ZFX - Zinifex Limited

chops_a_must · 30 December 2006

reece55 said:
IMO ZFX will have a breather and head back to about 16.00, or at least in that zone...... then we will see what happens from there.....

So how is that different from what I have said above?

reece55 · 30 December 2006

Sorry Chops, didn't see your post before indicating your prediction of a fall to about the 16-17 mark....... All I was indicating was that a PE methodology here needs to be put into perspective with the fundamental values of the Company...

Cheers
Reece

chops_a_must · 30 December 2006

reece55 said:
Sorry Chops, didn't see your post before indicating your prediction of a fall to about the 16-17 mark....... All I was indicating was that a PE methodology here needs to be put into perspective with the fundamental values of the Company...

Cheers
Reece

Yes, I think they realise that their mine life is the biggest problem. But if you believe their announcements, mine life should extend beyond 2020.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20061127/pdf/00671688.pdf

See page 28.

mmmmining · 30 December 2006

chops_a_must said:
Yes, I think they realise that their mine life is the biggest problem. But if you believe their announcements, mine life should extend beyond 2020.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20061127/pdf/00671688.pdf

See page 28.

It remind me a couple of years ago when JBM is around $4, with PE of 5-6, and 8% dividend. I did not buy it because of the estimated 5yr mining life. It ends up as big mistake obviously.

Finally I realize that big mining companies always has the edge to find more deposits when management is good enough. The have the money, people and skill.

Rafa · 31 December 2006

mmmmining said:
Finally I realize that big mining companies always has the edge to find more deposits when management is good enough. The have the money, people and skill.

Exactly, Cash in hand is what matters.... and ZFX is a cash cow of the highest order.

But technically, it is looking weak...
But each to their own, you each have your own trading plan.... trade it accodingly.

rederob · 31 December 2006

mmmmining said:
It remind me a couple of years ago when JBM is around $4, with PE of 5-6, and 8% dividend. I did not buy it because of the estimated 5yr mining life. It ends up as big mistake obviously.

Finally I realize that big mining companies always has the edge to find more deposits when management is good enough. The have the money, people and skill.

I kept reading that PDN was overpriced, overpriced, and overpriced, so left it alone last year (2005).
This year I bought into PDN, twice, on retraces and I still hear people saying it's overpriced.
If I see PDN retrace again, I will buy more again.

ZFX is in a different camp to PDN - base metals versus "energy".
However, if I were asked if it was worth buying ZFX at its present price, my answer would be yes.
However, I prefer to buy the dips and personally would not buy into ZFX above $17 at the moment.
That said, there is nothing saying ZFX will get down to $17.
Technically, it's over-extended and needs to consolidate in the broad $15 to $18 range before making a concerted attack on $20.
Then again, there are some chartists that see a very low price for ZFX in the near/medium term.
They could be right, too.
But then again...... ....... ......

Fab · 1 January 2007

Indeed I believe in ZFX too and I am playing to buy into it between $13 -$15 if it ever go back there.
I bought more PDN on friday and I think that they will go much higher if production ramp up as per expected. It might drop big time if there is any delay even if it is a small one as the market valuation is already very high for PDN

Rafa · 2 January 2007

what do we make of today cosolodation above the previous all time high...

i am certainly surprised by it given zinc was down a bit overnight?

MiningGuru · 2 January 2007

ZFX has now hit the $19 mark and still looks strong.

I think that it is still underpriced with a low P/E

Will continue to move up in the traditionally strong first half of Jan market up towards and above $20.

Rafa · 2 January 2007

Yeah, certainly trading at very cheap multiples, but atleast i can understand this one...

What i don't understand is why BHP is trading at a PE ration of around 8, less or about the same as ZFX!!!

MiningGuru · 2 January 2007

Finished very strongly.

Ended on the high for the day.

Very strong signs for a continued push upwards over the next few days!

michael_selway · 2 January 2007

MiningGuru said:
Finished very strongly.

Ended on the high for the day.

Very strong signs for a continued push upwards over the next few days!

Not over a few days, but this whole year i think

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 219.9 345.9 266.3 152.8
DPS 80.0 160.7 106.5 69.0

thx

MS

chops_a_must · 2 January 2007

Rafa said:
what do we make of today cosolodation above the previous all time high...

i am certainly surprised by it given zinc was down a bit overnight?

