ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[nizar]

Which stocks might that be?

thx

MS

KZL, CBH, OMC, EVE
AIM is the potential dark horse from the pack

The above are not recommendations or financial advice. Please consult a professional financial advisor and/or do your own research before investing.

 

[Sean K]

KZL, CBH, OMC, EVE
AIM is the potential dark horse from the pack

The above are not recommendations or financial advice. Please consult a professional financial advisor and/or do your own research before investing.

Isn't OMC a uranium stock?

 

[nizar]

yeh bro i didnt say it was only the zinc stocks i hold that will double (in my opinion only, that said im having a pretty good run this year!)

 

[Kipp]

Vol doesn't really to matter for ZFX hey Kennas??? Seems to breakout even on just a trade of 5 mill.... reminds me of something Richkid once said "that volume is one of the worst indicators to trade by"... sure seems to be the case here. (CBH seems to live by volume though)...

Pacer, don't waste all of you money on Bourbon...

 

[nizar]

Vol doesn't really to matter for ZFX hey Kennas??? Seems to breakout even on just a trade of 5 mill.... reminds me of something Richkid once said "that volume is one of the worst indicators to trade by"... sure seems to be the case here. (CBH seems to live by volume though)...

Pacer, don't waste all of you money on Bourbon...

KZL also doesnt need volume to move also.
The top 20 holding 75% probably helps.
K Robinson MD owns >5% of the company, now aint that a great incentive to create "shareholder value". if you're reading this, keep up the great work son, LOL

 

[pacer]

Thanks for the tip Kipp,
This is one awesome trip.
I'll buy more bourbon,
If this keeps movin'.

Holding ZFX and KZL,
But when to sell.
There is no reason.
Hold till Xmas season?

This is blue sky,
We all know why.
Will it end soon,
Or reach the moon?

Thanks all you guys for you help here.......and will stay off the booze for a bit...I promise.
Hoped you liked the poem...just made it up.

 

[nizar]

Thanks for the tip Kipp,
This is one awesome trip.
I'll buy more bourbon,
If this keeps movin'.

Holding ZFX and KZL,
But when to sell.
There is no reason.
Hold till Xmas season?

You hold until next Xmas and i suspect u will be a very happy man

 

[dlineinvestor]

ZFX is having a great run thats for sure, We all know if LME stockpiles lift the price of zinc could do the opposite, other than company problems/costs what other factors can make the SP drop.
All comments appreciated

Holding ZFX and KZL

 

[MiningGuru]

ZFX will be touchin $20 in the Xmas, New Year rally

Mark my words!

Mining Guru

 

[Nicks]

Hi All

have a look at my related post on OXR. I hold ZFX and OXR and I think the issues affecting production while helping ZFX should actually help others like OXR doubly more. Next year should be a golden year for ZFX and OXR.

 

[YELNATS]

ZFX is having a great run thats for sure, We all know if LME stockpiles lift the price of zinc could do the opposite, other than company problems/costs what other factors can make the SP drop.
All comments appreciated

Holding ZFX and KZL

Also, what could make LME stockpiles lift? A reduction in demand and/or an increase in supply? Which is more likely, or are both quite unlikely over the next 1 to 2 years?

Hold ZFX, but missed the boat with KZL, so far. Regards YN.

 

[Fab]

ZFX is still very very cheap on a P/E base and zinc inventory are very low so even though it went up quite a lot it should keep rising

 

[Out Too Soon]

Pacer I think we'll have a few months beyond christmas a dip for a while then similar ride this time next year (I hope)
Scotch or Mekong for me tho. Mekong, Thailands magic drop.
Maybe Oxiana could offer me a job next time I'm in Thailand or Laos, I can speak both.

 

[Fab]

It does not look like it is going to stop anytime soon to me. Supply and demand will keep driving up this stock

 

[MiningGuru]

Yeh true and CBH have Toho zinc with about 24%, making both KZL and CBH hard to buy. But i think btw ZFX, KZL, and CBH there will be some sort of corporate play before the end of the year.

