Short signals---something different

tech/a · 21 August 2008

Perhaps we need a change from all this Buy buy buy type threads!

Advanced Get threw out type 1 sells (which are wave 4 corrections in a 5 wave down pattern) on the following tonight.

BHP
NWS
WPL.

Stops would for me be the most recent highs.(From a day to a week on others.)

BHP trade only shown.
For educational purposes only not a recommendation of any sort.

nomore4s · 21 August 2008

Re: Short signals---something different.

tech/a said:
Perhaps we need a change from all this Buy buy buy type threads!

Advanced Get threw out type 1 sells (which are wave 4 corrections in a 5 wave down pattern) on the following tonight.

BHP
NWS
WPL.

Stops would for me be the most recent highs.(From a day to a week on others.)

BHP trade only shown.
For educational purposes only not a recommendation of any sort.

WPL looks interesting, although the strong support at $50 is a bit of a worry.

Aussiest · 21 August 2008

WPL is interesting. It has just broken through $56.00 resistance, so it will be interesting to see if it holds up. I have a feeling it may reach $57, but don't know if it will be strong enough to breach this level. It may be a good short at $56.50-$57, but i don't know.

Right now i am 65% bullish on WPL and 35% bearish. I wouldn't do anything till i was sure though.

The price of oil is on the move though, so we'll see what happens.

nomore4s · 21 August 2008

Aussiest said:
WPL is interesting. It has just broken through $56.00 resistance, so it will be interesting to see if it holds up. I have a feeling it may reach $57, but don't know if it will be strong enough to breach this level. It may be a good short at $56.50-$57, but i don't know.

Right now i am 65% bullish on WPL and 35% bearish. I wouldn't do anything till i was sure though.

The price of oil is on the move though, so we'll see what happens.

While it may have broken through $56.00 look at the close of todays bar as well as the 2 bars before it, looks like rejection to me. To be confirmed either way of course.

Whiskers · 21 August 2008

tech/a said:
Perhaps we need a change from all this Buy buy buy type threads!

Advanced Get threw out type 1 sells (which are wave 4 corrections in a 5 wave down pattern) on the following tonight.

BHP
NWS
WPL.

Stops would for me be the most recent highs.(From a day to a week on others.)

BHP trade only shown.
For educational purposes only not a recommendation of any sort.

For educational purposes, tech/a, I think BHP has finished wave 5 down and not quite finished minute wave iii up, yet.

Don't trust computer generated buy and sell signals. :cautious:

I'd stay long until probably $41.98... cos I reckon gold has bottomed and into a primary wave 3 up with some of the commodities to follow soon, as well as the AUD continuing to fall.

Aussiest · 21 August 2008

In relation to WPL: Hmm, i know it's contenious. I thought it was going to be bearish on the 13th of August, but it shot up to $54.00 on no significant news on the 14th. Go figure.

Since then, it has not been sure of whether to be bullish or bearish, IMO. But, i get the feeling it is slightly bullish. If the price of oil keep rising, it will rise a little, but, i don't know if i can see it breaching $57.00 at this stage, even on marginal rises in oil. I am slightly bullish on WPL, but not enough to bet on it breaching $57.00. But, then again, i don't know if i am bearish enough to bet it will fall to $50, or even $49.00 <.

I will have to wait until after FY results to bet either way on this stock. The results are what is skewing it now. The macro-economic / fundamental environment is not stable enough to make a call right now. Just my opinion, mind you.

nomore4s · 22 August 2008

Just had a close look at BHP, does look promising imo.

Right on a resistance zone atm and with the inability to push through it and the very weak close today probably worth considering.

Nice low risk entry too.

Discussion only.

Whiskers · 22 August 2008

nomore4s said:
Just had a close look at BHP, does look promising imo.

Right on a resistance zone atm and with the inability to push through it and the very weak close today probably worth considering.

Nice low risk entry too.

Discussion only.

I wonder if 'Advanced Get' see's a $3 or $4 rise in oil and say 20 to $30 in the POG coming.

That'll probably be just the tonic to push it through tomorrow.

It's Snake Pliskin · 22 August 2008

Aussiest said:
WPL is interesting. It has just broken through $56.00 resistance, so it will be interesting to see if it holds up. I have a feeling it may reach $57, but don't know if it will be strong enough to breach this level. It may be a good short at $56.50-$57, but i don't know.

Right now i am 65% bullish on WPL and 35% bearish. I wouldn't do anything till i was sure though.

The price of oil is on the move though, so we'll see what happens.

Ausiest how did you come to be 35% and 65% bearish bullish? Why not 34% and 66%? Or say 40% 60%? And how will you be sure?

I am really curious as to how it can be measured. I am always looking for new stuff to help me with.

Tech,

Are you taking any trades with these signals? Also, how has your experience of using Aget been? Do you like it and is it worth the expense considering the other software you do use? What is Tradeguider indicating with these short signals by the way?

Aussiest · 22 August 2008

It's Snake Pliskin said:
Ausiest how did you come to be 35% and 65% bearish bullish? Why not 34% and 66%? Or say 40% 60%? And how will you be sure?

Oh, pftt. Lol. I can't be sure. How can anybody be sure? Even you technical analysts?!

