ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[Kauri]

Hi Reece,
Well done getting on at the start of this run, it's looking pretty good.
My trade was two trades, a shorter term trade which I collected on for about 2R on the 7th, the other trade is longer term to catch (hopefully) most of this impulse. It looks to me that she may find a top for this minor wave between the resistances at $18 and $19.. before correcting into a W2?? My trade will stay on through this move if it eventuates, and I will endeavour to pyramid in with another trade if and when the W3 gets under way, ditto for W4 and W5 if they follow.
Cheers
Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Hi Reece,
Well done getting on at the start of this run, it's looking pretty good.
My trade was two trades, a shorter term trade which I collected on for about 2R on the 7th, the other trade is longer term to catch (hopefully) most of this impulse. It looks to me that she may find a top for this minor wave between the resistances at $18 and $19.. before correcting into a W2?? My trade will stay on through this move if it eventuates, and I will endeavour to pyramid in with another trade if and when the W3 gets under way, ditto for W4 and W5 if they follow.
Cheers
Kauri

Looking promising ?? for end of W2 ??.. now to see if she fractals into an intermediate W3??? Either that or the ABC is not complete and we have a ways to fall yet..

 

[hypnotic]

hopefully your right Kauri,

Based on the increase in zinc spot price and base metal price this weekend and the potential for further increase we should see Zinifix go up on Monday.
Today Zinc spot price jumped back 5% so far and the levels of LME zinc stock pile is decreasing back to the 75000t and dropping further. Judging by the response of zinc price on the last decrease back in Oct 06 sometime to 50000t we can hopefully expect the zinc price to rise back to $1.8 or even US$2 per lb. currently US$1.6722/lb (Kitco)

Of coz nothing is certain, but there is definitely going to be good rise on zinc spot price without any increase in stock pile.

Hypnotic

 

[Kauri]

and the support line (channel) paralelled from the W(1)-W(3) highs would suggest that the W(4) is in, is this touch going to rebound with a little volume bubble like the previous two???

 

[michael_selway]

and the support line (channel) paralelled from the W(1)-W(3) highs would suggest that the W(4) is in, is this touch going to rebound with a little volume bubble like the previous two???

Hi are is that bullish or bearish on ZFX technically in the ST or MT?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 219.9 278.9 234.7 175.8
DPS 80.0 141.5 120.7 78.8

 

[Kauri]

Have refrained from pyramiding onto ZFX as the stop at W2 doesn't give me a good RR, and the stop if set at W2 (??) for a better although riskier RR doesn't seem right (gut feeling??). Also the vol, altthough having a spike on the exhaustion 5 days ago, hasn't really gone on with it.. I'll let it develop and maybe a better opportunity will present??

 

[Jay-684]

finally exited out of this this morning after first buying @ $3.30

dont know if I'll ever get back in, but we'll see, I said that the last time I sold for $16.80, then bought back in @ 10.80 a few months later!

 

[toothfairy]

finally exited out of this this morning after first buying @ $3.30

dont know if I'll ever get back in, but we'll see, I said that the last time I sold for $16.80, then bought back in @ 10.80 a few months later!

When did you sell @ $16.8 and when did you buy back a few months later @ $10.8. Are you sure that was not the other way round?

 

[Jay-684]

When did you sell @ $16.8 and when did you buy back a few months later @ $10.8. Are you sure that was not the other way round?

My bad, whenI quoted those prices I didnt have it all infront of me!

03/03/2005 - Bought 1000 @ 3.30
19/05/2006 - Sold 1000 @ 10.90
13/09/2006 - Bought 1000 @ 10.80
09/01/2007 - Sold 1000 @ 17.03
05/02/2007 - Bought 1000 @ 16.03
31/05/2007 - Sold 1000 @ 17.59

Total profit - 458%

 

[Kimosabi]

Positive!

03/03/2005 - Bought 1000 @ 3.30
19/05/2006 - Sold 1000 @ 10.90
13/09/2006 - Bought 1000 @ 10.80
09/01/207 - Sold 1000 @ 17.03
05/02/2007 - Bought 1000 @ 16.03
31/05/2007 - Sold 1000 @ 17.59

Total profit - 458%

I would have kept the ones you bought at $3.30, you'd be sitting on $1540 worth of dividends, and halfway to paying off your initial capital outlay plus sitting on a 5 bagger.

Two more dividend payments and you'd be free carried by dividend payments

How ofter does that happen now-a-days

Dividend Payments

18/11/2005 - $40
26/04/2006 - $100
10/11/2006 - $700
20/04/2007 - $700
.................$1540

Nicely done anyway...

 

[Jay-684]

I would have kept the ones you bought at $3.30, you'd be sitting on $1540 worth of dividends, and halfway to paying off your initial capital outlay plus sitting on a 5 bagger.

