ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[Nyden]

I'm curious, why do you say it won't respect support levels (for my own learning more than anything).

It has tested the $14 area a couple of times of recently, including the August correction.

Yes, it does seem to hold at $14 - still, not exactly a comfortable support level for someone who's entry point is high 16s :.

I've been tempted to top up at this price to lower my average; but - my conservative ways just don't allow for that! At least, in the current market climate.

Anyone read up on their presentation? They are apparently eye-ing potential acquisitions, and are as I had thought; after either production or near production mines.

 

[Stan 101]

I just heard a report on ABC radio stating Citibank (group) have downgraded their half year to june 08 zinc prices 35%!!!!

Can anyone find anything to substantiate this?

cheers,

 

[Stan 101]

Anyone read up on their presentation? They are apparently eye-ing potential acquisitions, and are as I had thought; after either production or near production mines.

CBH would be a nice pickup. It's operational, diversified and has plenty more on coming on tap..


if only

 

[roland]

I'm sort of, "of the opinion", that ZFX generally gets a double whammy on market weaknesses. Not only do they secumb to a general index fall - but often the falling market also drives metal prices down.

At the current time Zn is quite weak due to weakness in demand and anticipated over supply and increasing Chinese output. We have also seen in recent times a strengthening of the AU dollar and a weakness in the greenback - all put a cloud on Zinifex's profit expectations.

Now the odd thing is that ZFX is very profitable and since the Nyrstar deal thay are very well cashed up. Credit Suisse have been buying heavily, they sit out like a sore thumb as a take-over opportunity, on the other hand - they make no bones about looking for take-over targets themselves.

The SP is very low on the chart, I would wonder why, if you are a Zinifex follower, that you wouldn't be buying right now. I am - I bought a heap at $14.10 - wow, couldn't believe my luck to get it at such a price!!

 

[Nyden]

I just heard a report on ABC radio stating Citibank (group) have downgraded their half year to june 08 zinc prices 35%!!!!

Can anyone find anything to substantiate this?

cheers,

Yes, already read that this morning.

I think most people expected that? There's been talk of a zinc surplus for months : Not that I'm taking much notice of the opinion of Citi at the moment

 

[bigdog]

Today's Herald Sun

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22754890-664,00.html


Zinifex outlook remains cloudy
Felicity Williams

November 14, 2007 12:00am

ZINIFEX'S soon-to-be-named chief executive could have his work cut out - the mining giant has warned that lower zinc prices and a falling US dollar will hit sales revenue.

And the fact that analysts are tipping Zinifex as a prime takeover target in the rapidly-consolidating resources sector could further complicate life for the lead and zinc miner's new boss.

Zinifex's acting chief executive, Tony Barnes, said yesterday that zinc prices might fall as more supply came from new mines and expansions.

"Lower zinc prices and higher Australian dollar-US dollar exchange rates will lower revenue," he said in a presentation to investors.

"Cost pressures persist - a similar rate of increase to financial year 2007 is expected."

Zinifex shares fell as low as $14.05 before rebounding to finish the day at $14.38.

Mr Barnes has been filling in as chief executive in addition to his regular duties as chief finance officer since the departure of former Zinifex boss Greig Gailey in June.

Zinifex expects to appoint its new chief executive by the end of the year, with former WMC Resources head Andrew Michelmore now considered the likely choice.

Former BHP executive Chris Lynch was rumoured to be frontrunner for the position until he accepted the top job at toll road operator Transurban last month.

Citigroup analyst Clarke Wilkins yesterday downgraded Zinifex's target share price to $15.20 from $18.50 and reduced his forecast for 2007-08 earnings per share to $1.72 from $2.50.

"Our estimates and target price for Zinifex have been mauled by a 29 per cent downgrade to our 2008 zinc price forecast to $US1.25 per pound from $US1.75 per pound previously," Mr Wilkins said in a note sent to investors.

Zinifex has previously been tipped as a potential merger partner for fellow Melbourne-based miner Oxiana, as well as a possible takeover target for Anglo-Swiss mining giant Xstrata.

The company pocketed some $1.6 billion from the sale of its smelting assets via the public listing of Nyrstar in Belgium last month.

