ZFX - Zinifex Limited
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Read the posts in January and February.machi said:
I, too, can call a "top" within a month of it happening.
As for going into hibernation - well, I actually transferred considerable sums into zinc and uranium equities after gold topped, although I still hold about 20k LHG shares plius a few other smaller gold equities that continue to do ok.
Anyway, if the techies were so good in April and May, why were they sitting on their hands early in the year?
So, just to allow you (and ducati) to call me whatever names, I am forecasting much higher silver, gold and zinc prices this year (2007) than last year.
rederob said:
Well your projections for a top in Gold were out by a country mile. The peak did not come in Jan or Feb, it came in May and chartists on that thread were calling for a top in late April. Not bad.
If my memory serves me correctly you were calling for $800 US for Gold by December 2006. Instead Gold was $629 at Dec 2006. You got it wrong Rederob, badly. just admit it. There is no shame in it, everyone who is involved in markets gets it wrong. This is the hardest game to play and even the best money managers get it wrong.
As for zinc rising this year, I don’t know, but if your Gold call is any indication you should go into hibernation from this thread as well within a few months as well.
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Machimachi said:
You clearly did not read the thread from when I began posting on gold.
If you had, and had also taken a position on gold/equities you would have done very well.
I also never suggested gold would top in 2006 - far from it.
But I certainly was "in" very early and was being attacked from all quarters.
Yet gold rose another $200. And it will likely do the same this year - my $850 is still on the line!
Please don't waste time in this thread, on ZFX, where I have posted views before the event which have since come to fruition.
Why don't you "put it on the line" with some numbers and dates for ZFX.
I will propose $23 before May 2007.
Kauri
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Well, interesting day for ZFX - as I previously predicted, a major correction today on high volume. Still maintain my view that we will see the $16 barrier before the end of Jan. Certainly a stock to watch in the comming week.
Quite amusing that we have had no additional post today on ZFX however - yesterday we had predictions of $23 before May! I think the picture is certainly clear after today - the smart money is moving out of this stock.
Cheers
Reece
Quite amusing that we have had no additional post today on ZFX however - yesterday we had predictions of $23 before May! I think the picture is certainly clear after today - the smart money is moving out of this stock.
Cheers
Reece
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Volume was pretty average, although high compared to the previous five days.
I'm not too worried, I'm still bullish mid-term. If the peak on Tuesday was the end of wave 3, then we're probably in for a complex (sideways) correction. How long... Probably a week or two, going by wave 2 of the same degree's range. Then, for the count (and what appears to be the same of a few EW analysts in this thread) to be validated, we should see another decent move upwards.
I'm not too worried, I'm still bullish mid-term. If the peak on Tuesday was the end of wave 3, then we're probably in for a complex (sideways) correction. How long... Probably a week or two, going by wave 2 of the same degree's range. Then, for the count (and what appears to be the same of a few EW analysts in this thread) to be validated, we should see another decent move upwards.
michael_selway
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reece55 said:
You dotn understand the fundamentals, its still tight the zinc market. It can onyl fall so much, plsu its not overvalued in any way using current PE & fwd PE
Might be "smart money" moving into the stock soon?
thx
MS
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I added another 1000 ZFX just before market close: Prefer to buy on retraces greater than 5% in a tight market - having regarded $17.60 as a reasonable risk with a probability of the previous $19 high being reclaimed (even a further decline occurs from here {I see downside as low as $15.50 - but not a high probability}).reece55 said:
Given that "before" May equals almost 4 months, and the previous 4 months to date added some $9.50 from low to high, then $23 is not a particularly tall order.
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Michael
I think I do understand this stock - people might misunderstand me when I say the stock will move to $16.00. This is not because I think the price of zinc will halve tomorrow - clearly there isn't enough supply to move prices this way. But todays close is a clear bear sign - high volume (although admittedly not as high as we have seen on some days) and a close on low for the day. We have also broken the holding pattern the stock that has been in place since December.
Michael, whilst you say that the stock doesn't have a high PE, this is a little misleading. Just remember 2 years ago when ZFX was a $2.00 stock, it had a PE of 6. Today, ZFX still has a PE of around 5.5. What has changed - well, IMO the risk. The zinc price certainly looks to have stalled. Now I am not suggesting it will fall like copper, because the supply is not there to make it fall. But you would have to say that we are at the peak of the zinc price (not sure here though, you could still be a bull). The other thing to remember here is that miners are capital intensive beasts - whilst EPS will be say $3.50 @ y/e (and you have to laugh as the IPO price of $2.00 was paid off in 1 year!!!!!!!!), you would think they wouldn't pay more than a dividend of say $2.00 going forward. Assuming this is maintained (and that is a big assumption), payback using a dividend yield model with a conservative discount rate of 8.5% (and this is very conservative) gives you a payback of 17 years. Hrmmmmm......... see the difference!!!!!!
Once again, I would be happy for anyone to attempt to convince me otherwise, but i think ZFX is long overdue for a pullback......
