Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Copper

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I thought OZL would have done better than it did today, but for some reason it has been sidestepped for many other mining companies.
Nevertheless, with today's record high copper price, and more increases to come, OZL's path higher seems assured imho:
1646631804490.png
Note that depending on what price instrument is being used, different prices from above appear, such as at Kitco:
1646631967211.png
1646632018786.png
 
The dramas in South America are ongoing with NYSE listed Southern Copper Corporation reporting a cessation of mining at the Cuajone Mine in Peru after being blocked by protesters.

The mine producers around 7,000 tons of Copper annually.

The LME’s Copper industry group recommended banning new deliveries of Russian metal to LME warehouses which, if it proceeded, would send shockwaves throughout the Copper markets.

Such a move could see a chaotic and dysfunctional Copper market.

With Copper inventories at a 16-month low this might be a bridge too far and to date Europe has not placed any sanctions on Russian metal producers.

*Excerpt above from stock head newsletter

P.S. Bullish for a stock like OGC given it's Philippines Copper mine ramping up production as we speak
 
Goldman Sachs has flagged a copper "scarcity episode" by the end of 2022 as global stocks of the metal shrink. Goldman also expects a new record high within three month and a steady climb to US$13,000 a tonne in a years time.

Mining.com claims that Miners need to invest over $100 billion to meet copper demand.

We could be heading towards a copper supply squeeze unless new mines come into productions very quickly this year.
 
I've been caught off guard by the recent selloff in copper. My longer term outlook remains firmly bullish so eyeing this selloff as a pull-back opportunity. I've not sold my positions in copper producers (OZL, 29M).

My preferred short term trading instruments for copper are COPX and FCX. They look like they've hit a swing bottom overnight. Looks set for a day and swing trade tonight.
 
i am looking to add extra AIS , have a very comfortable position in OZL ( average share price $5.17 .. 'free-carried ' ) , a position with BHP that feels about right until i see how the WPL deal shakes out

i don't trade much , so no fancy stuff in my tool-kit

IN THEORY copper has a nice future ( whether we go EV or not ) but then we have that market manipulation addiction ( on several commodities and currencies ) , i am assuming Australia will continue to discourage any significant manufacturing locally
 
divs4ever said:
IN THEORY copper has a nice future ( whether we go EV or not ) but then we have that market manipulation addiction ( on several commodities and currencies ) , i am assuming Australia will continue to discourage any significant manufacturing locally
Click to expand...

There is actually major RISK with copper in the medium term. As in, we are running out of supply on a global scale. It takes so long for major mines to be realised I think the issue is going to get even worse. With environmentalists, indigenous, green tape, red tape, geopolitics - the supply/demand dynamic is going to be exponential for the POC in my opinion.
 
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Sean K said:
There is actually major RISK with copper in the medium term. As in, we are running out of supply on a global scale. It takes so long for major mines to be realised I think the issue is going to get even worse. With environmentalists, indigenous, green tape, red tape, geopolitics - the supply/demand dynamic is going to exponential for the POC in my opinion.
Click to expand...
yep !
but i not only collect old silver coins ( wink )
 
Sean K said:
There is actually major RISK with copper in the medium term. As in, we are running out of supply on a global scale. It takes so long for major mines to be realised I think the issue is going to get even worse. With environmentalists, indigenous, green tape, red tape, geopolitics - the supply/demand dynamic is going to be exponential for the POC in my opinion.
Click to expand...
My weekly Copper chart suggests you are right Sean. To me, these gaps down and fail of the 200dmas is not a pretty sight and it will also have a flow-on effect on other commodities and sectors.

copper weekly gap down 6.5.22.png
 
US$4/lb is looking like solid support for copper. The recent selloff looks to be over and a rebound appears to be in its early stages. Sentiment is bullish, with even news.com.au jumping on the copper bandwagon. The fundamentals are hard to argue with and talk of a supply squeeze won't go away.

I think we'll almost certainly see US$5/lb copper in the next 12 months, but my money is on that happening before the end of 2022.

Copper_5yr.png
 
greggles said:
US$4/lb is looking like solid support for copper. The recent selloff looks to be over and a rebound appears to be in its early stages. Sentiment is bullish, with even news.com.au jumping on the copper bandwagon. The fundamentals are hard to argue with and talk of a supply squeeze won't go away.

I think we'll almost certainly see US$5/lb copper in the next 12 months, but my money is on that happening before the end of 2022.

View attachment 142435
Click to expand...

Read that article earlier today and I agree it's medium-long term going to go much higher but short term I'm on the fence. Just not sure how the likely recession is going to go and how-when China comes out of Covid. And, don't mention the war.
 
Sean K said:
Read that article earlier today and I agree it's medium-long term going to go much higher but short term I'm on the fence. Just not sure how the likely recession is going to go and how-when China comes out of Covid. And, don't mention the war.
Click to expand...

If copper breaks down under US$4/lb then I'm out, but I don't see that happening with supply tightening and sentiment high. I think the recent selloff was profit taking and Ukraine war jitters and mostly unrelated to the fundamentals.

If recession becomes an issue in the next few months then we'll see other metals like iron ore and zinc turn bearish before copper I reckon because of copper's connection to the green economy and decarbonisation. Short term, I think we're heading back to US$4.80/lb.
 
greggles said:
US$4/lb is looking like solid support for copper. The recent selloff looks to be over and a rebound appears to be in its early stages. Sentiment is bullish, with even news.com.au jumping on the copper bandwagon. The fundamentals are hard to argue with and talk of a supply squeeze won't go away.

I think we'll almost certainly see US$5/lb copper in the next 12 months, but my money is on that happening before the end of 2022.

View attachment 142435
Click to expand...

it seems I'll be taking an interest in Copper trends and forward looking projects too now that Antilles Gold (AAU) have updated that they'll be focussing on a couple of significant copper deposits as projects #2 and #3

at a high level I've seen that global Copper Demand is forecast for 16% increase through to 2030 and yet a 12% drop off in production due to being past peak resource of the currently actively producing mines, which probably fits AAU's focus and fast tracking in effect

 
signalFollower said:
it seems I'll be taking an interest in Copper trends and forward looking projects too now that Antilles Gold (AAU) have updated that they'll be focussing on a couple of significant copper deposits as projects #2 and #3

at a high level I've seen that global Copper Demand is forecast for 16% increase through to 2030 and yet a 12% drop off in production due to being past peak resource of the currently actively producing mines, which probably fits AAU's focus and fast tracking in effect

Click to expand...


company announcement today (7th June) to confirm a Reporisitioning and focus upon expiditing two large copper deposit systems

1654564040203.png
 
Despite copper's price decline, there is not a great deal available in warehouses. Here's SFE:
1654591410602.png
And here's LME's:
1654591919525.png
Add that to Comex warehousings and there's less than 180k tonnes of copper spare, which is exceptionally tight and less than was available at end December 2021.

New mine supply is certainly coming online this year, but it has been countered by increasing usage. And continuing to confound us is the Russian situation, so it won't take much for copper to be squeezed north again.
 
rederob said:
Have you considered posting these snippets to the Antilles Gold (AAU) thread?
Click to expand...
to be honest as this thread is generically called "copper" I felt it relevant to mention new potential supply projects and any timelines around those, given the whole copper / EV thing is about demand exceeding supply, especially with there being little investment in Copper mines over the past 4 decades.

Unlike another gold related thread, which is named "Gold Price - where is it heading ?"

Maybe this thread can be renamed if its intended purpose is simply price charts and projections ?
 

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