Two more dividend payments and you'd be free carried by dividend payments

How ofter does that happen now-a-days

Dividend Payments

18/11/2005 - $40
26/04/2006 - $100
10/11/2006 - $700
20/04/2007 - $700
.................$1540

Nicely done anyway...

I did receive the last 2 dividend payments ($700ea), cant remember about the first two, mind you they are small in comparison.

My only reason for selling is not because I dont believe ZFX will rise more, but purely because I wanted to lock in some profits as I will be purchasing a property in the next 12 months. That and ZFX usually fares poorly in a correction... not that I'm predicting one!

I'm sure it'll jump to $20 now

 

[toothfairy]

My bad, whenI quoted those prices I didnt have it all infront of me!

03/03/2005 - Bought 1000 @ 3.30
19/05/2006 - Sold 1000 @ 10.90
13/09/2006 - Bought 1000 @ 10.80
09/01/2007 - Sold 1000 @ 17.03
05/02/2007 - Bought 1000 @ 16.03
31/05/2007 - Sold 1000 @ 17.59

Total profit - 458%

Congrats, very well done, I hope you stick around this thread and give us some tips in the future .Too many people here wave around with ideas that are academic but not profitable.
BTW, do you think properties are not risky now?

Cheers.

 

[Love Zn]

I struggle to understand how ZFX opens up well, breaks over the $18 again, has the usual dip around lunch time, comes back up, but then within 1/2 hour of closing it dips down to the previous closing. While at the same time KZL is going up in the last 1/2 hour. So it can't be Zn price related.

Makes for interesting options trading

 

[Kauri]

Seems to be showing some strength again so far today in the face of Zinc price and general market adversity, albeit not on large volume, just might be a cuppa there... must be Ginseng....

 

[Love Zn]

Kauri what would you put the next resistance line at, if this does become a nice lipton?

It appears from today's trading that $18 was becoming a support.

 

[Kauri]

Well ZFX by my calculations is now in an area price (and time-wise. ) where a correction may occur. Although I don't give much credence to rumours unless I start them myself a whisper that has been quietly circulating around the traps for a whiles now is that there may be some consolidation due in the Zinc sector, may go some ways towards explaining the resilence of ZFX???

 

[Col Lector]

GiddayKauri,
Barron's have an article this week focussing on expected Zinc industry consolidation...unfortunately I am not a subscriber.
Re ZFX resilience...apart from being a play on further appreciation in POZ..it can be attributed to the strong dividend growth and those forecast for 2007 of $1.22 (i+final).
The AFR (June 9-10 page44)ranks ZFX first on the basis of fastest growth in dividends since 2005 (at 212%). 2005 4c; 2006 80c; 2007F 122c.
Additional to this, the restructure of ZFX is expected to bring a cash windfall, and some are predicting this could result in the payment of a significant special dividend beyond those forecast.
A couple of good reason's to hold IMO, beyond the positives for SP that could come with Zinc Industry consolidation.

Have a look at PEM's presentation (released today). It gives a good perspective of ZFX valuation relative to other zinc producers.

 

[Kauri]

Have moved my long-term stop up closer to the action as I think the intermediate W1 may be in.. if the count is correct that is...

 

[Kauri]

May 31..Have refrained from pyramiding onto ZFX as the stop at W2 doesn't give me a good RR, and the stop if set at W2 (??) for a better although riskier RR doesn't seem right (gut feeling??). Also the vol, altthough having a spike on the exhaustion 5 days ago, hasn't really gone on with it.. I'll let it develop and maybe a better opportunity will present??

Well the gut feeling turned out to be indigestion from bad prawns...looking possibly for the max W5 area??? Has managed to take out the Dec high, which also rounds off the cup posted a few posts back. Must be something in the rumour mill as POZ hasn't tarnished her performance...yet!!!

 

[hypnotic]

Zinifix is searching to fill its top job as Greig Gailey decides to leave early from the company for personal reasons and the board has approved it.

It is be interesting to see who takes the top job and where he/she decides to take the company.

Although Zinc prices have fallen overnight, the zinc prices have been creeping up highwe over the last 4 months since the low in Feb. The zinc stock in the LME is continuing to decrease albeit the little rebound in the last week. Looks like the forecast for strong demand of Zinc to come in the next 10 years as the BRIC countries continue to develop.

Would this be the reason for the rise lately? Maybe some kind of increase in demand of zinc?

Well looking from a daily graph from May looks like it did form a small cup and handle. The projected price would be around 19.80. Also it is encouraging to see the MACD crossing 2 weeks ago and broken through its all time high.
Very positive signs. Volume looks average though. Technically i am prediciting ZFX to head towards the $20 mark and probably consildates there with slight pull back.

Any thoughts?