Copper

[MARKETWINNER]

https://investinghaven.com/commodities-gold/copper-price-forecast-2019/
A Copper Price Forecast for 2019

 

[Ann]

Looking at the end of month, monthly chart for Copper, the price has veered away from the falling overhead resistance line. Still no conclusive direction to make a call IMO.

 

[Ann]

Looking at the monthly chart, Copper price veered away from the overhead falling resistance line last month, this month it has had a solid fall and is heading down to the rising support, will it hold? My thoughts are it will, but I could be wrong!

 

[Smurf1976]

Looking at the monthly chart, Copper price veered away from the overhead falling resistance line last month, this month it has had a solid fall and is heading down to the rising support, will it hold? My thoughts are it will, but I could be wrong!

It's going to have to break one way or another before too much longer and whichever way it goes will likely be an indicator for other things as well.

Oil's also significant in that regard and it has gone to the down side at least for the present time.

 

[notting]

Dr Copper says - NO

 

[tinhat]

I don't think that this spring can be coiled too much tighter.



I suspect that many, like me, are doing their strategic thinking for 2020. I'm already long CZI (Neo-Babel is a nickel & copper JV with OZL with a pre-feasibility study due out early 2020). I used to be in Finders Resources, but the Indonesians forced us out of our copper project in Indonesia, so CZI is my only big copper exposure.

Other than OZL and SFR, are there any other copper miners/explorers out there worth a look at?

 

[sptrawler]

.

Other than OZL and SFR, are there any other copper miners/explorers out there worth a look at?

There is Metals X (MLX) and Havilah (HAV), pretty small from memory.

 

[jbocker]

Other than OZL and SFR, are there any other copper miners/explorers out there worth a look at?

I don't know what qualifies 'as worth having a look at', Hot Chile (HCH) are currently in a drilling program and are spruiking they have some impressive drill results and claim to potentially have a very large resource. From memory a resource estimate will be done 1st half 2020. Lots of shares a lot of work yet to be done.
To tell the truth I don't know if this just another explorer amongst a myriad of other copper explorers. Appreciate your thoughts but I see it as hugely speculative and with way too many shares on issue.
It is my punt tip in the 2020 yearly and the Jan comp,

 

[frugal.rock]

BHP and Glencore seem to be the larger companies mining some copper other than OZL.
Apparently it's expensive to mine and smelter which would limit smaller player's or at least put them in the higher risk basket case...
Regulation around smeltering is set to tighten up in the next few years also.

 

[rederob]

Other than OZL and SFR, are there any other copper miners/explorers out there worth a look at?

Take a look at SVY which is actively drilling and yielding some nice early results.
From its website:

"The two flagship projects, Ararat and Stavely, host Inferred Mineral Resources that contain over 130Kt of copper and over 19,000 ounces of gold plus accessory zinc and silver. Stavely Minerals is targeting a Cadia-type gold-copper porphyry (Stavely Project), and a Degrussa-style VMS (volcanogenic massive sulphide) deposit (Ararat Project). There are also indications of Stawell-style gold mineralisation at the Ararat Project."​

 

[tinhat]

I don't know what qualifies 'as worth having a look at', Hot Chile (HCH) are currently in a drilling program and are spruiking they have some impressive drill results and claim to potentially have a very large resource. ...
It is my punt tip in the 2020 yearly and the Jan comp,

Thanks. I looked into HCH last night and opened up a very small position this morning. I'll post more on the HCH thread later. Good luck with the tipping comp.

BHP and Glencore seem to be the larger companies mining some copper other than OZL.

I'm quite focused on which metals I want to invest in so the major diversified miners are out for me (I'm not interested in hydrocarbons).

Take a look at SVY which is actively drilling and yielding some nice early results.

Will do. I will also look at MLX and HAV. Thanks @sptrawler

 

[jbocker]

Good luck with the tipping comp.

I was wrong in my tipping as it doesn't qualify for the 2020 comp. My punt tip in that was Greenland Minerals (GGG) ...Rare Earths.

 

[fergee]

There is HGO but they have had been poorly managed over the years and the SP has the crap beaten out of it. Although they could give good exposure to the underlying asset if copper breaks out to the upside. They are producing at Kanmanto and have been running a drilling program to try and extend the resource. Its running a price:book of 0.86 so there may be some value there but best to DYOD

 

[tinhat]

Excerpts below are from The coming copper crunch (2018)

Copper use parity isn’t going to happen, it can’t.

“Concern about the extent of mineral resources arises when the stock of metal needed to provide the services enjoyed by the highly developed nations is compared with that needed to provide comparable services with existing technology to a large part of the world’s population. Our stock data demonstrate that current technologies would require the entire copper and zinc ore resource in the lithosphere and perhaps that of platinum as well. Even a lower level of services could not be sustained worldwide because a continuing supply of new metal is needed to make up for inevitable losses in the recycling of the metal stock-in-use.

Substitution has the potential to ameliorate this situation, but one should not automatically assume that technology will produce a satisfactory substitute for every service at an affordable price and precisely when needed.

…anthropogenic and lithospheric stocks of at least some metals are becoming equivalent in magnitude, that world-wide demand continues to increase, and that the virgin stocks of several metals appear inadequate to sustain the modern ‘‘developed world’’ quality of life for all Earth’s peoples under contemporary technology…Do we really envision a developed world quality of life for all of the people of the planet…?” R. B. Gordon, M. Bertram, and T. E. Graedel, Metal Stocks and Sustainability

 

[rederob]

Copper prices are making another solid run north on stock drawdowns:

The above is a little misleading in that less than 45000 is actually "available" as the remainder are cancelled warrants.

Oddly, however, little price movement over the past fortnight:


Maybe insiders know there are big volumes ready to backfill warehouses, as this has been a repeating trend over the past 5 years:

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The Chinese Government are talking about blocking imports of Australian Copper from Friday of this week.

Australian exporters to China face $6 billion 'D-Day'

China is banning Australian wine, copper, barley, coal, sugar, timber and lobster exports from Friday, an unconfirmed customs official notice says.

www.smh.com.au

gg

 

[frugal.rock]

I had heard on Landline, that barley had caught up with more exports to other countries and a near "pre pandemic" price recovery.
Sell our products to other countries.
For the interim, No pain, no gain?

 

[tinhat]

Other than the Chinese who else are the major smelters of copper ore?



Chart above shows Coppock curve below copper price in US$ per tonne.

OZL share price is doing well.

 

[Trav.]

Some commentary on the price of copper below. First time for me looking at copper and it is interesting to see what has happened previously and will it happen again?

I am interested in your thoughts on the impact to the asx companies if the copper price does retrace.



Some copper companies for reference, but please note that I have not researched all of these. This is just a Sunday distraction when I should be out doing those chores.

 

[Smurf1976]

Other than the Chinese who else are the major smelters of copper ore?

In terms of countries China's the big one but the other significant ones are, in order from largest after China, Chile, Japan, USA, Russia, Congo, South Korea, Germany, India, Poland, Spain, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Australia. There are also others of less significance individually.

Refined copper production global distribution by country 2018 | Statista

This statistic displays the distribution of refined copper production worldwide in 2018, by country.

www.statista.com