Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

[wayneL]

4867

It's still a blinkin' long way off, but the momentum is right.... Who knows? ?‍

 

[Sean K]

It's still a blinkin' long way off, but the momentum is right.... Who knows? ?‍

Found support at 6600 but could it hold a third time? Or, double bottom...

 

[divs4ever]

Found support at 6600 but could it hold a third time? Or, double bottom...


View attachment 147873

can it hold after the ( US ) mid-term results are known ??

with three potential outcomes ( Dems keep the status quo , Republicans win but mostly RINOs ie almost the same as a Dem win , or the Populists light a fire in the Republicans and therefore in the both houses of government )

edge of your seat entertainment awaits ( grab some popcorn , or better still some rice crackers as i hold SGLLV )

 

[gartley]

It's still a blinkin' long way off, but the momentum is right.... Who knows? ?‍

After the pandemic low it broke through the red and blue offsets for the Nominal 4 year cycle thus giving an upside projection ( upper yellow rectangle) which was met. Market has been moving down since. IF and depending where it breaks through these offsets again ( it's not far off maybe at 6000) it will undoubtedly give a new projection testing the pandemic lows. But there is a problem here for the bulls in the longer term. Once the projection is met it may result in a good tradeable rally lasting a while, my guess all of next year. However in doing so it also sets up a new projection off the 8 year cycle at around 5000 resulting in crazy ultimate low near the GFC low. Labelling the move down from the peak red wave 1 the expected counter trend rally 2 and then the killer wave 3 longer term, OR an ABC pattern, doesn't matter as they both imply the same result.

Ofcourse if the 8 year cycle projection is given there is nothing to say it doesn't keep going down after with minimal rally, but I doubt it.

My 2c worth is this bear market be a will long one and not end until we longer term ULTIMATELY we test the GFC lows especially given the magnitude and duration of the advance of this 40 year bull market that preceded it...

 

[brerwallabi]

Whenever something crosses the line it does signify it is going to go somewhere.
Where?

 

[peter2]

Three months later and the XAO still remains in the gap between GG and DF. A Santa rally will take it closer to DF.

 

[Logique2]

Bill M. and Dona F. are the joint favourites for mine

 

[Sean K]

2 weeks to go, @Gunnerguy looking good.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I'd forgotten about this piece of whimsy (I have a wide range of choice).

For 2023, a new thread with the year in the title perhaps. I could dig out a garden gnome if a prize?? would encourage entries.

 

[divs4ever]

actually i was thinking Sean K looked a chance ( and not because he is mod )

7200 at the end of the month after the Xmas rush looks possible ( with the market easing due to mostly retail participation after the Xmas break )

 

[qldfrog]

actually i was thinking Sean K looked a chance ( and not because he is mod )

7200 at the end of the month after the Xmas rush looks possible ( with the market easing due to mostly retail participation after the Xmas break )

And after the coming few days fall..7200 maybe indeed

 

[Dona Ferentes]

And after the coming few days fall..7200 maybe indeed

Looking as if Santa won't be rallying.

And not too many trading days till EOY

 

[divs4ever]

my memory could be hazy but the Santa Rally was rather late last year and there seems to be some derivative expiry dates to negotiate ( today and Monday , Monday being the reaction to international markets overnight )

one would think some fund managers would be winding down trading activities next week and unlikely to be very active until late January

if i am correct on the BIG money easing back on activities , i would imagine the bigger traders would also reduce trading activity in the lighter markets

 

[Sean K]

actually i was thinking Sean K looked a chance ( and not because he is mod )

7200 at the end of the month after the Xmas rush looks possible ( with the market easing due to mostly retail participation after the Xmas break )

Only 9 trading days left, I'm a chance, but I hope not. @Gunnerguy might nail it at 7300.

 

[divs4ever]

i watch overall share volume over the day's trading for the last 3 months and with a couple of exceptions i am NOT impressed

add in the effects of buy-backs and i wonder who is buying ( much ) given the trends towards ETFs i suspect a fair bit of turn-over is churn by market-makers

now today might be a biggie ( turnover-wise ) but what of the next two weeks ??

will the investors hold or take some profits and get ahead of the post-Xmas bills

 

[Sean K]

i watch overall share volume over the day's trading for the last 3 months and with a couple of exceptions i am NOT impressed

add in the effects of buy-backs and i wonder who is buying ( much ) given the trends towards ETFs i suspect a fair bit of turn-over is churn by market-makers

Some punters who normally buy individual shares might be using ETFs now but I think most of the ETF traffic might be from people switching from managed funds. Just a guess.

 

[wayneL]

Is there a prize for the wooden spoon, apart from a wooden spoon?

 

[Sean K]

Is there a prize for the wooden spoon, apart from a wooden spoon?

Bragging rights?

Or, maybe Joe could put a little wooden spoon next to your name under your avatar?

 

[divs4ever]

Bragging rights?

Or, maybe Joe could put a little wooden spoon next to your

wouldn't that confuse the newer members

between the award winners and the resident stirrers ??

 

[wayneL]

wouldn't that confuse the newer members

between the award winners and the resident stirrers ??

Stirrer? I'm offended. I'll have you that that there was some serious analysis about what level I wanted it to be... PE 8, 15% divvies (fully franked of course)

And please, do not employ any racist mathematical analysis to the above... As Monsieur Foucault has taught, truth is relative... And I can employ any sort of mathematical truths I feel like using.

As a matter of fact on December 31st I will identify as having the ASX at... whatever ridiculous number I pluck out of my backside (I can't actually remember lol).

Indeed, I will identify as the ASX at that point will be precisely the same as whatever number I said.

And once again, none of that racist cis mathematics please.