Well, look at the price of oil now. It says it all. Use whatever stats or proportions you like to represent a 'hunch'. Actually, it's not a hunch. The evidence is right in front of us. But, i don't think it's going to be enduring.

I am so sick of the puppeteers pulling our strings. The price of oil goes up, financials go down. Who profits? I'm at the stage where i don't care any more. It's called capitulation of the senses

utthedoor:.

tech/a · 22 August 2008

Firstly I take signals as ALERTS.

Then let the brain do the appropriate analysis.
ie risk and any other supporting analysis.
Trades can take a few days to be really clear or can be immediate.

I get them wrong just like everyone else.
BHP will be of interest as its looking like an opportunity soon.
Sure its possible this wave 4 will extend before capitulation.
When I take a trade I'll be looking for low risk and good potential R/R.

The Weekly chart could be seen as showing a completion of this 3 waves down making this wave A and the current up move on the weekly could form a wave B followed by more weakness into the longerterm pattern of wave C Chart below.

Snake
Tradeguider isnt indicating anything with any of these--yet.

Good to see some discussion.
Yes I do take some of the trades but not all.

It's Snake Pliskin · 23 August 2008

Aussiest said:
Oh, pftt. Lol. I can't be sure. How can anybody be sure? Even you technical analysts?!

Well, look at the price of oil now. It says it all. Use whatever stats or proportions you like to represent a 'hunch'. Actually, it's not a hunch. The evidence is right in front of us. But, i don't think it's going to be enduring.

I am so sick of the puppeteers pulling our strings. The price of oil goes up, financials go down. Who profits? I'm at the stage where i don't care any more. It's called capitulation of the senses utthedoor:.

Thanks.

It's Snake Pliskin · 23 August 2008

tech/a said:
Firstly I take signals as ALERTS.

Then let the brain do the appropriate analysis.
ie risk and any other supporting analysis.
Trades can take a few days to be really clear or can be immediate.

I get them wrong just like everyone else.
BHP will be of interest as its looking like an opportunity soon.
Sure its possible this wave 4 will extend before capitulation.
When I take a trade I'll be looking for low risk and good potential R/R.

The Weekly chart could be seen as showing a completion of this 3 waves down making this wave A and the current up move on the weekly could form a wave B followed by more weakness into the longerterm pattern of wave C Chart below.

Snake
Tradeguider isnt indicating anything with any of these--yet.

Good to see some discussion.
Yes I do take some of the trades but not all.

Tech,

What do you use that stochastic on the chart for with EW?

tech/a · 23 August 2008

Yes.

I'll post up a setup from E/W as a demo if you like.

tech/a · 23 August 2008

Snake.

Ive used BHP.
My overall analysis of the market is at this point bearish.
As such I'm looking for a direction after this period of whipsawing finishes.
The market "looks" as if it has no idea wether it wants to continue down or resume up.

This VSA chart shows this whipsawing in the XJO the blue trend indicators are all over the place.

Note the really high volumes in the light pink area preceed good moves.
Nothing for us YET on any capitulation of this moves so I'm still bearish over all.

BHP isnt displaying the higher lows and highs assoviated with a change in trend.
More so a corrective move into this wave 4. Its been alerted by AGET that this is what it thinks this move is. At this point I have no reason to doubt this.
So I'm looking for a place to take this short position.
Stochastic is close as are points given to me by other analysis.

Finally BHP's VSA chart.
Yesterdays very tight range reasonable volume bar indicates selling.
Id expect to see higher volume on rises from here--possibly with weakness shown in the bar.
IE closing off its highs.

Will keep this going if interested.
Will be proven right or wrong eventually.

Boggo · 23 August 2008

Here is how MTPredictor sees BHP.
The "decision points" are almost the same process as the "MOB" in Aget, based on the last pivot.

(click to enlarge)

Boggo · 23 August 2008

And this would be how a trade may eventuate if it rises into the DP and does a U turn (we all know how often they go according to plan

)
A close above $41.80 though and all bets are off.

(click to enlarge)

Boggo · 23 August 2008

I didn't take this trade but I know how my procedure would have gone :shake:

Out of interest, how would others have handled this trade, the assumption is that you would have entered as shown with the eventual target being the top of the DP box.

Would you have been there all the way to the DP or would you be out and if so, where/why ?

(click to enlarge)

tech/a · 23 August 2008

Boggo.

If it was me Id have been out earlier the way Ive been trading lately!

My stop would have been to tight.

But take a look at the short setup on Fridays bar!!!!!
Massive volume
Squat bar.
Divergence in the stochastic
Still in a corrective phase!
A lower bar on Monday will see an alert appear.

Boggo · 23 August 2008

I didn't notice that tech/a, but now that you mention it...

It is an erratic chart but the overall trend is still in place. MTPredictor adopts an isolation approach and works backwards from a pivot and then projects a potential (W4 in this case) point forward on the current leg.

I could do the same from about 3 points on this chart with different outcomes.

Could you elaborate on the implications of the high volume and the open and close on the last bar being the same.

I will track down the reason for that vol increase later.

(click to enlarge)

Short signals---something different

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