zinc shortage till 2009!"

And whoops as it started falling before $16 they reverse course (except for JP Morgan) and say sell with a target of around $12 - $14.

What's more amazing is how brokers jump on the same bandwagon as speculators - Zinifex is tied to zinc true, but have you noticed how the price of lead has been boiling away - yet no broker has mentioned the lead aspect of Zinifex?

Speculators have belted down the price of Zinc EVEN as the stockpiles got lower, and most brokers will jump on the bandwagon saying "there's going to be a huge surplus!" even though all the Zinc companies like Hindustan, Korea Zinc and Teck Cominco have said there are still shortages.

So I very firmly stand by my point that brokers are retarded, and the more you learn to trust yourself instead of a broker is the first step of winning in the stock market.

Brokers are scum. There are no two ways about it. They give you 1 good tip only to draw you into 4 crappy tips. All I can say about them is that they're either Santa in disguise, or the devil in disguise.

The only person I fully trust with my money is myself, and that's only when I'm not being influenced by the advice of another.

He agrees ^^!

 

[toothfairy]

MFP,

I've not seem a single broker recommend ZFX recently, what does that tell you?

Hope Santa brings you a big increase in zinc prices.

Actually, now that you mentioned no brokers recommend ZFX is the best reason I will buy back some on Monday. This share is my favourite.

Thanks.

 

[dascore]

Whether ZFX has bottomed , temporarily or otherwise, is best left open for debate - as the above case shows. But traders are interested to find opportunities for generating profits, and in this instance, I found a buying signal for ZFX using HOURLY charts as opposed to daily charts as shown in the chart below.

I will want to forget about whether it has bottomed or otherwise- and just trade it when the hourly selling signal comes, and then trade it again when the buy signal appears...because that is the job of the trader.

Research has shown analysis on hourly data provide better entries and exits on almost 80% of the trades generated from a daily chart, and also reduces the size of the stops. This improves efficiency, and provides an increase of 17.8% in profits on winning trades and reduces the drawdown by 14.4% on losing trades.

But if ZFX has genuinely bottomed, I would like to know

Merry Christmas everyone!

dascore

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice and is for information and entertainment only, and may not have any value. This is NOT a recommendation for you to trade in stocks. Trading carries risk. Always consult your licensed dealer, stockbroker or licensed financial planner if you wish to trade DYOR.

 

[rederob]

dascore
I don't think ZFX has bottomed,
I also don't think commodities, and in this case zinc, have called the fat lady to the stage.
Despite the presumption that zinc in in oversupply, LME inventories have been flat most of the year: In fact stock levels are lower than a year ago.
There is a lot of supply coming on stream in 2008, and there is also the prospect of many of the smaller projects being put on hold.
Not only have prices slumped, all production costs have increased markedly.
Which means only the big volume, high margin projects, are now getting the nod.
My crystal ball is unwell, and I am presently about 40% cash.
I am reluctant to get back on board any equities until mid-2008, but will keep a watch on the cashed up miners, as they now have the opportunity to pick the eyes out of small fry at bargain prices.
I think nickel prices are about $5k too high at present, and expect them to tail off further into 2008 - perhaps support at around $20k.
So I will be very surprised if ZFX ups it bid substantially to nail AGM.
With sub-prime spooking all the markets at a whim, I can't see where any traction will come from in the foreseeable future.
Count me down for now, but not quite out.

 

[adobee]

I have to agree with the comments i have read so far most brokers predict stocks which are already in an uptrend.. there are not many working on a buy low sell high theory they are buy when its strong up and predict it will keep going up.. When zinifex was $20 everyone was bullish.. Credit suisse must employee a huge team of analysts what was there advise put millions in at $16 and sell out at $12 .. (spastics come to mind) and people think I care if they dont cover the stock.. you can now buy at $12 and nothing much has changed expect they are in a stronger position than before when the stock was $18..

 

[mfp]

To the people who bagged me for buying ZFX Friday, they're up $3300 right now. By the way, also bought PDN at 5.98 and 6.08 Friday. They're up $2720.

 

[coolcricket]

To the people who bagged me for buying ZFX Friday, they're up $3300 right now. By the way, also bought PDN at 5.98 and 6.08 Friday. They're up $2720.

mfp, rather than "bag" you out for having the foresight to buy ZFX, and now PDN , it was really the whole aftertiming factor. Now you have added to that by stating you bought PDN last friday, just a suggestion, but for added creditibility, maybe you should have the foresight to post your moves straight after you make them???

 

[mfp]

9003787 31694249 21-12-2007 Buy ZFX 1,500 12.0600 12.0800 $18,119.95 28-12-2007
9005644 31703307 21-12-2007 Buy PDN 4,000 5.9800 5.9875 $23,949.95 28-12-2007
9005815 31702791 21-12-2007 Buy ZFX 1,500 12.1900 12.2100 $18,314.95 28-12-2007
9005947 31705054 21-12-2007 Buy ZFX 1,500 12.1500 12.1700 $18,254.95 28-12-2007
9006160 31706556 21-12-2007 Buy PDN 4,000 6.0800 6.0875 $24,349.95 28-12-2007

Feel free to contact Westpac Broking to confirm the contract numbers, they're the ones on the left hand column.

PS I have no reason to lie mate. I have already stated that I have had big losses on ZFX in the last two months.
How about an apology coolcricket?

PS I have just sold 3000 ZFX, 1500 at 12.84 and 1500 at 12.79.

 

[coolcricket]

9003787 31694249 21-12-2007 Buy ZFX 1,500 12.0600 12.0800 $18,119.95 28-12-2007
9005644 31703307 21-12-2007 Buy PDN 4,000 5.9800 5.9875 $23,949.95 28-12-2007
9005815 31702791 21-12-2007 Buy ZFX 1,500 12.1900 12.2100 $18,314.95 28-12-2007
9005947 31705054 21-12-2007 Buy ZFX 1,500 12.1500 12.1700 $18,254.95 28-12-2007
9006160 31706556 21-12-2007 Buy PDN 4,000 6.0800 6.0875 $24,349.95 28-12-2007

Feel free to contact Westpac Broking to confirm the contract numbers, they're the ones on the left hand column.

PS I have no reason to lie mate. I have already stated that I have had big losses on ZFX in the last two months.
How about an apology coolcricket?

PS I have just sold 3000 ZFX, 1500 at 12.84 and 1500 at 12.79.

Well done mate, much better with proof, I never accused you of lying, just aftertiming. Anyway, have a nice christmas mfp, I'm sure it will be with the above trades.


p.s. sorry about being skeptical before, I like the odd punt, and having experienced the "Betfair" forum, you will understand the skepticism. I am now realising that most people on here are pretty genuine, unlike the Betfair forums.

 

[mfp]

No problems coolcricket, apology accepted. Actually thinking of selling the other 1500, $13 looks like another top. Have a Merry Christmas

 

[Nyden]

Is anything happening with AGM? Are they still considering it? Are they just going to stall until they're in production, what's the go?

I wish they would just make a recommendation to shareholders already, they're not exactly a Rio-Tinto, & even they gave a faster response than this!