Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

[rcw1]

not really ,

but increased dividends cheer me up , or in some cases when the share prices drop and dividends hold firm ( and i can add more at a fair price )

Hello divs4ever
there is one thing better than making coin... even better than dividends.. three letters ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Have a good day today.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[divs4ever]

Hello divs4ever
there is one thing better than making coin... even better than dividends.. three letters ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Have a good day today.

Kind regards
rcw1

it is going sideways so far , but you never know when a silver-lining will appear

have a good day , yourself

 

[Craton]

Just a few more

I probably have mentioned this elsewhere in the past but a few things I failed to note in my prediction list of impacts on the ASX (and generally across the global markets) in 2023:

Continued constrained fertilizer supply
The above will probably lead to massive food shortages in particular, rice which is the primary food energy/stable for over half the world's population and very fertilizer intensive.
With Russia's leader too committed in claiming Ukrainian land, I can't see an end anytime soon to this senseless war. How long will it take for Ukraine to again be able to export much needed wheat et al for the starving millions?
Sanctions of Russia has impacted this large supplier of fertilizer product.

Demographics - started a few years ago, globally the Boomers are retiring and liquidating stocks/assets for conservative income streams. With higher interest rates along with risk aversion, moving more cash to Term Deposits probably already started.
Population imbalance e.g.: China/Russia/Japan/Germany to name a few. Who's gonna take care of us oldies, who's going to replace high skilled jobs?
Thus, a labour shortage is leading to higher wages pushing up inflationary pressures.

Ban on imports of high and mid tier chip manufacturing, s/ware and expertise to China. Low tier chips not affected e.g.: IoT but the ban further impacted by China's increasing wage costs pushing up the cost of goods.
Also the neon supply issue critical for high end chip manufacture is severally impacted.

We all know too well that energy is needed for the goods and services we consume and for our comfy lifestyles. We also know that the Ukrainian conflict has put a huge spanner into this space. Despite China buying Russian energy at record levels, this doesn't help the West.

I think the ASX will be blown around a lot more by world events in 2023, moreso than what will happen here locally. Further, I think the world in now a vastly different place than 12 months ago and it may take years, or even decades before we return to an semblance of the "good ol' days".
Stock picking just got that little bit harder...

Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/) makes for an interesting resource across many topics.

 

[divs4ever]

Demographics - started a few years ago, globally the Boomers are retiring and liquidating stocks/assets for conservative income streams. With higher interest rates along with risk aversion, moving more cash to Term Deposits probably already started.
Population imbalance e.g.: China/Russia/Japan/Germany to name a few. Who's gonna take care of us oldies, who's going to replace high skilled jobs?
Thus, a labour shortage is leading to higher wages pushing up inflationary pressures.

well the THEORY IS

a lot of workers will be replaced by automation ( i hope the regiments of 'public servants' understand that because they are in the front-line for the chop, they are too heavy a load on the income collection system and pension system )

they will try to fill the gap with migrants in the West , it will go badly ( even though some plan to collapse the global economy , and the middle class )

several decades ago i saw that eventually they will breed a 'worker-species ' of humanoid ( it's just how the elites think , nothing new ) and that will destroy human civilization as we know it

the BIG question is will the move to CBDCs succeed or fail , if it succeeds all you have is a slave regulation system ( they can't control their power-addiction , now the craving will be worse later ) if it fails that signifies the trust in government and currency is GONE

now a second question is when will the (CBDC ) result be known

 

[Craton]

well the THEORY IS

a lot of workers will be replaced by automation ( i hope the regiments of 'public servants' understand that because they are in the front-line for the chop, they are too heavy a load on the income collection system and pension system )

Automation can't replace critical thinking and high skilled jobs nor those that need F2F (Face2Face) case by case interaction IMHO.

they will try to fill the gap with migrants in the West , it will go badly ( even though some plan to collapse the global economy , and the middle class )

The global economy IS in collapse thanks to Putin's stupidity!

several decades ago i saw that eventually they will breed a 'worker-species ' of humanoid ( it's just how the elites think , nothing new ) and that will destroy human civilization as we know it

The so called "worker-species" have always been bred. My dearly departed old man was one such creature.
He had the opportunity in the mid '60's to relocate to Cronulla and become a manger within the then Public Works office. All relocation fees paid, a home provided that he could pay off interest free, twice the wage and a car provided. Mom loved the opportunity as she had immigrated family in that very locale.
Nope. We didn't move because my old man's work ethic was, go to work, go home, get paid with no further worries.

