Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

[divs4ever]

Finished at 7221.

Send the roast chook to my joint @Joe Blow

Bad luck @Gunnerguy, was a close race, to the end.

View attachment 151052

i don't know a about a dinner ( for me )

i just got roasted ( missed by more than 1500 points )

congratulations to the closest pair ( SeanK and Gunnerguy )

nicely done



i will try to get within 1,400 points next year ?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Most of us were quite "free range", in our punts

 

[wayneL]

Are we doing this again for 2023? I want I want to roll my prediction out 12 months

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Yep. And got to include the 5 word summary.

Here's mine:
7850 - recessions are good for markets

 

[Sean K]

Are we doing this again for 2023? I want I want to roll my prediction out 12 months

My picks were for 2023 as well.

 

[frugal.rock]

2023 Pick;
8333 "Choppy until the bull arrives"

 

[Gunnerguy]

I will do as last year. Wait till all guesses are in, remove the 2 high and 2 low outliers, and average the rest. See statistics do work .....

 

[frugal.rock]

See statistics do work ....

3 sigma rule ?

 

[Bill M]

Here is the final list of predictions as to where the XAO All Ords index will end up by year end 2022.


wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rationality returning, but higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
PZ99....................7000....inflation will be the impetus for a correction.......Third
Sean K.................7200....going for something in between.............................First
Gunnerguy.........7300....Slow, steady, bumps, and a final rise to 7300........Second
Dona Ferentes.........7890....Up down and all around
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
Iggy_Pop...................8189....steady rise with a bit of volatility
Garpal Gumnut.......8200....following the long term trend up
DrBourse..................8347....That is based heavily on TA
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
shaka........................8600....looks like it's still trending up
frugal.rock...............8777....A dartboard throw, surely not?
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
Cam019....................9000....Weekly squeeeeeeze
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet

Well done Sean K, pretty good guess there mate.

 

[Bill M]

For 2023, a new thread with the year in the title perhaps. I could dig out a garden gnome if a prize?? would encourage entries.

That sounds like a great idea. I am going to step aside from this as I don't visit this site much these days, sometimes for Months. So if you would like to run it, please go ahead and I'll thrown in my best guess. I kind I live a very simple quiet retired life these days only investing in 2 ETF's within my super and a few capital notes outside of super. With the ongoing war in Europe which could be getting worse and high inflation I am surprised the market has held up this well.

When you can pull 4.55% interest with an online savings account with a so called "government guarantee" I got a gut feeling a lot of older people might start selling off a lot more of their stocks to chase stress free interest income. I myself have sold down some of my ETF's and made some tidy profits and put the proceeds in 1 year term deposits at 4.35%. Should the market ever have that crash I'll be topping up as I always have done in the past, cheers.

 

[Smurf1976]

When you can pull 4.55% interest with an online savings account with a so called "government guarantee" I got a gut feeling a lot of older people might start selling off a lot more of their stocks to chase stress free interest income.

That right there is a very important comment I think in light of recent and present financial market trends.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

That sounds like a great idea. I am going to step aside from this as I don't visit this site much these days ... So if you would like to run it, please go ahead and I'll thrown in my best guess. ..., cheers.

Am happy to compile the entries ... there doesn't seem to be any spreadsheet or running calculation needed, just a tally of, and, playing to my inner megalomaniac, absolute discretion over entries, so I'll give it a go.

In order to get numbers up, let's keep entries open till the second half of January, like the 2022 comp. I'll do a tally next Friday, and the weekend following, with a CLOSE at midnight on Sunday 15 January.

And thanks for your comments in the post. Gold Star stuff.

 

[Bill M]

Am happy to compile the entries ... there doesn't seem to be any spreadsheet or running calculation needed, just a tally of, and, playing to my inner megalomaniac, absolute discretion over entries, so I'll give it a go.

In order to get numbers up, let's keep entries open till the second half of January, like the 2022 comp. I'll do a tally next Friday, and the weekend following, with a CLOSE at midnight on Sunday 15 January.

And thanks for your comments in the post. Gold Star stuff.

It all sounds great, looking forward to it and your way will no doubt look much more tidy than mine, cheers.

 

[divs4ever]

i will go for

5600 using the ' broken clock system '

the extra 50 points is to allow for 'inflation' under the current 'metrics' i was going to suggest ' with a pinch of salt ' ( for the number ) but that would be tough to compare to other entries

good luck everyone

 

[Logique2]

Quite the finish this year, right down to the last trading day, well done Sean K.

For 2023:
7,700 Swings and Roundabouts. Bargain hunters.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Am happy to...give it a go.

In order to get numbers up, let's keep entries open till the second half of January, like the 2022 comp. I'll do a tally next Friday, and the weekend following, with a CLOSE at midnight on Sunday 15 January.

But there again, with @Gunnerguy employing such nefarious tactics ?, I could be like ASX and close randomly.

........
✌ Five beers please, asked the Roman

 

[peter2]

For 2023 - 6950 Yes, another losing year.

After a 10% dip early in the year, RBA pause rates near 5%, retirees sell a portion of their shares to take the 5 - 6% term deposit rates. The XAO slowly moves higher in the second half as our banks profit from the higher rates and commodities are still in demand.

China struggles with their pandemic, US struggles with their depression, ASX struggles as the rest of the world is struggling. I won't be borrowing money at 9-10% to try and earn more in the stock market. I'm with @Bill M re the TDs.

 

[Craton]

Geez, this is one I've avoided as it is just in the "too hard" basket mainly, that I'm a layman but primarily due to so many unknowns and curve balls that life chucks at us over the course of 12 months.

ATM and with so many over-arching factors weighing on the market e.g.:
Inflation
Rising interest rates
The big R word aka recession
The Ukranian conflict (and possible escalation thereof)
Commodity cycles
Natural disasters (floods/fires/etc)
A non election year in the USA
Covid restrictions easing
China muscle flexing
Falling property prices
Lower dividends
Current All Ords downtrend
A major correction aka distribution
Some future unknown shock
...so on and so foreth.

That list does not bode well IMHO and a retraction to 4910 (or even lower into the high 3k's) then a bounce back is on the cards.
Thus indeed, what will the All Ords number be at the end of 2023?
My best guess: 6277 (+/- 500)

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

When is the last day and time to enter the 2023 yearly comp?

I got a new set of darts for Christmas and am having difficulty opening up the plastic container.

gg

 

[frugal.rock]

When is the last day and time to enter the 2023 yearly comp?

In order to get numbers up, let's keep entries open till the second half of January, like the 2022 comp. I'll do a tally next Friday, and the weekend following, with a CLOSE at midnight on Sunday 15 January.

I could be like ASX and close randomly.