Mr Wilkins also noted that Zinifex's bulging cash wallet of around $2.6 billion gave it "substantial options" to undertake its own M&A activity, fast-track projects or return capital to shareholders.

Zinifex reported a $1.3 billion net profit in 2006-07, up 24 per cent on the previous financial year on the back of higher zinc and lead prices.

 

[Nyden]

Today's Herald Sun

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22754890-664,00.html


Zinifex outlook remains cloudy
Felicity Williams

November 14, 2007 12:00am

ZINIFEX'S soon-to-be-named chief executive could have his work cut out - the mining giant has warned that lower zinc prices and a falling US dollar will hit sales revenue.

And the fact that analysts are tipping Zinifex as a prime takeover target in the rapidly-consolidating resources sector could further complicate life for the lead and zinc miner's new boss.

Zinifex's acting chief executive, Tony Barnes, said yesterday that zinc prices might fall as more supply came from new mines and expansions.

"Lower zinc prices and higher Australian dollar-US dollar exchange rates will lower revenue," he said in a presentation to investors.

"Cost pressures persist - a similar rate of increase to financial year 2007 is expected."

Zinifex shares fell as low as $14.05 before rebounding to finish the day at $14.38.

Mr Barnes has been filling in as chief executive in addition to his regular duties as chief finance officer since the departure of former Zinifex boss Greig Gailey in June.

Zinifex expects to appoint its new chief executive by the end of the year, with former WMC Resources head Andrew Michelmore now considered the likely choice.

Former BHP executive Chris Lynch was rumoured to be frontrunner for the position until he accepted the top job at toll road operator Transurban last month.

Citigroup analyst Clarke Wilkins yesterday downgraded Zinifex's target share price to $15.20 from $18.50 and reduced his forecast for 2007-08 earnings per share to $1.72 from $2.50.

"Our estimates and target price for Zinifex have been mauled by a 29 per cent downgrade to our 2008 zinc price forecast to $US1.25 per pound from $US1.75 per pound previously," Mr Wilkins said in a note sent to investors.

Zinifex has previously been tipped as a potential merger partner for fellow Melbourne-based miner Oxiana, as well as a possible takeover target for Anglo-Swiss mining giant Xstrata.

The company pocketed some $1.6 billion from the sale of its smelting assets via the public listing of Nyrstar in Belgium last month.

Mr Wilkins also noted that Zinifex's bulging cash wallet of around $2.6 billion gave it "substantial options" to undertake its own M&A activity, fast-track projects or return capital to shareholders.

Zinifex reported a $1.3 billion net profit in 2006-07, up 24 per cent on the previous financial year on the back of higher zinc and lead prices.

I still believe that none of these little target share prices, and potential profit analysing by these "experts" - does not factor in all the potential that Zinifex's coffers could bring in. As the article mentioned - they could fast track current mines, acquire mines very close to production, or even in it; these sorts of ventures would bring in (potentially) non-zinc profits.

Heck, I believe this to be a 'stable' stock though - in the respect that...worst comes to worst, one could sell out next pre-dividend; & hopefully the holiday season will be good to the SP on top of that.

Target share price of 15.2? It was just at that 2-3 days ago! And if it plays nicely & participates in today's rally we surely won't be far off already.

 

[DionM]

I still believe that none of these little target share prices, and potential profit analysing by these "experts" - does not factor in all the potential that Zinifex's coffers could bring in. As the article mentioned - they could fast track current mines, acquire mines very close to production, or even in it; these sorts of ventures would bring in (potentially) non-zinc profits.

I wonder how the SP would be going if they hadn't done what they did to get that capital though (Nyrstar)? Double-edged sword.

But yes, it will be interesting to see what they do with it. Perhaps the market suspects a capital return hence the depressed share price? Personally I don't want more money, I am very happy for them to maintain their current dividends.

Heck, I believe this to be a 'stable' stock though - in the respect that...worst comes to worst, one could sell out next pre-dividend; & hopefully the holiday season will be good to the SP on top of that.

Well it is a miner who is producing, and according to recent investor info they have secured future sources of Zinc so it's not like they're going to run out of raw material any time soon. And don't forget Credit-Suisse buying in just recently as well.

Target share price of 15.2? It was just at that 2-3 days ago! And if it plays nicely & participates in today's rally we surely won't be far off already.