I often wonder how much different my life would have been had we moved from the far west of NSW to the "big smoke". In a way, I'm glad we didn't because, after living there (in Sydney) for ten years, city life is like an ants nest. Although I guess I'd be a surfie instead of a bushie, lol.

the BIG question is will the move to CBDCs succeed or fail , if it succeeds all you have is a slave regulation system ( they can't control their power-addiction , now the craving will be worse later ) if it fails that signifies the trust in government and currency is GONE

now a second question is when will the (CBDC ) result be known

CBDC I am assuming is the Central Bank Digital Currency.
This is interesting and problematic but no doubt will occur as the use of actual hard cash further declines.
Several countries already have their own CBDC.

How that pans out for those that don't have access to all things Internet will probably mean we'll be chucking up more satellites so they do.
More satellites means "big bro." is getting so much more in our faces!
But hey, that's progress right?
I'd say one always has two choices, use the system to one's advantage or not.

 

[houtman]

Strange times,

I can easily argue up or down, as there are so many variables atm,
So I used a random number generator, parameters 6000-8000.

It came up with 6178

Who am I to argue!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

With the year 2022 ending at 7222 for the XAO All Ordinaries, here are current entries for full CY2023.
Comp closes late Sunday 15th Jan.

rcw1 .................... 8567 - 1637 Dutch tulip mania NOT
qldfrog ................ 8400 - collapse then rebound plus some
Frugal.rock ......... 8333 - choppy until the bull arrives
greggles .............. 8090 - downside limited, commodities will boom
Dona F.................. 7850 - recessions are good for markets
Logique2 ............. 7700 - Swings and Roundabouts. Bargain hunters
Sean K ................. 7400 - Something like the 2016 recovery.
Knobby22 ........... 7223 - A lot can go wrong
UMike.................. 7175 - Going to be tough year
Peter2 ................. 6950 - yes, another losing year
Smurf1976 ......... 6624 - No great disaster but general gloom
macca...................6543 - double bottom as future resistance
Craton ................. 6277 - My best guess (+/- 500)
houtman ............. 6178 - Who am I to argue!
Bill M .................... 5995 - War, Inflation, interest rates up
KevinBB ............... 5958 - As reluctant as I am ...
divs4eva ............... 5600 - using the 'broken clock system'
wayneL ................. 4867 - same as for last year
rcw1 ..................... 1637 - Dutch tulip mania*

* allowing 2 entries.

Automation can't replace critical thinking and high skilled jobs nor those that need F2F (Face2Face) case by case interaction IMHO.


The global economy IS in collapse thanks to Putin's stupidity!

The so called "worker-species" have always been bred. My dearly departed old man was one such creature.
He had the opportunity in the mid '60's to relocate to Cronulla and become a manger within the then Public Works office. All relocation fees paid, a home provided that he could pay off interest free, twice the wage and a car provided. Mom loved the opportunity as she had immigrated family in that very locale.
Nope. We didn't move because my old man's work ethic was, go to work, go home, get paid with no further worries.

I often wonder how much different my life would have been had we moved from the far west of NSW to the "big smoke". In a way, I'm glad we didn't because, after living there (in Sydney) for ten years, city life is like an ants nest. Although I guess I'd be a surfie instead of a bushie, lol.

CBDC I am assuming is the Central Bank Digital Currency.
This is interesting and problematic but no doubt will occur as the use of actual hard cash further declines.
Several countries already have their own CBDC.

How that pans out for those that don't have access to all things Internet will probably mean we'll be chucking up more satellites so they do.
More satellites means "big bro." is getting so much more in our faces!
But hey, that's progress right?
I'd say one always has two choices, use the system to one's advantage or not.

So, @Craton, a five word summary?

 

[wayneL]

With the year 2022 ending at 7222 for the XAO All Ordinaries, here are current entries for full CY2023.
Comp closes late Sunday 15th Jan.

rcw1 .................... 8567 - 1637 Dutch tulip mania NOT
qldfrog ................ 8400 - collapse then rebound plus some
Frugal.rock ......... 8333 - choppy until the bull arrives
greggles .............. 8090 - downside limited, commodities will boom
Dona F.................. 7850 - recessions are good for markets
Logique2 ............. 7700 - Swings and Roundabouts. Bargain hunters
Sean K ................. 7400 - Something like the 2016 recovery.
Knobby22 ........... 7223 - A lot can go wrong
UMike.................. 7175 - Going to be tough year
Peter2 ................. 6950 - yes, another losing year
Smurf1976 ......... 6624 - No great disaster but general gloom
macca...................6543 - double bottom as future resistance
Craton ................. 6277 - My best guess (+/- 500)
houtman ............. 6178 - Who am I to argue!
Bill M .................... 5995 - War, Inflation, interest rates up
KevinBB ............... 5958 - As reluctant as I am ...
divs4eva ............... 5600 - using the 'broken clock system'
rcw1 ..................... 1637 - Dutch tulip mania*

* allowing 2 entries.

