ZFX - Zinifex Limited

swingstar · 8 January 2007

Kauri, mine is nearly exactly the same... I think Nick's would be too by now which he posted a few weeks back. I've also highlighted bearish RSI divergence.

With the two Fib projections near each other at around $14.25, and support made there also at wave iv, I think there's a high probability of it ending there.

Definitely not out of the question, especially if metals continue to fall and we have a decent correction like May.

wavepicker · 8 January 2007

swingstar said:
Kauri, mine is nearly exactly the same... I think Nick's would be too by now which he posted a few weeks back. I've also highlighted bearish RSI divergence.

With the two Fib projections near each other at around $14.25, and support made there also at wave iv, I think there's a high probability of it ending there.

Definitely not out of the question, especially if metals continue to fall and we have a decent correction like May.

Hi guys,

Ever considered that the 5th wave may have already finished??

Kauri · 8 January 2007

wavepicker said:
Hi guys,

Ever considered that the 5th wave may have already finished??

Hi wavepicker,
Yes....... I have 2 smaller degree 5's completed, and if the (3) wave is indeed a (5) then the price action falling/not falling through the 13.50 level that I have marked as a (1) will help verify the count either way.

wavepicker · 8 January 2007

Kauri said:
Hi wavepicker,
Yes....... I have 2 smaller degree 5's completed, and if the (3) wave is indeed a (5) then the price action falling/not falling through the 13.50 level that I have marked as a (1) will help verify the count either way.

Would imagine this should find support at approx $15 plus or minus 50c to thereafter mount a reasonable countertrend whereby another short position maybe on the cards.

This short trade was great they don't come much easier than this

Cheers

swingstar · 8 January 2007

I have counted the end of wave 3, either of a wave (3) or (5). Mine differs with Kauri's where he's counted a wave in the middle of July.

If it is a wave 5, then all the better.

michael_selway · 8 January 2007

swingstar said:
I have counted the end of wave 3, either of a wave (3) or (5). Mine differs with Kauri's where he's counted a wave in the middle of July.

If it is a wave 5, then all the better.

If its a wave 3, does that mean more upside?

thx

MS

swingstar · 8 January 2007

michael_selway said:
If its a wave 3, does that mean more upside?

thx

MS

Yep, after wave 4, then a larger correction of all lesser degree counter-trends (i.e. waves 2 and 4).

wavepicker · 8 January 2007

swingstar said:
Yep, after wave 4, then a larger correction of all lesser degree counter-trends (i.e. waves 2 and 4).

If there is 1 more leg, all it does is add more evidence to an impending correction thereafter, and another great trading opportunity.

ATM can see support coming in at 15 bucks or thereabouts. Perhaps it could be enough for a rally that may carry to 3/4 of the entire range down. Can't see a new high being put in at this stage although anything is possible in the market. For now, no evidence to show that this downtrend is at risk of ending. Perhaps in the next couple of days when some more info comes to hand.

Cherers

YOUNG_TRADER · 9 January 2007

If it Zinc closes like this watch out $15 ZFX tomoz

Zinc January 08,08:00
Bid/Ask 1.7297 - 1.7388
Change -0.0964 -5.28%

swingstar · 9 January 2007

wavepicker said:
For now, no evidence to show that this downtrend is at risk of ending. Perhaps in the next couple of days when some more info comes to hand.

I agree... Tomorrow is shaping up to be a good day for the shorts, with zinc currently down 5+% tonight.

Kauri · 9 January 2007

YOUNG_TRADER said:
If it Zinc closes like this watch out $15 ZFX tomoz

Zinc January 08,08:00
Bid/Ask 1.7297 - 1.7388
Change -0.0964 -5.28%

And I read in The Australian the weekend that ZFX is unhedged..... zinc and lead.... :hide:

bvbfan · 9 January 2007

Doesn't look good

Fab · 9 January 2007

Kauri said:
And I read in The Australian the weekend that ZFX is unhedged..... zinc and lead.... :hide:

Can anyone explain to me what hedging is ? and why a company would not be hedge ?

wayneL · 9 January 2007

Unhedged means that they simply sell their production at the going rate.

Producers may hedge their production by using forward contracts (futures) to "lock in" a particular price for future production, or a part of their production.

This means that they can gaurantee recieving a particular price they are happy with, but they will not be able to benefit if the price of the commodity goes up.

Example: I am a gold producer and will produce 10,000 ozs in the coming year.

I look at the current price of gold @$600 and know I can make a certain profit at that price. However if gold goes down, I may not be profitable. So I make the decsision to short sell 100 gold futures contract at todays price.

This means I must deliver the gold for $600 an oz at specified delivery dates in the future. I am guaranteed that price. However if Gold goes to $1,000,000 an oz, tough, I still only recieve $600

a double edged sword

clowboy · 9 January 2007

wayneL said:
However if Gold goes to $1,000,000 an oz,

and wouldnt that make for a happy new year?

chops_a_must · 9 January 2007

Very big bounce today. Can't really see why as the zinc price continues to fall.

nizar · 9 January 2007

chops_a_must said:
Very big bounce today. Can't really see why as the zinc price continues to fall.

"Investors" trying to pick a bottom. You know, like, buying "cheap".
BUT if zinc falls again tonight (as the probabilities suggest) then its double trouble 2mrw IMO...

chops_a_must · 9 January 2007

nizar said:
"Investors" trying to pick a bottom. You know, like, buying "cheap".
BUT if zinc falls again tonight (as the probabilities suggest) then its double trouble 2mrw IMO...

Maybe people think they mine copper, not zinc. Lol!

clowboy · 9 January 2007

chops_a_must said:
Very big bounce today. Can't really see why as the zinc price continues to fall.

The market as a whole was as confusing as hell today IMO. I found it very strange the action ZFX had today given the news announcment regarding poisionous water and the price fall of zinc overnight. Still anything can happen

reece55 · 9 January 2007

Clowboy
After the heavy downward movement in the last 3 days, I think it was inevitable that it would have a positive day today, as with the entire resources sector. However, I don't think our move down here has ended - just another setup for a short opportunity IMO.

Cheers

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