ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[Kauri]

Zinifix is searching to fill its top job as Greig Gailey decides to leave early from the company for personal reasons and the board has approved it.

It is be interesting to see who takes the top job and where he/she decides to take the company.


Any thoughts?

<LI class=pub-date>June 06, 2007 BHP Billiton top executive Chris Lynch will leave the world's biggest miner after missing out on the top job at the company, and could be eying the driving seat at zinc and lead miner Zinifex.

The group president of carbon steel materials steps down early in the new fiscal year, after Marius Kloppers was last week named BHP Billiton's new chief executive, replacing Chip Goodyear.
But market sources say Mr Lynch might already have his eye on the chief executive job at Melbourne-based Zinifex, ahead of Greig Gailey's departure later this year.

 

[hypnotic]

Thanks Kauri for the info,

Sounds like all the dates will coincide.

ZFX up strongly at 2.86% so far.

Hypnotic

 

[vishalt]

surging past its all-time high, as long as zinc prices remain this high zinifex won't stop in my opinion, and with the revenue they're going to raise from listing Umicore is gonna make it all the more sweeter.

 

[Kauri]

Am now using a Moving average as a stop... for no other reason than I am moving house(I hope ) and will not be able to follow it as closely as I should.
Cheers
Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Well, the last of my open trades is now closed, ZFX has taken out my Moving average stop at $18.55.... ....
.........Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[dubiousinfo]

What does Merrill Lynch have against ZFX ?

From The Australian on 2/7/07

Zinifex
Merrill Lynch
Sell: ($15.50 to $17.50 range pre-asset sale)

USING comparisons with other miners, notably Canadian lead-zinc play Hudbay, Merrill Lynch has come up with a valuation of the Zinifex mining business worth between $9.50 and $10.50 a share while its smelting assets are worth between $6 and $7 a share. Zinifex is poised to join forces with Belgian materials company Umicore to create pure zinc play Nystar but, instead of retaining a 60 per cent stake in the company, will sell its interest. That will see Zinifex retain its Australian mining assets as well as exploration projects, including Dugald River. "Given that we see little zinc price upside and so no share price upside, we retain our sell recommendation," Merrill Lynch analyst Mike Harrowell told clients

Lets not forget their famous advise from this time last year when ZFX was at $9.91

Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Sell, High Risk - The broker, a prominent ZFX-basher, notes quarterly sales were particularly good and it has lifted NPV from $7.65 to $8.15. However, the analysts continue to maintain these zinc prices won''t last more than a year, and that ZFX is a sell down to $6.00.

They just keep digging the hole deeper for themselves.

 

[questionall_42]

Oxiana acquiring Zinifex - this could prove an interesting development... ... OXR's growth profile mixed with ZFX's cash producing assets... ...

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--5th July

Australian copper and gold miner Oxiana Ltd. (OXR.AU) is interested in acquiring zinc miner Zinifex Ltd. (ZFX.AU), the Australian Financial Review reports Thursday.

Oxiana managing director Owen Hegarty told the newspaper there would be synergies in a marriage between the two companies after the Melbourne-based miner sold its smelting assets.

Shareholders in Zinifex will vote on a proposal to spin off the company's zinc-smelting assets, which will be combined with those of Umicore SA (UNI.BT) this month.

The tie-up of Oxiana and Zinifex, both of which are seen as takeover targets by foreign companies such as Xstrata PLC (XTA.LN) and Teck Cominco (TCK), would combine Oxiana's growth portfolio and the strong earnings from Zinifex' Century and Rosebery mines, the AFR says.

 

[RM8]

I wonder how many ZFX shares Merill Lynch has been accumulating during this period?

I'll bet something special it's been more than zero! :

 

[Spaghetti]

Here is another price target

ZinifexLtd - Rosebery Resource Upgrade

Exploration success has increased the Rosebery resource by 65% to 11.7mt and reserve by 44% to 3.8mt. The increase in resource life to ~16 years is a good start to extending mine life to the targeted 2020+ as it comes only 1 year into the 3 year drilling program.

Post the smelter spin-off, the major strategic issue confronting Zinifex is short reserve lives of ~5 years at Rosebery and ~8 years at Century. Citi Investment Research (CIR) believe this is being addressed through a multi pronged strategy of life extension at existing mines through exploration, farm-in agreements with Juniors and purchase of Wolfden Resources for advanced stage projects.

CIR remain bullish on zinc with a price forecast for FY08 of US$2/lb driven by China reverting to being a net importer and a market that is expected to remain in deficit for the next 3 years.

Zinifex is CIR’s preferred base metal exposure driven by zinc leverage, dividend yield, re-rating upside from the smelter spin-off and potential further mine life extensions from exploration. CIR maintain a Buy (1H) recommendation and A$20/share target price.

http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoli...62CF-4017-AFFD-1A8BD2B1A1E3}&Section=Warrants

 

[Love Zn]

I wonder how many ZFX shares Merill Lynch has been accumulating during this period?

I'll bet something special it's been more than zero! :

Maybe I should contact them and offer to buy their shares at $16-$17 then and sell at todays share price :

Sounds interesting about Oxiana, but I would have thought after the smelter spin off, Zinifex will be cashed up looking for targets, rather than themselves being taken over.

