ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[uhu]

Well, more solid (+5%) gain is impossible in Monday - at least I in my opinion. See the Xstrata-Jub deal, what could lift (keep) share price for only a few days.
If ZFX would be an iron miner, probably, yes, but with zinc...no.

There is a chance (not too much) BHP won't able to buy RIO. So, as perhaps I wrote it earlier, BHP will "have to" buy a lot of midminers: Oxiana, Paladin ,Zinifex, Aluminia etc. In this way, ZFX share price can go back to the July maximum.

But, if I want to remain realistic, I think I have to wait until February. At his point, we will know the M&A plans.

 

[stargazer]

HI all

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 274.1 222.7 163.6 111.9
DPS 140.0 130.0 94.8 57.5

From these figures above the EPS is reducing to 2010 and DPS also why is this good?

Cheers
SG

 

[Nyden]

HI all



From these figures above the EPS is reducing to 2010 and DPS also why is this good?

Cheers
SG

Well, probably because it means even on current prospects they're still going to be making good money for a few years. But, does this factor in mines that aren't yet fully producing? Or producing at all? And it obviously doesn't factor in the potential profits from whatever they end up acquiring

Was just talking about this CEO issue last night;

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22741169-5005200,00.html

Font Size: Decrease Increase Print Page: Print Andrew Trounson | November 12, 2007
LEAD and zinc mining giant Zinifex is close to naming a new chief executive, with the board in talks with a final candidate, reportedly ex-WMC boss Andrew Michelmore.

Getting a new CEO in place is an increasingly urgent priority for Zinifex with consolidation in the global mining sector set to peak as the world's biggest miner, BHP Billiton, tries to convince rival Rio Tinto to agree to a $US360 billion ($394 billion) merger.

And Zinifex is an attractive cash box for a predator with $1.7 billion in proceeds from the float of its smelting assets as Brussels-based Nyrstar now sitting in its bank account.

Zinifex shares jumped 4.3 per cent to $15.45 a share on Friday as mining stocks were bid up on expectations of further takeovers.

The appointment of the ambitious Mr Michelmore would send a signal that Zinifex is determined to forge its own destiny rather than be a passive target, and Mr Michelmore would be expected to seek to use the Nystar proceeds to grow the company.

Before returning to Australia last month, Mr Michelmore was a senior executive at Basic Element, the holding company of Russia-based global aluminium giant Rusal, giving him a broad set of connections beyond his WMC days.

But whether Mr Michelmore, if he is appointed, will have much time to act is questionable. And he risks a serious bout of deja vu if as new CEO his immediate role is to conduct a bid defence.

Mr Michelmore was left with the job of trying to navigate an independent future for WMC when former boss Hugh Morgan spun off the alumina business as Alumina Ltd to stave off a takeover from Alcoa.

WMC instantly became the market's favourite takeover target, in 2005 BHP duly bought it for $9.2 billion after Mr Michelmore had headed a long-running defence against initial bidder Xstrata.

Indeed the perception that Zinifex is a target is believed to be why it has taken the board so long to find a replacement for Greig Gailey, who left in June is and now chairman of the Business Council of Australia.

An option for Zinifex is a long-tipped merger with fellow Australia mid-tier miner Oxiana, talks with which earlier in the year came to nothing.

Oxiana chief executive Owen Hegarty wants to aggressively grow Oxiana into a diversified miner, and had a good look at nickel miner Jubilee before Xstrata beat off competition from BHP with a $3.1 billion bid.

The Australian understands that Oxiana had about four months ago taken a serious look at emerging copper producer Equinox Minerals, which is aiming to start production next year at its Lumwanna copper project in Zambia.

Since then Equinox shares have soared up from about $3.40 in August to now be $5.84 a share, valuing it at $3.3 billion.

 

[stargazer]

Thanks Nyden

I was just getting a handle to understand why those figures were good and you explained it.

Cheers
SG

 

[overule]

ZFX keeps dropping. It seems that even RIO/BHP is not holding it up.

What do you guys think ?

I think it has dropped to its lowest level. This looks odd for ZFX

 

[vishalt]

I think ZFX has fallen out of favor from the stockmarket, I don't think institutions really like unhedged, single resource producers.

