Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

[PZ99]

Four flashpoints that may unsettle booming stock markets in the coming year:

"Global equities rallied after the International Monetary Fund cut the global growth outlook to 3.2 per cent in 2019, which would be the lowest growth rate in a decade."

In 2008, the financial system teetered on the brink of collapse. It was a crisis triggered by a catastrophic debt build-up in America's housing market that, once it burst, infected the US and the global banking system.

Ultimately, the contagion and fear was contained. But the underlying problems were never really addressed, let alone solved. They were merely papered over with vast amounts of extra debt created out of thin air.

Remarkably, central banks since then have managed to avoid yet another debt-inspired meltdown by sending interest rates to zero and then negative territory.

What they now most fear is another financial market implosion that could spill over and cripple the real economy. But as they've demonstrated time and again, they will stop at nothing to avoid one.

How long can this state of suspended animation continue, where supposedly free markets are so easily manipulated? Investors appear to have become lulled into believing it will continue indefinitely.

More here > https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07...t-may-unsettle-booming-stock-markets/11354772

 

[qldfrog]

We are still far from the end of year

 

[lusk]

We are still far from the end of year

We haven't hit the euphoria (bitcoin) stage yet either.

 

[qldfrog]

We will go thru 7000 just on that magic number euphoria IMHO
Ok with it,but by January 2020, we could be in a very different way,

statistically, like death, the longer you live the sooner you die

 

[PZ99]

Down 358 points since last update - or around 5%...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-15/asx-tumbles-on-us-recession-fears/11416348

 

[PZ99]

Scandal-plagued Westpac is the nation’s second largest bank in a sector that dominates the equities market, but this hasn’t restricted the indices from reaching record highs in a year of overall positive gains.

The ASX top 200 companies pushed higher throughout the morning and reached its highest point in history at midday, up 0.4 per cent on Wednesday’s close to 6878.7 points at 1200, while the all ordinaries was at record high of its own, 0.40 per cent higher to 6978.7 points.

“It’s clearly not the financials that are really driving up the gains that we’re seeing, they’re still underperforming,” CMC Markets’ chief market strategist Michael McCarthy told news.com.au.

“The highs that we’re seeing have come despite the financial sector remaining under pressure.”

Burman chief investment officer Julia Lee said the Aussie market has surged 26.2 per cent higher in 2019, driven by assurances from the Reserve Bank of Australia that a lower trajectory for rates will continue into 2020.

“Those lower rates help to support asset values, we’ve seen that in terms of the property market and we’re certainly seeing that in terms of the share market as well,” she told news.com.au.

Ms Lee says global growth entering its late cycle has also been a positive for shares, as the doom period that has weighed on economies around the world edges closer to an end.

“When we have a look at key data coming out of the US it has been increasingly positive and last night was a great example where we saw the US stock market reaching all-time record highs and (GDP) data came in ahead of expectation,” she said.

Today’s rise is credited to telco staple Telstra which jumped nearly 2.7 per cent as well as another jump from market darling CSL, with the biotechnology company lifting 1.2 per cent by midday.

Mining giant BHP was up 0.69 per cent to $38.615, Rio Tinto was up 0.62 per cent to $97.60 and Fortescue Metals was flat at $9.785.

The big four banks were mixed, with ANZ down 0.22 per cent to $25.005, Commonwealth Bank up 0.20 per cent to $81.85, NAB up 0.42 per cent to $26.29 and Westpac eked out a gain of 0.14 per cent to $24.845.

More here > https://www.news.com.au/finance/mar...l/news-story/01eaa062ad4bcf0ace8d25628afd11c4

 

[Logique]

Congratulations to Triple B on what surely now must be the winning tip for 2019.

For 2020, I'm tipping 7,500

 

[Bill M]

We still got Monday and Tuesday to go. Trump might say something stupid and it could drop 300 points but yeah seems like Triple B has it.

 

[qldfrog]

Amazing how long it has been trying but failing to go thru the 7000 this year, was at 6900 eons ago and lingered there for 6 months basically
Another year wo the big crash...

 

[Cam019]

Another year wo the big crash...

I hate to say it, but unlikely you'll see it in 2020 either, in my opinion. With the continued rise in index investing combined with the historically low interest rates on bank accounts, TD's and the like.. there are not too many places you can 'safely' put your money apart from equities and get a return that should keep up with inflation.

Additionally, there are a growing number of retirees (who do not read PDS's), who think the share market is too risky (see volatile) who are 'yield chasing' in products that they think are government guaranteed, like a TD or a bank account. In actual fact, the companies are basically vertically integrated ABS providers. Check out this link (scroll about 2/3 of the way down and you will see that over 58% of the loans provided by this company are effectively to borrowers who may have difficulty meeting their repayment schedules).

 

[qldfrog]

honestly, i believe you are right, no crash until Trump reelection.but in term of risk management, it is very unwise to risk a 30/40% fall for a 5% annual gain

 

[qldfrog]

I hate to say it, but unlikely you'll see it in 2020 either, in my opinion. With the continued rise in index investing combined with the historically low interest rates on bank accounts, TD's and the like.. there are not too many places you can 'safely' put your money apart from equities and get a return that should keep up with inflation.

Additionally, there are a growing number of retirees (who do not read PDS's), who think the share market is too risky (see volatile) who are 'yield chasing' in products that they think are government guaranteed, like a TD or a bank account. In actual fact, the companies are basically vertically integrated ABS providers. Check out this link (scroll about 2/3 of the way down and you will see that over 58% of the loans provided by this company are effectively to borrowers who may have difficulty meeting their repayment schedules).

interesting link, I am not even exposed (yet) to these even as marketing:

Investor can not say they are not warned: see the needle there
But I have a small amount in rate setter which I consider as high risk

 

[Logique]

I don't see a market crash in a US Presidential Election year. Not with such a market-savvy incumbent..

 

[rederob]

We still got Monday and Tuesday to go. Trump might say something stupid and it could drop 300 points but yeah seems like Triple B has it.

I rang Donald and said “I would like you to do me a favour” and he said “no wuckers” so there’s going to be a fall of some 400 points on Monday.

#makerederobdawinna

 

[kid hustlr]

This thread is a example of leaning against the crowd. Are we doing a 2020

 

[greggles]

Are we doing a 2020

If we are, put me down for 6050. 2020 is going to be the year that the chickens come home to roost.

 

[Bill M]

This thread is a example of leaning against the crowd. Are we doing a 2020

We sure are mate, I'll collate it, no worries. Maybe @PZ99 might do the Monthly updates if he wants too as well.

 

[peter2]

2020: A roller coaster year with the XAO ending up at 7887.

 

[Knobby22]

2020, bullish, but probably final good year 7677.

 

[Bill M]

I don't see a market crash in a US Presidential Election year. Not with such a market-savvy incumbent..

Since 1928 there has been 23 Presidential Election Years. Out of 23 only 4 have been negative with 2008 being the last one. During that year the S&P 500 lost -37%. From 1944 through to 1996 there were no negative years.

With odds looking like that I'd be betting on an up year next year.
Source: https://www.thebalance.com/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-returns-2388526