I have a good mate of mine works for KPMG Accounting, they handle all the accounts for ZFX, and him and his mates reckon ZFX, with all the cash they have, and their EXEMPLARY debt levels, are on the look out and have done the figures on a number of prospects. They've have brought their tax losses forward which may indicate they are gonna buy another business. CBH is the first company that came to mind. ZFX want Endeavour back! as it used to belong to Pasminco before it went bust, its one the few assets that ZFX didnt pick up.

I think that MLS could be a cheap zinc stock that could suit ZFX

Who knows?

 

[nizar]

ZFX is still very very cheap on a P/E base and zinc inventory are very low so even though it went up quite a lot it should keep rising

i thought u said it would top out at around $14?
let me guess - u turned bullish because now you are in?

 

[Fab]

Nizar,

Correct I am now in and I did believe that actually $13.50 was a resistance point which was a mistake. Like anybody else I make mistake and I am happy to admit it otherwise I would probably already be a millionaire. Hopefully ZFX has still some legs to run

 

[nizar]

Analysis of 1Q07 by Wesptac Broking

Event

A 14 day planned shutdown and lower grades at Century saw mined zinc production fall 11% to 114.5kt against 4Q06. Similarly lead output fell 27% to 12.4kt primarily due to grades.

Rosebery zinc production of 22.3kt was in line with 4Q06.

Group production of smelted zinc was up 3.5% to 160.4kt with near record performance from Hobart and Budel. Output at the smaller Clarksville smelter fell before planned maintenance in 2Q07.

Smelted lead production fell 48% to 32.2kt with a 1 in 20 year planned shutdown at Port Pirie taking 49 days. ZFX expects most of the lost output to be recovered in FY07.

Drilling near Century returned positive results. Rosebery made further high grade intersections including 9m @ 2.3% lead, 9.4% zinc, 0.1% copper, 63.3g/t silver and 0.7g/t gold.

Impact

Despite 1Q07 production being softer than expected, we upgrade our FY07 NPAT forecast 12% to $1.49bn after lifting the FY07 zinc price 11% to US$1.52/lb. Assumed higher operating costs partially offset. Our FY08 NPAT forecast similarly rises 5.7% to $1.04bn. With buoyant cashflow and a strong balance sheet, we expect more cash to be returned to shareholders. Dividend estimates are lifted accordingly.

Our valuation increases marginally to $9.75 a share. Reduced cash following the payment of a 70c dividend and mildly disappointing 1Q07 production is offset by higher short term zinc prices and the inclusion of a nominal $200m for Dugald River. Long term assumptions of US$0.70/lb zinc, US$0.41/lb lead, an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.76 and a 10% discount rate remain.

ZFX is highly leveraged to zinc and lead. At spot prices of US$1.85/lb zinc and US$0.72/lb lead, our valuation rises to an incredible $30.00 a share.

Recommendation Impact

We downgrade our recommendation from Hold to Reduce due to share price appreciation. Risk tolerant, short term orientated investors may hold for further potential gains from buoyant zinc prices. LME stocks remain tight and falling, with potential for a short term supply squeeze due to strong demand and mining constraints.

(note: their intrinsic valuation is based on us$0.40/lb lead and us$0.70/lb zinc. Yeh, i know, what a joke)

 

[Brasidas]

There is a good discussion of the next "nickel" sector - zinc - in this week's Minesite weekly roundup which is here in full.

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia

By Our Man In Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia, another week, another record?

Oz. It certainly was for some stocks, especially those selling zinc and nickel to the steel industry. You probably saw the same reports we did down this way, that the world has almost run out of zinc, and the nickel price is showing no sign of retreating from its astonishingly high levels. The end result, naturally, is that zinc stocks such as Zinifex (ZFX), Perilya (PEM), CBH (CBH), Kagara (KZL) and Terramin (TZN) have moved into the stratosphere, joining the nickel brigade who where already up there.