I think it'll turnaround when ZFX starts mining copper, but at this price ... OXR's mouth must start watering because its looking quite cheap.

The market is only focusing on Rio at the moment!

 

[uhu]

In this way, Zinifex will be a target. if share price will be around 12-13, an other player can pay +30-40% premium...

 

[overule]

I don't think the share price will go that low. ZFX is very volatile but strong demand for ZINC will be expected shortly.

 

[uhu]

There is a phrase but I am afraid I can't cite it exactly:
Speak the Prophet from you (if I translate tha arabs phrase to hungarian and after it to English...I hope you understand what I want to say.)

Ok, maybe 12-13 is too low (but who thought a few months ago if ZFX dropped to 15?).

But Zinifex can be a target...13 or 15 or 16 aud...it's the same for a big player.

 

[DionM]

ZFX is virtually at the same level it was at now during the August correction. I suspect there is a bit of support around this mark.

The pre-open at present looks promising too.

 

[Nyden]

ZFX is virtually at the same level it was at now during the August correction. I suspect there is a bit of support around this mark.

The pre-open at present looks promising too.

$13 doesn't seem too far from a possibility at this point!
How much further can this drop? Out of favor seems like a major understatement.
P/E ratio is 5.85 now

 

[DionM]

$13 doesn't seem too far from a possibility at this point!
How much further can this drop? Out of favor seems like a major understatement.
P/E ratio is 5.85 now

Ah ignore the first 30-60mins of trading, then you'll get a real picture of what the market thinks.

There is support around the $14 mark, based on the last 12mths chart. It would take a lot for it to drop.

I'm just wondering whether to top up or not, I bought in during August at these same prices. Mind you, that was with the lure of dividends (just paid), so not as good a value at this point in time.

 

[Nyden]

Ah ignore the first 30-60mins of trading, then you'll get a real picture of what the market thinks.

There is support around the $14 mark, based on the last 12mths chart. It would take a lot for it to drop.

I'm just wondering whether to top up or not, I bought in during August at these same prices. Mind you, that was with the lure of dividends (just paid), so not as good a value at this point in time.

Lately, I've found this not to be true.
Seems - at least with my stocks, when a stock has an awful open; it has an awful close. These aren't normal times we're in right now :

I don't expect it to drop any further really, today at least - but my gosh it's painful to watch.

 

[edvisor]

Zinc prices fell over 3.5% last night, hence the drop today.

anyone's guess how much further the market needs to fall to reflect fair value in a high interest environment.

good to know that ZFX has alot of cash in the bank ready to pounce on 'corrected' resource companies.

 

[overule]

I know this is frustrating for short term traders. How low can this go ? ZFX sure has let many investors with wide-open eyes.

 

[porkpie324]

It's anyones guess as to how low ZFX can go, all I no is that there in a downtrend on heavy volume. The quotes may look heavy on the buy side and low on the sell side, but there being sold off big time. porkpie

 

[Ken]

Would perila be a takeover target?

Is it fact that $1.40 is the divend? so rought looking at 10%


So basically you can margin loan this stock and hold for life effectively costing you nothing to hold.


Basically dividend covers interest on loan.


So in the end when ZFX gets taken over or grows your holding the stock for free.

 

[porkpie324]

Yep ZFX must qualify as a definant ASX 'DOG', so may well be worth a punt,The dividend is also well covered about twice if my memory seves me.
porkpie

 

[uhu]

I think we can forget the "supports", resistence levels" etc. Zinifex cuts its support level as (hungarian phrase) knife the butter.

Hm. But if things will go on in this way,miner can loose a lot until February. So, the Nyrstar money maybe in a very good place (I think in the bank...)

 

[DionM]

I think we can forget the "supports", resistence levels" etc. Zinifex cuts its support level as (hungarian phrase) knife the butter.

Hm. But if things will go on in this way,miner can loose a lot until February. So, the Nyrstar money maybe in a very good place (I think in the bank...)

I'm curious, why do you say it won't respect support levels (for my own learning more than anything).

It has tested the $14 area a couple of times of recently, including the August correction.