And it has been their "previous target" ($18.50) recently as well.

Still deciding whether to top up or not.

 

[roland]

The Drake presentation is just a re-hash of known projects - nothing new, but has put a blip of interest on the chart.

 

[leongu]

Today's Herald Sun

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22754890-664,00.html

Zinifex outlook remains cloudy
Felicity Williams
Zinifex has previously been tipped as a potential merger partner for fellow Melbourne-based miner Oxiana, as well as a possible takeover target for Anglo-Swiss mining giant Xstrata.



Credit-Suisse , Anglo-Swiss, UBS, are all from Switzerland , is there any trick behind that?

 

[overule]

Looking at that,

I don't think ZFX is able to go back to the SP the day before the dividend. Having said that, things might change quickly.

 

[rico01]

Looks like ZFX could be a takeover target with the share price up over 11%
and no announcement

Somethings up

 

[Rafa]

up 2 dollars now!!!
what is going on....

can't see any major news coming out... very strange... why didn't i buy yesterday after having my finger on the trigger all day. .

 

[rico01]

I just rang my broker and they said there is a very strong rumour that exstrata are taking a look at ZFX

 

[DionM]

All aboard the ZFX rollercoaster!

I knew I should have topped up.

Gift horse, mouth, all that kind of stuff.

Ah well ... at least I have some.

 

[legs]

I just rang my broker and they said there is a very strong rumour that exstrata are taking a look at ZFX

i knew i hung onto the for a reason.lol. go good thing...go! I got in during august slump at 15.80 so this will be a nice tidy profit!

 

[flinders]

:now the buy/sell about level and approx $150 million gone through ,perhaps no rumour! traders just want an exciting morning

 

[backslash]

Zinifex: Haven't Received Any Offer From Any Company
216 words
15 November 2007
11:35
Dow Jones International News
English
(c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australian zinc miner Zinifex Ltd. (ZFX.AU) said Thursday it hasn't received any takeover bids amid widespread market speculation that smaller rival Oxiana Ltd. (OXR.AU) is planning a bid that could value Zinifex at A$9.7 billion (US$8.7 billion).

"We haven't received any offer from any company," a Zinifex spokesman told Dow Jones Newswires.

At least six traders said there was speculation that Oxiana plans to offer four of its shares plus A$4 cash for each Zinifex share, which would value Zinifex around A$20 a share.

"I cannot say that we have any knowledge of that (rumor)," the Zinifex spokesman said.

An Oxiana spokeswoman said she was aware of the market speculation, but had no comment.

Oxiana boss Owen Hegarty said in a response to a question in July that he may be interested in acquiring Zinifex and saw synergies between the two groups.

 

[Ken]

I bought 500 shares at $14.29 because of the yield factor.

Now i have 10% returns + a paper profit.

But in reality ZFX is so volatile you never count your chickens. If this takeover rumour is squashed then ZFX is going to plummet again, and then i buy more.

There is some crazy buying going on.

If Rio Tinto is a takeover target. ZFX is the next best thing.

 

[Nicks]

Zinifex: Haven't Received Any Offer From Any Company
216 words
15 November 2007
11:35
Dow Jones International News
English
(c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australian zinc miner Zinifex Ltd. (ZFX.AU) said Thursday it hasn't received any takeover bids amid widespread market speculation that smaller rival Oxiana Ltd. (OXR.AU) is planning a bid that could value Zinifex at A$9.7 billion (US$8.7 billion).

"We haven't received any offer from any company," a Zinifex spokesman told Dow Jones Newswires.

At least six traders said there was speculation that Oxiana plans to offer four of its shares plus A$4 cash for each Zinifex share, which would value Zinifex around A$20 a share.

"I cannot say that we have any knowledge of that (rumor)," the Zinifex spokesman said.

An Oxiana spokeswoman said she was aware of the market speculation, but had no comment.

Oxiana boss Owen Hegarty said in a response to a question in July that he may be interested in acquiring Zinifex and saw synergies between the two groups.

Hmmm interesting. Sounds like the 'rumour' hasn't its origins at Zinifex, they are happy to comment. Maybe not from Xtrata... but Oxiana have a no comment.

I reckon it's on!