And the techies come a cropper on ZFX again. Certainly is a hard stock to predict the movements of.

Maybe people are becoming convinced of a long term gain, and reluctant to sell at this price?

machi · 2 January 2007

chops_a_must said:
And the techies come a cropper on ZFX again. Certainly is a hard stock to predict the movements of.

Maybe people are becoming convinced of a long term gain, and reluctant to sell at this price?[/QUOTE

Why have the techies come a cropper?? This year is only 2 days in and upside movement hasn't exactly been terrific, compared to earlier moves. All I see is a trend that is getting tired a maybe even in the process of topping. Anything is possible in the market.

Trends like these have a habit of moving up fast only to be smashed in a matter of a few weeks selling. Easy come easy go as they say.

abucs · 3 January 2007

How accurate do you suppose the future years EPS forecasts are ?
With the EPS set to decline over the next 3 years, what are the possibile good news stories that will surprise on the upside ?

Certainly done well recently for all involved.

rederob · 3 January 2007

machi said:
Trends like these have a habit of moving up fast only to be smashed in a matter of a few weeks selling. Easy come easy go as they say.

I'm not sure I would call a few years of trend "fast".
Anyone still on ZFX having bought in 2005 will probably have the stock paid for in dividends returned in the next 2 years: The rest will be profit.
I also think the notion of ZFX's price being "smashed" in a matter of weeks is about as probable as man landing on Mars in the same time frame.
Any techies wanting to put the Elliott Wave counts up?

silence · 3 January 2007

This year's dividends aren't going to vanish overnight. So I see no reason for the price to get smashed. Maybe a short term correction to $14-16 but we'll have to see what happens.

machi · 3 January 2007

rederob said:
I'm not sure I would call a few years of trend "fast".
Anyone still on ZFX having bought in 2005 will probably have the stock paid for in dividends returned in the next 2 years: The rest will be profit.
I also think the notion of ZFX's price being "smashed" in a matter of weeks is about as probable as man landing on Mars in the same time frame.
Any techies wanting to put the Elliott Wave counts up?

Don't get too cocky now,you were very wrong on Gold and the techies did get it right with the EW charts or have we forgotten?????

rederob · 3 January 2007

machi said:
Don't get too cocky now,you were very wrong on Gold and the techies did get it right with the EW charts or have we forgotten?????

If you read the gold thread carefully you will find I was tipping gold to go to $700 in 2006 - did the techies have it dead and buried? - and $850 in 2007, before ducati chimed in with his obfuscation.
In fact, a year ago when I began posting here gold was only in the $500s and I was "warned" about possible ramping from the likes of Rich Kid and WayneL.
I was so wrong, apparently, that along with tipping silver and gold as "buys", I also added "zinc" to the mix.
ZFX was trading at around $8 at that stage and I must apologise back then for my cockiness too.

machi · 3 January 2007

rederob said:
If you read the gold thread carefully you will find I was tipping gold to go to $700 in 2006 - did the techies have it dead and buried? - and $850 in 2007, before ducati chimed in with his obfuscation.
In fact, a year ago when I began posting here gold was only in the $500s and I was "warned" about possible ramping from the likes of Rich Kid and WayneL.
I was so wrong, apparently, that along with tipping silver and gold as "buys", I also added "zinc" to the mix.
ZFX was trading at around $8 at that stage and I must apologise back then for my cockiness too.

I did bother to read the Gold Thread carefully RED. All I saw was chartists posting EW charts calling for a top in April and May of 2006 were spot on to a few dollars within the peak also tracked the price decline pretty close thereafter!!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=23&pp=20

Thereafter you went into hibernation for a while but the duc caught up with you.
No doubt a similar story will be told again with zinc

ZFX - Zinifex Limited

chops_a_must

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reece55

chops_a_must

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mmmmining

Rafa

rederob

Fab

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MiningGuru

Rafa

MiningGuru

michael_selway

Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

chops_a_must

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machi

abucs

Abucs

rederob

silence

Toot Toot!

machi

rederob

machi

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