Cheers
Reece
I think I do understand this stock - people might misunderstand me when I say the stock will move to $16.00. This is not because I think the price of zinc will halve tomorrow - clearly there isn't enough supply to move prices this way. But todays close is a clear bear sign - high volume (although admittedly not as high as we have seen on some days) and a close on low for the day. We have also broken the holding pattern the stock that has been in place since December.
Michael, whilst you say that the stock doesn't have a high PE, this is a little misleading. Just remember 2 years ago when ZFX was a $2.00 stock, it had a PE of 6. Today, ZFX still has a PE of around 5.5. What has changed - well, IMO the risk. The zinc price certainly looks to have stalled. Now I am not suggesting it will fall like copper, because the supply is not there to make it fall. But you would have to say that we are at the peak of the zinc price (not sure here though, you could still be a bull). The other thing to remember here is that miners are capital intensive beasts - whilst EPS will be say $3.50 @ y/e (and you have to laugh as the IPO price of $2.00 was paid off in 1 year!!!!!!!!), you would think they wouldn't pay more than a dividend of say $2.00 going forward. Assuming this is maintained (and that is a big assumption), payback using a dividend yield model with a conservative discount rate of 8.5% (and this is very conservative) gives you a payback of 17 years. Hrmmmmm......... see the difference!!!!!!
Once again, I would be happy for anyone to attempt to convince me otherwise, but i think ZFX is long overdue for a pullback......
Cheers
Reece
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Champ
For the record - no, I do not hold ZFX shares. No, I am not looking to buy any when they become cheap. I will leave it at I obviously have a different view from most ppl on this forum. Let us let the market decide who is right - I respect that everyone has an individual view and it wouldn't be interesting if we all agreed with each other. Hence why it is a forum.
Interesting day today, wide range and finished just about where it was yesterday. Anybody have any views?????
Cheers
Reece
For the record - no, I do not hold ZFX shares. No, I am not looking to buy any when they become cheap. I will leave it at I obviously have a different view from most ppl on this forum. Let us let the market decide who is right - I respect that everyone has an individual view and it wouldn't be interesting if we all agreed with each other. Hence why it is a forum.
Interesting day today, wide range and finished just about where it was yesterday. Anybody have any views?????
Cheers
Reece
Sean K
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Obvious support at $17.00 ish. Seems to be subject to general market sentiment at the moment, zn seems still to be one of the commoditites to be digging up. It's probably due for a breather anyway, last 3 months have been exceptional. Only a drama if you bought 3 days ago I guess......reece55 said:
chops_a_must
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I sold out on Thursday afternoon, for two reasons:reece55 said:
1) I didn't like the fact the SP pushed up against the lowering zinc price, with a +2000 number in the inventories, on Wednesday.
2) The afternoon rally that usually eventuates on negative days for ZFX, didn't happen. That's when I sold.
I'm very happy with the profit I made in a short time, and will be looking to buy in when I think it has bottomed out, with greater resources. I'll be looking at a price between 16, and 16.50 to get back in, the level of support above the last one used. But you know, that's just opinion.
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Some Fib projections for wave 4 (what I think we're in) suggest around $14.25-15.
What wave do other EW analysts think we're in? I have only counted on the daily, not intraday.
What wave do other EW analysts think we're in? I have only counted on the daily, not intraday.
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No very good news here. I guess a wave of lawsuits is coming this way.
Water metal levels prompt Zinifex warning to residents
Mining company Zinifex is warning some residents of Karumba in Queensland's Gulf country not to drink from their rainwater tanks, after checks revealed high "metal" levels.
Spokesman Jeoffrey Innes says the company is taking responsibility for the problem and will expand the testing program this week.
Mr Innes says residents will also be offered free blood-tests to determine if there is a problem with lead levels.
"We still export lead and zinc out of Karumba and it's lead and zinc in the water, so why try to cover up something that, in our thoughts anyway, clearly has our name on it? So let's work with the local residents and resolve the issue," he said.
"There's a lot of other people in Karumba so we're testing all the other tanks to find out whether it's just a localised thing, or whether it's spread throughout the whole town."
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200701/s1822854.htm
Water metal levels prompt Zinifex warning to residents
Mining company Zinifex is warning some residents of Karumba in Queensland's Gulf country not to drink from their rainwater tanks, after checks revealed high "metal" levels.
Spokesman Jeoffrey Innes says the company is taking responsibility for the problem and will expand the testing program this week.
Mr Innes says residents will also be offered free blood-tests to determine if there is a problem with lead levels.
"We still export lead and zinc out of Karumba and it's lead and zinc in the water, so why try to cover up something that, in our thoughts anyway, clearly has our name on it? So let's work with the local residents and resolve the issue," he said.
"There's a lot of other people in Karumba so we're testing all the other tanks to find out whether it's just a localised thing, or whether it's spread throughout the whole town."
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200701/s1822854.htm
Kauri
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