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ZFX - Zinifex Limited

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Hope your right, as I sold my ZFX holdings about a week ago with the intent of re-entering at $12-14, hopefully the lower but just a case of waiting and seeing what the market delivers.

thanx
 
wavepicker said:
Would imagine this should find support at approx $15 plus or minus 50c to thereafter mount a reasonable countertrend whereby another short position maybe on the cards.

This short trade was great they don't come much easier than this

Cheers
Click to expand...

Hi did you close out your short trade?

thx

MS
 
Hi everyone, techies & fundamentalists included, I don't think many of U would have predicted the ZFX SP movement today. Up from the bell rang.
Techies & wavepickers (not aiming at someone with the same name) predict support @ $15 or worse, fundamentalists suddenly telling us China is actually exporting heaps of Zn instead of the reverse, & the obvious big slide in Zn prices.
Is this just a knee-jerk reaction, can some wise guy explain because I did sell most above $18 and am waiting to buy back.

Cheers
 

Personally I think today was a reaction to the rest of the market and metals.
 
swingstar said:
Personally I think today was a reaction to the rest of the market and metals.
Click to expand...
Does not compute!
Metals - especially zinc - were weak overnight.
The market was strong and this followed through to ZFX which was being picked up on a speculative rebound.
The unwinding of zinc's fundamental strength can persist through January before any pickup on consumer demand.
China seems determined for now to send excess zinc output to Singapore, and the question that remains unanswered for now is if this is an ongoing trend or not.
The copper conundrum tonight looks interesting for the first time this year, with a massive drawdown of inventory - from CHINA!!!
Irrespective of the technicals, the base metal market as a whole, from a medium term perspective, remains firm with very short-supply of inventory should any sector (apart from aluminium) have a major disruption (eg a Glasberg-type event).
So while zinc has experienced its biggest correction in recent history, significant longer term downside does not seem imminent.
But then again, crazier things have happened.
 
rederob said:
Does not compute!
Metals - especially zinc - were weak overnight.
Click to expand...

They (except zinc) were at least up for once compared to the previous few weeks.

The market was strong and this followed through to ZFX which was being picked up on a speculative rebound.
Click to expand...

That's what I said, or meant.

It's just an idea on today's action... Who knows, it could be the start of another bull trend for all I or anyone knows. Too early to say yet though.
 
swingstar said:
Who knows, it could be the start of another bull trend for all I or anyone knows. Too early to say yet though.
Click to expand...
Not immediately I don't think:

Zinc January 09,06:04
Bid/Ask 1.6707 - 1.6798
Change -0.0340 -2.00%
Low/High 1.6685 - 1.7252

Zinc 94075 +3100
 
chops_a_must said:
Not immediately I don't think:

Zinc January 09,06:04
Bid/Ask 1.6707 - 1.6798
Change -0.0340 -2.00%
Low/High 1.6685 - 1.7252

Zinc 94075 +3100
Click to expand...

Zinc price had little effect today though. I'm bearish short-term still.
 
michael_selway said:
Hi did you close out your short trade?

thx

MS
Click to expand...

Michael, closed it out 2 days ago. Was a put option and like to sell in th heat of the moment. There was a lot more in it after I sold it but bad luck. Too be honest it fell faster than I originally thought as I expected to be in the trade somewhat longer, like a month. Time to move on and find something else.

Cheers
 
Wavepicker....

I too held a long put option, but closed out today when options came online.......

Sweet money made here, doubled my money in about 8 trading days....... My only regret is that I balanced the trade out by selling another put 2 strikes below the purchased put for some security.....

Still bearish in the short term, the recovery was strong today, but the like I say the market was due to come back.......
 

Hi reece. I got in 1 off the peak , but made 250% 2 days ago which is great for a weeks work and I am happy. I always say, that if we do our job properly then the market will do the rest of the work for us.

I think there is more in this but having said that, there maybe another retest of highs by XAO which I didn't think would be the case a few days ago or even a marginal high. If so ZFX might mount a decent rally and offer another opportunity later. It is a difficult one to trade however due to the volatility.

Cheers
 
There goes yesterday's gains... I wonder if the selling will continue. The break below Monday's low looks bearish, as I thought it may have been a false break.
 
Today was a very bearish signal IMO, taking out Monday's low... I think it'd take a decent rise in the US or metals to lift it tomorrow. Just the way I see it...

Could be wrong of course... (see OXR thread to see me spectacularly wrong).
 
swingstar said:
Today was a very bearish signal IMO, taking out Monday's low... I think it'd take a decent rise in the US or metals to lift it tomorrow. Just the way I see it...

Could be wrong of course... (see OXR thread to see me spectacularly wrong).
Click to expand...
It didn't head much lower after the gap down on the opening. I think it is going to take a fair drop in zinc prices to get it under $16. But if it does, all hell could break loose.
 
chops_a_must said:
It didn't head much lower after the gap down on the opening.
Click to expand...

True, but I thought if yesterday was meaningful at all, buyers would have been in today at even lower prices. I think we'll see more downside before any end to this trend.
 
Swingstar
Agree with you here - today was extremely bearish and I didn't expect the stock to take out yesterdays lows. Tomorrow will be interesting here, if 16.00 is broken, then I think the next support level is about $14.00. Not saying that we will necessarily reach that level because most technical indicators point to the stock being oversold and therefore I would suspect it to rally.

Wavepicker, agree with you in saying that ZFX is a very hard stock to trade - the first long put trade was relatively easy for me to pick (albeit I got in a little early, my hat off to you because you really picked it brilliantly), but I think the next will be harder to pick. Plus the IV on any option for ZFX, be it put or call, is extreme now due to the volatility. Probably be better going for a CFD trade here for the next setup. Do you still feel we will rally back to the resistance before another heavy move down? Or did todays movement change your view?

Cheers
Reece
 
Reece

I hold ZFX.

Are you saying that the technical indicators that you are aware of point to $16.00 being oversold? You suspect a rally? (I mean anything can happen, and has already with this stock). Just clarifying that I have understood what you have said.

Also some index reweighting seems to be continuing

Zinc January 10,06:02
Bid/Ask 1.6261 - 1.6397
Change -0.0181 -1.10%
Low/High 1.6238 - 1.6964

Could this drive the stock lower? I recall Tuesday Zinc was down 5% yet still had a rally, although at that time it still appeared bullish.
 
eMark
Honestly, I have no idea where the stock will go tomorrow - the last couple of days have been interesting. As I say, key support here is about $16.00, a break of this would not be good. However, all in all, if I had to make a call I would say it will rally - it has really been a sharp sell off.

Personally, from a both a technical and fundamental perspective, I wouldn't be long here now - you can't see zinc getting any better in the long run and the chart now reads a sea of red. The strong up-trend channel that has been in place since September that saw prices go from the 11 mark to 19 appears well and truly broken - many people disagreed with me when the price was $19 in early Jan, but curiously most haven't posted on this thread since!

Cheers
Reece
 
Hi Reece

Well, that proved to be an encouraging if not somewhat subdued day for ZFX. Even though Zinc was up 5% overnight, buyers are a little sheepish and haven't forgotten what has transpired in the last few days (with good reason).

Closed at 16.49, above Wednesdays close. I was getting ready for a sharp retractment towards the close; which looked like happening, but ended up closing off it's lows. Can anyone tell me the buyers vs sellers scenraio for today? Which the stronger?

I hope last night's metals rise was not a "dead cat bounce", and possibly a bottom? It took me by surprise.

eMark

 
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