ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[rederob]

The strong up-trend channel that has been in place since September that saw prices go from the 11 mark to 19 appears well and truly broken - many people disagreed with me when the price was $19 in early Jan, but curiously most haven't posted on this thread since!
Cheers
Reece

I am reasonably confident $19 will be breached within the quarter as present action is pretty much the same as the sharp selloff in May.
Except at that stage there were shiploads of zinc avaialble.
Only Chinese restocking at LME Singapore will defer the rebound.
While drawdowns have been light, that is a function of backwardation and consumers will try to hold out as long as possible for cheaper prices to be achieved.
Just remember that about 18 months ago a single delivery of zinc to LME was greater than total present warranted stock, so any stock rebuilds will need to be exceptionally strong to turn around zinc's fundamental tone.

 

[michael_selway]

I am reasonably confident $19 will be breached within the quarter as present action is pretty much the same as the sharp selloff in May.
Except at that stage there were shiploads of zinc avaialble.
Only Chinese restocking at LME Singapore will defer the rebound.
While drawdowns have been light, that is a function of backwardation and consumers will try to hold out as long as possible for cheaper prices to be achieved.
Just remember that about 18 months ago a single delivery of zinc to LME was greater than total present warranted stock, so any stock rebuilds will need to be exceptionally strong to turn around zinc's fundamental tone.

I agree, the additions are "insignifcant" at this stage

Have to look at the broader picture as well

thx

MS

 

[chops_a_must]

I am reasonably confident $19 will be breached within the quarter as present action is pretty much the same as the sharp selloff in May.

It already has been breached, on the 3rd.

My prediction is still looking good. It really needs to test $16 though. There is a lot of money sitting on the side lines for this one. Lots of mums and dads watching it on the news. And depending on how it reacts to the $16 mark, and my guess is that it wont dive further given zinc has bounced off its support between $3,750 and $3,500, we should see some strong buying.

 

[rederob]

It already has been breached, on the 3rd.

Oh well, let's make it $20 this quarter.

 

[chops_a_must]

Oh well, let's make it $20 this quarter.

Lol! At least no-one could have accused you of having an unjustified price target on it!

 

[eMark]

Hey chops

When you say "test $16.00", do you feel it needs to go back there a few more times before moving forward? As it's been back to $16 a couple of times this week already.

eMark

It already has been breached, on the 3rd.

My prediction is still looking good. It really needs to test $16 though. There is a lot of money sitting on the side lines for this one. Lots of mums and dads watching it on the news. And depending on how it reacts to the $16 mark, and my guess is that it wont dive further given zinc has bounced off its support between $3,750 and $3,500, we should see some strong buying.

 

[michael_selway]

Oh well, let's make it $20 this quarter.

I concur

btw what do u think of lead, it apear sto be holding very well above 70c/lb, record highs

thx

MS

 

[chops_a_must]

Hey chops

When you say "test $16.00", do you feel it needs to go back there a few more times before moving forward? As it's been back to $16 a couple of times this week already.

eMark

As far as I'm aware the lowest it got was into the $16.10s. Which isn't a serious attack at the support level. I would really like to see it bouce off before I commit any money to it.

 

[silence]

I topped up at $16.40 last week with a close stop loss, assuming it was just bouncing off the approximate support at that level. Seems to have paid off, I've just got to not make the mistake I made last year of putting too much in that 'definite winner'...which turns out not to be.

 

[rederob]

I concur

btw what do u think of lead, it apear sto be holding very well above 70c/lb, record highs

thx

MS

I think both zinc and lead are likely to get tighter, and more record highs are therefore probable.
At the broader economic level there is still nothing to suggest either of these metal are going to suffer the fate of copper, near to medium term.

 

[michael_selway]

I think both zinc and lead are likely to get tighter, and more record highs are therefore probable.
At the broader economic level there is still nothing to suggest either of these metal are going to suffer the fate of copper, near to medium term.

Zinc, Lead, & Nickel

In what order do you think more further upside potential at current prices?

thx

MS

 

[rederob]

Zinc, Lead, & Nickel

In what order do you think more further upside potential at current prices?

thx

MS

MS
In percentage terms lead will probably win.
But unless you are trading the metal, you need to choose an equity as its proxy. ZFX is a pretty good one to be on!
I see zinc having more percentage upside this year than nickel, but I equally think my preferred nickel "equity" - MRE - could match or better the performance of zinc equities simply because it continues to be marked down by most market players.
As you know, KZL and ZFX have had massive runs on zinc's rise and I suspect into 2007 punters may be a little more cautious until a "bull" sign re-appears.

 

[chops_a_must]

Could we see ZFX at below $16 today? Zinc down nearly 4% and most importantly:

Zinc 100325 +5725

 

[Halba]

nup. ZFX has nearly 25% of its mkt cap in cash. absolutely no downside risk

Simple calcs:

300-400mil in cash at bank

1.7bil profit

current mc = 8bil

= 25%

Add spinoff proceeds of about 1-2billion, say 1billion

thats 38% of its mkt cap in theoretical cash. mkt has factored in lower zinc prices.

 

[PhoenixXx]

... absolutely no downside risk ...

So IF it really dropped below $16, would it be worthed to buy more? thx

 

[chops_a_must]

Does anyone know if the Port Pirie smelter has been put out of action?

 

[eMark]

Does anyone know how much the daily price of LEAD plays in influencing Zinifex's share price?

 

[chops_a_must]

ZFX may well have begun to turn:

 

[MiningGuru]

I agree. I think that the chart shows that ZFX is now turning up and that it should push up beyong its previous highs.

Time to get on again at the start of a new run!

 

[chops_a_must]

I agree. I think that the chart shows that ZFX is now turning up and that it should push up beyong its previous highs.

Time to get on again at the start of a new run!

If it clears 17.80, then that will mean it has gone above 10% of its recent lows and a higher probability of a turn around. Should be fun to see what happens.