ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[michael_selway]

Low close, increased volume..sellers are in. That said, not sure how long it will stay that way...

Hi Nick so you Bullish or Bearish on ZFX technically atm?

thx

MS

 

[swingstar]

Hi Nick so you Bullish or Bearish on ZFX technically atm?

thx

MS

For Nick's count to be validated, the high at point v can't be breached, and we would need to see a further decline past the low of wave a.

Short-term bearish, in other words...

 

[Nick Radge]

That's correct Swing. The most probable count is that we'll start tracking back $16.35 as a minimum. That would be the typical retracement although it could extend further.

If we move straight higher from here without the retracement it would suggest wave-v has extended higher in an ending diagonal and would then retrace.

Either way, we should continue to travel higher as we're only 3/5's the way through the trend. I think the term "bearish" may be a bit strong. Retracement is better.

 

[barney]

Considering how strong the general market has been, there is a little negativety creeping in from some analysts re Zinc and other metals. Wonder if ZFX offloading their smelting business will affect the sp at some stage .... Daily report from "Basemetals" ......

Basemetals.com analyst William Adams said in a Thursday morning report that as such it was not surprising that copper had started to slip as stocks had been rising steadily for a number of months, canceled warrants were at a low level and the nearby spreads were in contango. "Likewise, as soon as the strong fundamental support for lead, zinc and nickel, show signs of easing, with stock rises, the buying was put on hold and it looks as the profit-takers were keen to take what was on the table in case the market stalled. Indeed their profit-taking was enough to trigger a stall, especially in lead," he said. Lead was bid at $1,645/mt at 0957 GMT, unchanged from its previous close, while nickel gained $500 to be bid at $33,600/mt. Tin pulled back $75 to $10,850/mt, while zinc climbed up $40 to $4,330/mt on Thursday morning. Aluminium alloy dipped $5 to be bid at $2,315/mt, while North American alloy was bid at the same level, also down $5 from its previous close.

Adams said although the market had got used to these high price levels it was important to remember that these were "exceptionally strong" prices for the metals and therefore they needed ongoing strong fundamental developments to support current prices. "So with the relentless stock falls now no longer evident, it looks as though the dynamics of the market have changed. In addition, with growing concerns over the demand outlook, especially in the US, consumers no doubt think the metals are switching from a seller's market to a buyer's market," said Adams, adding that although there were risks to supply from strikes and maintenance shutdowns, in this environment, buyers might feel in no need to restock. "In the near term it looks as though prices are in consolidation mode and that may well take prices lower, especially if there are still longs looking to square up ahead of year-end," he said.

 

[forsoil]

help needed from new member

I am a new member here, and thinking of loading some ZFX. Can anyone inform me the type of Zn roaster used in Zinifex's Clarksville site? It seems this is the only site without profit. Thank you very much!

FSoil

 

[MiningGuru]

ZFX has now pushed through a new all time high today.

Good sign for a further push to blue sky territory.

Will easily above $20 very soon

 

[barney]

ZFX has now pushed through a new all time high today.

Good sign for a further push to blue sky territory.

Will easily above $20 very soon

Howdy MG, You may well be right, but just to keep the contrarian view alive, ZFX traded up last three days on Decreasing Volume, and there is a substantial divergance on Price verses Momentum .............. I will be treading very carefully, particularly in a week or two after the christmas/new year euphoria dies off a little .............. Fundamentals often get left outside the front door on ZFX imo. All the best, Barney.

 

[gresim25]

barney, at least you could do your technical analysis correctly, maybe than you would not need to 'ignite' contrarian view...perhaps you need a more detailed charts preview *other than incredible charts)? you could clearly see that the zfx traded above the donward/consolidation pattern starrted from dec 8th & that it was broken on dec 28th' & still 2 buying days held above it

 

[barney]

barney, at least you could do your technical analysis correctly, maybe than you would not need to 'ignite' contrarian view...perhaps you need a more detailed charts preview *other than incredible charts)? you could clearly see that the zfx traded above the donward/consolidation pattern starrted from dec 8th & that it was broken on dec 28th' & still 2 buying days held above it

Hey Gresim, I'll take that on the chin ........Everyone around here knows I'm fairly new to TA, and I'm sure they take that into account when adjudicating on my charting abilities As I mentioned in a couple of earlier posts, I'm more interested in trying to keep a "balance" on the constant over-positive slant on zinc stocks in general so the novice punters (of which I unhappily admit I am one) dont get lulled into thinking that ZFX or any other stock is a "sure thing" ..... The drop from 10th to 17th November is a good case in point ie ZFX was $14.50 a little over a month ago ......... Essentially not much has changed in that time except the quickly rising SP. Not trying to ignite a contrarian view; just pointing out that caution might be prudent ........... Cheers, Barney.

 

[coyotte]

ZFX has now pushed through a new all time high today.

Good sign for a further push to blue sky territory.

Will easily above $20 very soon

WHY ???
"the $20 statement"

 

[coyotte]

Nothing WRONG with your analysis Barney

Higher prices on declining Vol is a topping method in it's own right .