 

[Spaghetti]

Zinifex share price is up 4% today after all the juicy gains last week. Is anything going to stop it?

 

[ozambersand]

$1.10 increase sure is nice.

I am not too sure about the significance of this, but at 16:13 there were 1,000,000 shares traded in a XTSPOS trade @ $21.162.

XT and OS show it was an overseas cross trade SP= Block Special Crossing in an Equity Security/Warrant or Special Crossing in an interest rate security

So it may have just been new warrants issued?

Whoever it was, whatever it was they could have got them a lot cheaper on Friday.

 

[michael_selway]

Zinifex share price is up 4% today after all the juicy gains last week. Is anything going to stop it?

This might sound strange, evenat current prices PE is only 7, BHP is 13!

Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 219.9 278.9 234.6 175.8
DPS 80.0 140.0 128.0 83.6

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 278.9 7.2 26.8%
Year Ending 30-06-08 234.6 8.6 -15.9%

thx

MS

 

[ozambersand]

I subscribe to FNArena now, so can give this insight into what brokers are saying:

Credit Suisse brokers have changed its classification to Outperform:

Target $22.50 (was $19.72). Higher commodity price forecasts have seen the broker lift its earnings estimates for the company by 2.6% in FY07 and 4.4% in FY08. This drives the increase in the broker's target price.

This doesn't take into account exchange rate changes and takeover speculation.

Deutsche Bank has taken that into account and says:

An increase in longer dated commodity price forecasts, offset somewhat by the A$, has led to a target increase from $14.89 to $18.12.

Perilya and Oxiana also have pretty low P/E ratios.

Currently the average target price for Zinifex from 9 brokers is $16.94. Mind you some of them haven't changed their rating of it since December last year!

Having bought in at $16.60 in February, torn my hair out when it went below $15, sold most of them when it first went back above $18 - it's been a real roller coaster ride.

The share price will be a nice thank you present for Greg Gailey anyway!

 

[ozambersand]

Further to the above post, JP Morgan has just upgraded its target price for Zinifex to ..... $11.00!

Before then it had been consistently posting Sell, Underweight recommendations and target prices for Zinifex in the low $8 - 10 region.

Its investment fund arm obviously listened.

JP Morgan Natural Resources top ten holdings back in August 2006 (according to http://www.moneyweek.com/file/16550/fund-of-the-week-the-manager-who-spots-what-others-miss.htmlwere:

Name of holding % of assets

First Quantum Minerals........ 2.60
XSTRATA.......................... 2.40
Bema Gold ........................ 1.90
Zinifex ............................. 1.70
Teck Cominco ................... 1.60
First Calgary Petroleums ..... 1.40
BHP Billiton ..................... 1.40
Fortescue Metals Group....... 1.30
Rio Tinto ........... ......... 1.30
Lundin Mining .......... ...... 1.20

As at 30/4/07 they were:

TOP 10 HOLDINGS
SXR Uranium One ..........2.60%
Fortescue Metals ..........2.40%
BHP Billiton ..................2.20%
First Quantum Minerals ..1.80%
Kinross Gold .................1.80%
Yamana Gold ................1.80%
CVRD ..........................1.80%
Xstrata .......................1.70%
Lundin Mining ...............1.50%
Barrick Gold ..................1.50%
Total % Holdings .........19.10%

Maybe they sold Zinifex back in 2006 for $10 and are not happy about it!

 

[chops_a_must]

Finally got back in to this yesterday. And kind of good timing too. Nice, technically safe entry after a confirmed breakout, on the retrace.

Sentiment definitely returning to some base metal stocks, and especially zincers. ZFX has performed well on down days in zinc, and remained strong despite the AUD. All good signs. Would be hoping for a price (and this is my target) somewhere between 24.50 and 26 in the coming months.

This has been an absolute dolly for a long termer like I have said previously. Should have kept my profit in shares from the previous trades. Oh well, you learn for next time.

Got my mum into these at about $15 on the sideways move. So she is laughing. Lets hope I can use my brownie points for a good trade on these.

Cheers,
Chops.

P.S. and well done to all those people patient enough to buy in during that sideways move and wait it out. I admire that. Couldn't do it myself.

 

[vishalt]

Poor performance lately.

UBS rated to stock $22 but says the recent run was too fast/too hard (but thats typical Zinifex lol).

I'm just looking to accumulate more.

 

[eMark]

Any comments from the pro's re Zinifex today? Quarterly report wasn't bad. Zinc stockpiles continue to fall. Takeover speculation has died down? The stock today appears to have bounced back nicely from a low of $18.80, looks pretty comfortable in the mid $19 range. Still $2.50 down from it's high, but that's to be expected (mostly die to t/o hype). That's my

 

[vishalt]

its dropping along with everything else in the market.

zinifex is a "likely" takeover target AFTER the spinning off the assetts with nyrstar

 

[chops_a_must]

its dropping along with everything else in the market.

zinifex is a "likely" takeover target AFTER the spinning off the assetts with nyrstar

I agree.

Especially after they return the money raised to shareholders. Not having to pay up for the value of the smelters makes it look even more attractive right now, in my eyes. Even without a takeover offer, without the smelters it looks good as well, as the money needed for them to be improved and the areas rehabilitated over the coming years wont have to be paid by ZFX.