ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[nizar]

Verry happy I diddn't sell on friday!

this is interesting...
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19716193-12342,00.html

Takeover bid would have to be around 60% premium....I hope it gets a bid!

that article was written 8th of july
ZFX is a winner, nothing wrong with locking in profits of course, but IMO theres a long, long way to go with this one...

at zinc spot of us$1.85/lb westpac valuation is $30 a share. And zinc will go much higher than that, i wont be suprised to see us$2.85/lb in 6 or so months time...

 

[pacer]

Correct Nizar...diddnt look at the date...was emailed to me by a friend....Price was only $10.50 then....so we have a 34% premium already on that price....another RIPPER of a day...up 5% and rising slightly.....AWESOME!

 

[silence]

I'm interested in knowing, is there anyone here who bought these early on, like $5 or less and still holds them? You'd be laughing.......

 

[Nicks]

I'm interested in knowing, is there anyone here who bought these early on, like $5 or less and still holds them? You'd be laughing.......

I grabbed some just over 4 weeks ago at 10.80 to 11.00.

I got OXR at the same time and am still buying on that. It still hasnt taken off just yet.

 

[rwkni1]

I'm interested in knowing, is there anyone here who bought these early on, like $5 or less and still holds them? You'd be laughing.......

Yup, got these suckers at $2.30 around Dec 04, have thought about selling on numerous occaisions, but since that date LME zinc stocks have continued to drop at a fairly predictable rate - until that changes i think i'll continue to hold.

 

[Damuzzdu]

Below is link from Greg Gailey (CEO) of our company.

It is a darn good read and shows what they are thinking. It gives a good analysis as to what ZFX believe might happen to supply and demand over the next years.

http://www.zinifex.com/Index.aspx?link_id=16.960

It is two parts, one the speech the other the slides.

This together with what was said in the Annual report and i think there is little doubt as to where the management want to take ZFX. They are not going to try to be a BHP or RIO, but a niche player.

The money they are expending in the next few yrs exploring is where the prize is. If they happen to find another century in and around where the mine is now, and that is not totally of the question, the market will slowly re-price ZFX to something that I do not think we can even think about.

Just thought I would pen this down re P/E and next yrs profit. If you take a really close look at some of the predictions for 06/07 profit most are coming up in the range of $1.3b-$1.4B. Now if you pull apart the the accounts ie split the year into two you will see that ZFX made $853M in the last half of 05/06. There are some tax effects there, so we need to be careful when looking at the number.

LY profit wasachieved with the Zn spot price at ave $1.00/lb across the whole yr.(my guess). The spot is now $1.90, with ave for 06/07 somewhere prob. around $1.50 or so; maybe higher. Now that is 50% higher than FY0506. Lead has also been doing well. Run this thru the calculator and you get c$1.1B for just one half year. Ok there might higher charges, labour electricity, tax and production is going to be down slightly so lets say $1B double it up and you get $2B, that is EPS of $5/share. That will make fwd P/E 4.1. P/E tonite based on LY results is now at 7. Take the $5/share x 7 and you get $35.00, sometime in September 07. Try it with OXR's P/E and you get something that is well I'll let you work that out..............

Can this all go wrong? Yes the Zn price might crash but we are 4 months into this financial yr and prices that ZFX gets for its products run 4 months behind. So that really means we are in "feb 07" as to pricing.

Hope this did not lose you too much.
Cheers

 

[Jay-684]

I'm interested in knowing, is there anyone here who bought these early on, like $5 or less and still holds them? You'd be laughing.......

purchased for $3.30 but then sold for $11.80

recently bought back in for $10.80 though (and still collected the div)

it is a nice thought knowing you purchased them for only ~5x the current div amount!

 

[pacer]

ZFX and KZL took a breather today ready for the next run, hopefuly up though.

Any reason for them to fall?......I don't think inventories have risen....it sounds like it will be 2008 before supply overtakes demand, and then only slightly to bring inventories up slowly, unless ofcourse demand increases then it may be even longer, especialy with Chinese, Indian, ect. growth rates.

So zinc realy has only one way to go till then....I'll let you lot work it out.

I think it was panicy traders taking a profit and a lack of volume from the big players....I expect more profits to come, but perhaps not at such an over heated pace......see you at $17 for xmas is my guesstimate, then I can afford a month off playing this silly game...hehe

 

[clowboy]

Pacer what makes you think things will slow down?
At the end of the day I have no way of telling the future any better than anyone else but I can't see any brakes on this train, Zinc back up to $1.9278 in early trade.

 

[pacer]

Clowboy....