Have U tried Twiggs Money Flow @ IC
can be a handy indicator in these situations

Happy and a Safe New Year
Cheers

 

[machi]

Hey Gresim, I'll take that on the chin ........Everyone around here knows I'm fairly new to TA, and I'm sure they take that into account when adjudicating on my charting abilities As I mentioned in a couple of earlier posts, I'm more interested in trying to keep a "balance" on the constant over-positive slant on zinc stocks in general so the novice punters (of which I unhappily admit I am one) dont get lulled into thinking that ZFX or any other stock is a "sure thing" ..... The drop from 10th to 17th November is a good case in point ie ZFX was $14.50 a little over a month ago ......... Essentially not much has changed in that time except the quickly rising SP. Not trying to ignite a contrarian view; just pointing out that caution might be prudent ........... Cheers, Barney.

Don't worry about him Barney, I reckon that is a good piece of analysis. In fact this whole market is looking rather toppy IMO. Personally I think we are in for a different market next year compared to the strongly trending one we have had the last 3 years. I am no professional, just say what I see. But I am playing the short side next year as I feel this market will undergo it's biggest correction since 2003.

Keep up the great work Barney

 

[coyotte]

barney, at least you could do your technical analysis correctly, maybe than you would not need to 'ignite' contrarian view...perhaps you need a more detailed charts preview *other than incredible charts)? you could clearly see that the zfx traded above the donward/consolidation pattern starrted from dec 8th & that it was broken on dec 28th' & still 2 buying days held above it

Up day with Narrow Spreads with low Volume

A new definition of buying ?

Where / How did U come by this one ?

That High Vol / Narrow Spread day would make me wary

Cheers

 

[reece55]

Coyotte
HAHAHA...... No, $20 IMO for sure........

Guys, have a look at the definition of a false break...... As indicated, low volume, tight range - this stock is going up due to the fact that the sellers are busy down at Portsea for the weekend..... watch on Tuesday....

 

[chops_a_must]

The drop from 10th to 17th November is a good case in point ie ZFX was $14.50 a little over a month ago ......... Essentially not much has changed in that time except the quickly rising SP. Not trying to ignite a contrarian view; just pointing out that caution might be prudent ........... Cheers, Barney.

Not much has changed apart from them announcing the merger and becoming the world's largest zinc producer.

It is running out of steam, but I don't think it will head incredibly low like some people have predicted. I'm thinking between $16-$17 as a correction price.

 

[michael_selway]

Not much has changed apart from them announcing the merger and becoming the world's largest zinc producer.

It is running out of steam, but I don't think it will head incredibly low like some people have predicted. I'm thinking between $16-$17 as a correction price.

chops do you hold any ZFX atm?

thx

MS

 

[chops_a_must]

chops do you hold any ZFX atm?

thx

MS

Yes, and if it does dip again, I'll be looking at getting more.

 

[machi]

Not much has changed apart from them announcing the merger and becoming the world's largest zinc producer.

It is running out of steam, but I don't think it will head incredibly low like some people have predicted. I'm thinking between $16-$17 as a correction price.

Maybe you should take a look at some of the other world indices as well, instead of just focusing on the fundementals. Next year IMO will surprise many, For starters a rebound in the USD next year if it happens(yes this market is now churning), will mean bugger all chance of metals in general of continuing this trend of the last 3 years. If not a major correction then at least a pause in the uptrned with a major consolidation. Even that will be enough to scare the hell out of medium/to long term holders. Most won't have the nerve to ride it out, it's just human nature.


If ZFX can double in 6 months, then it can just as can just as easily fall 50% in 12 months. If you don't realise this then you should not involve yourself in the market. Or do you think markets only travel in one direction?????

 

[chops_a_must]

If not a major correction then at least a pause in the uptrned with a major consolidation. Even that will be enough to scare the hell out of medium/to long term holders. Most won't have the nerve to ride it out, it's just human nature.


If ZFX can double in 6 months, then it can just as can just as easily fall 50% in 12 months. If you don't realise this then you should not involve yourself in the market. Or do you think markets only travel in one direction?????

I'm not a trader, so I look at medium/ long term outcomes. Zinc demand/ supply isn't likely to come into balance until at least 2008 on conservative estimates.

So you really think it's P/E ratio will go below 3?

I'm not expecting continuing record base metal prices, but even if they do drop significantly, it doesn't mean that these mining companies aren't still making a killing.

 

[reece55]

Chops
There is a good reason why ZFX has a low PE - the life of its mines are not very long. Why do you think they are attempting to invest in multiple juniors (TZN and others) - they need to find a new supply of zinc to fuel the business in the future. I wouldn't be basing my valuation on a PE comparison here - just wouldn't be apples with apples.

IMO ZFX will have a breather and head back to about 16.00, or at least in that zone...... then we will see what happens from there.....

It is interesting to note that AXA have increase their sub holding by 1% at a price of $18.00 - they obviously rate the stock in the future..... technically however, it looks weak......

Cheers
Reece