So, @Craton, a five word summary?

You missed mine, which was the same number as for 2022

 

[Dona Ferentes]

You missed mine, which was the same number as for 2022

Got it in ... within the 15 minute edit. Any change to the 5 word narrative?

 

[Craton]

So, @Craton, a five word summary?

Fortune telling, a mug's game.

 

[wayneL]

Got it in ... within the 15 minute edit. Any change to the 5 word narrative?

Hero or zero

 

[Dona Ferentes]

And the 'spurts have gleaned a narrower range.
NOTE: it's ASX200 so there's about 200 pts difference, with XAO being higher.

S&P/ASX 200 Index 2023 year-end price targets (pts)​

AMP ........................7600
JPMorgan ...............7400
MST Marquee ........7400
UBS .........................7250
Morgan Stanley......7200
RBC CapMarkets ...7200
Credit Suisse ..........6700

timid bunch, nobody is really going out on a limb.

 

[divs4ever]

Automation can't replace critical thinking and high skilled jobs nor those that need F2F (Face2Face) case by case interaction IMHO.

LOL , critical thinking is now a dangerous extremist philosophy ( unless you are talking about race ) everything else they will fake with AI , wait and see

The global economy IS in collapse thanks to Putin's stupidity!

i disagree the economy broke in September 2019 and everything else has been a distraction while the rescue packages have been dished out to selected buddies ( like Boeing )

Craton :
CBDC I am assuming is the Central Bank Digital Currency.

yes your are correct

cheers

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Less than a week before 2023 comp entries close.

Yearly XAO Prediction Thread​

rcw1 .................... 8567 - 1637 Dutch tulip mania NOT
qldfrog ................ 8400 - collapse then rebound plus some
Frugal.rock ......... 8333 - choppy until the bull arrives
greggles .............. 8090 - downside limited, commodities will boom
Dona F.................. 7850 - recessions are good for markets
Logique2 ............. 7700 - Swings and Roundabouts. Bargain hunters
Sean K ................. 7400 - Something like the 2016 recovery.
Knobby22 ........... 7223 - A lot can go wrong
UMike................... 7175 - Going to be tough year
Peter2 .................. 6950 - yes, another losing year
Smurf1976 .......... 6624 - No great disaster but general gloom
macca....................6543 - double bottom as future resistance
Craton .................. 6277 - Fortune telling, a mug's game
houtman .............. 6178 - Who am I to argue!
Bill M ..................... 5995 - War, Inflation, interest rates up
KevinBB ................ 5958 - As reluctant as I am ...
divs4eva ................ 5600 - using the 'broken clock system'
wayneL .................. 4867 - Hero or Zero

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

10946.

A Fibonnaci number from a contrarian.

gg

 

[hopeing]

Hi, 8950 for me . Who doth knows.
Looked at monthly chart and thought obtainable, also see a much lower number obtainable, flipped a coin an up it is.

 

[debtfree]

I better have a shot at this Comp, please put me down for 7550 thanks @Dona Ferentes. Brief thoughts why: 68.98% of the highest pick.
Plenty of gaps (in red) left for others to have a go, grab a spot before it closes.
I couldn't fit GG in the screenshot

 

[divs4ever]

wayneL .................. 4867 - Hero or Zero

wayneL will be my hero if he is correct

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I better have a shot at this Comp, please put me down for 7550 thanks @Dona Ferentes. Brief thoughts why: 68.98% of the highest pick.

?

Plenty of gaps (in red) left for others to have a go, grab a spot before it closes.

36 entries in the monthly, 33 in the yearly stockpick comp; maybe the reticent are awaiting a cash prize?

I couldn't fit GG in the screenshot

Yup, we try to accommodate him.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Using my Fibonacci Extension Indicator i'll go conservative and Target 9,000 for this year

Sailing the XAO for2023 ___ One Month at a Time