It's been my experience that stocks can get over heated and suffer as a concequence....I think 2 days of 4.5 and 5% in a row can mean trouble for the SP very short term, but I don't believe we will see a down turn, just a slowing of the % rises each day over the next few days/weeks.

Personaly I want to see 10% rises each day for the next 2 months!

Go you good thing!!!!.............

 

[nizar]

ZFX and KZL took a breather today ready for the next run, hopefuly up though.

Any reason for them to fall?......I don't think inventories have risen....it sounds like it will be 2008 before supply overtakes demand, and then only slightly to bring inventories up slowly, unless ofcourse demand increases then it may be even longer, especialy with Chinese, Indian, ect. growth rates.

LOL KZL has gone up for the last 13 days, and it goes down by 2% and u are complaining?? come on bro, seriously. If someone was to offer me 25% in 2 weeks and then a 1.8% retrace i would grab it for both hands...

That stock is a BEAUTY... and i appreciate all the $$$$$ its bringing for me... we couldnt have asked for a better performance from KZL...

As for ZFX, they achieved 41% of the revenue of FY2006 from ONE QUARTER and that was when Century was closed for a bit and production was down... HMmmmm what will happen when production is back to normal and the zinc price is even higher. Well my call is $2.5billion in NPAT for the big one this year...

 

[nizar]

ZFX - Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
BROKER NEWS - 31/10/2006


The broker notes an update from management indicated the Century Mine life could be extended by as much as five years thanks to the current exploration program, which would add about 3% to NPV.
As a result, it expects the perception of the company lacking growth will slowly change.

Target price is $19.72.Current Price is $15.46. Difference: $4.26 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

 

[CanOz]

ZFX - Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
BROKER NEWS - 31/10/2006


The broker notes an update from management indicated the Century Mine life could be extended by as much as five years thanks to the current exploration program, which would add about 3% to NPV.
As a result, it expects the perception of the company lacking growth will slowly change.

Target price is $19.72.Current Price is $15.46. Difference: $4.26 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

I guess you like ZFX too

 

[clowboy]

Nizar,

What price are you using for Zinc for a 2.5 billion NPAT?

Broker reports are still using 90c LMAO.

One report did mention that if zinc held out at current spot ($1.80+) then ZFX is valued at more like $30 per share.

What if zinc goes on to $3 a pound? It's always a possiblilty.

 

[michael_selway]

ZFX - Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
BROKER NEWS - 31/10/2006


The broker notes an update from management indicated the Century Mine life could be extended by as much as five years thanks to the current exploration program, which would add about 3% to NPV.
As a result, it expects the perception of the company lacking growth will slowly change.

Target price is $19.72.Current Price is $15.46. Difference: $4.26 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Target price 19.72. absolutely amazing!

thx

MS

 

[nizar]

Nizar,

What price are you using for Zinc for a 2.5 billion NPAT?

Broker reports are still using 90c LMAO.

One report did mention that if zinc held out at current spot ($1.80+) then ZFX is valued at more like $30 per share.

What if zinc goes on to $3 a pound? It's always a possiblilty.

Clowboy, they earnt $1.08billion NPAT and that was based on average zinc price of USD2105/tonne (!!) I dont think many people realise this. Thats US97c/lb.

If zinc averages USD4400/tonne which is us$2/lb (and its likely to be higher) their NPAT will be $2.3billion.

If zinc spikes to $3/lb which is probable (IMO) in the next 6 months then u will not believe how the zinifex sp will go, i cant put a figure on it coz obviously that would just be pure speculation, but i think it will be amazing.

Im probably the most bullish non-holder of this stock that is out there.

At the very minimum $2billion NPAT and $2/share dividend is likely.

BUt if they increase century mine life then it mite even get a re-rating completely.

MS - learn to think big. $19.72 will soon be very cheap for this stock.

 

[insider]

Target price 19.72. absolutely amazing!

thx

MS

How long should we hold this stick for to reach a target of 19... I spotted this stock at 7 dollars... could have made a pretty penny

 

[clowboy]

most bullish non-holder?

I thought you held ZFX?

 

[nizar]

most bullish non-holder?

I thought you held ZFX?

No only KZL and CBH for me. But still a huge fan, as u can tell.

Its been kind to me in the past.

 

[michael_selway]

How long should we hold this stick for to reach a target of 19... I spotted this stock at 7 dollars... could have made a pretty penny

yeah end is a good possibility imo

http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx

Just need to keep an eye on LME on warrant stocks

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 219.9 296.8 238.1 137.5
DPS 80.0 131.3 102.8 69.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 296.8 5.2 35.0%
Year Ending 30-06-08 238.1 6.5 -19.8%

thx

MS