Minews. A few price examples please?

Oz. Zinifex hit a 12-month high of A$15.05 during Friday trade, before settling back to close the week at A$14.65, a gain of A$1.14 (8.4 per cent), Perilya was up A70 cents (20.8 per cent) to A$4.05, down a fraction on its 12-month high of A$4.10 reached on Thursday and Friday. Kagara also set a 12-month high on Friday of A$7.34, before easing back to A$7.21, still up A82 cents (12.8 per cent). CBH, which received a severe setback at this time last year with a stope collapse in its Endeavour mine, was up A5.5 cents (8.8 per cent) to A67.5 cents, also a modest retreat from its high of A73.5 cents set on Thursday. Terramin, which is developing a small zinc mine close to Adelaide in South Australia, was up A14 cents (8.9 per cent) to A$1.70, down from a Thursday high of A$1.75.

Minews. And the nickel sector was strong again?

Oz. Yes, but not to the same extent as the zincs. Jubilee (JBM), which held its annual meeting during the week and said takeovers were off its agenda, was up a modest A20 cents (1.6 per cent) to A$12.60, down on its cracking start to the week when the stock hit a 12-month high of A$12.98. Western Areas (WSA) put on A25 cents (7.4 per cent) to close the week at A$3.64, also down from its 12-month high of A$3.79 set on Tuesday, and Minara (MRE) was up A11 cents (2.2 per cent) to A$5.20, which was some distance behind its 12-month high of A$5.55 set last week.

Minews. It looks from those price movements that the nickel sector is awfully close to a peak?

Oz. It would seem that way. It also seems to be the same with a number of the stocks exposed to the bulk end of the market where the future direction of iron ore and coal prices is being questioned. There were no dramatic falls, but the rises were modest, and not helped by a bit of corporate fiddling. Aztec Resources (AZR), which has been struggling with a takeover bid from rival Mt Gibson (MGX), and the sudden discovery of a royalty on its Koolan Island iron ore project, which it forgot to tell everyone about, resumed trading after a period in the sin bin, but hardly inspired. Volume was high on Thursday and Friday but the price only moved between A23 cents and A24 cents. There might be more to come on that royalty fiasco. Aztec’s takeover suitor, Mt Gibson, was treated more harshly, dropping A1.5 cents (2 per cent) to A70.5 cents. At the top end of the iron ore hopefuls, Fortescue Metals (FMG) returned to favour with a A78 cents (8.8 per cent) rise over the week to close at A$9.58.

Minews. And presumably your uranium stocks were hot after the production problems in Canada?

Oz. A strong week for that sector with most stocks trending up. Paladin (PDN) reached a 12-month high on Wednesday of A$6, but then fell away quite sharply to close on Friday at A$5.46, which was still up A54 cents (11 per cent) on the week. Pepinnini (PNN) also set a new high mark, trading up to A75 cents on Friday before easing back to close at A73 cents, still up A5 cents (7.4 per cent) for the week.

Minews. Much on the downside?

Oz. Very little, even the gold sector, which has been a bit of a laggard, managed to deliver some strong performances. Agincourt (AGC) reported good drill results from its Calais prospect near Wiluna and gained another A5 cents (4 per cent) to A$1.25. More importantly, last weeks’ rise took the gain over the past nine trading days to A25 cents (25 per cent). The only fall really worth noting was Consolidated Minerals (CSM) which dropped A10 cents (4.2 per cent) to A$2.30 as the takeover frenzy which gripped the stock earlier in the month seemed to run out of puff.

http://www.minesite.com/storyFull5.php?storySeq=3894

 

[pacer]

Verry happy I diddn't sell on friday!

this is interesting...
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19716193-12342,00.html

Takeover bid would have to be around 60% premium....I hope it gets a bid!