Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

[fergee]

5898, five words is not enough

 

[Smurf1976]

7015 - I used to live in that postcode and it's a plausible enough target.

Given that I now live in a postcode starting with 5, better we see the ASX target the old one than the new I think.

 

[Bill M]

The tea leaves told me 7515

I will continue to take the low end of the range please Bill, 3300 please

7718, strong, then weak, then strong.

5898, five words is not enough

7015 - I used to live in that postcode and it's a plausible enough target.

Given that I now live in a postcode starting with 5, better we see the ASX target the old one than the new I think.

All added, thank you.

The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - 2 will "harmonise" the prediction

 

[Knobby22]

Last year, so many bears...this year so many bulls.

 

[rederob]

Last year, so many bears...this year so many bulls.

A possible reason last year was a big shift out of cash because the returns were so low.
The thing is, that trend has a chance of repeating this year as well because even market dogs are delivering more returns than interest rates.
So were I more sensible in my forecast to begin, then I would reckon the markets should have no problem adding 10% by year's end.
Presently we crazies forecasting >8000 might be well served by the commodities sector as a whole which has been relatively lacklustre for some years.
@sptrawler's rationale relates to a good trade deal outcome and if that is the case then global manufacturing should uptick.
The sleeper in this mix remains the pending EV evolution which we are wrongly thinking of as a revolution. When you see all the car showrooms sporting lots of EV options then you will know the tide has truly turned.
Like those kids in the back seat keep asking as you head off to your favourite holiday spot "are we there yet?"

 

[gartley]

5400 US markets will finally dump

 

[jbocker]

6007 this is my post code. (these were my 5 words)
I am applying the Smurf Theory this year.

Other than that this stuff to me is Too hazy I am definitely Too Lazy and some say Too Crazy to think this one through.
Thanks Bill M on reflection I think these ARE my 5 words Too hazy, crazy and lazy are more appropriate. the first 2 (hazy and crazy) can apply to the index the last applies just to me

Love this comp too Bill M.

 

[rederob]

Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
(Applying the 5 word rule retrospectively .)

 

[Bill M]

5400 US markets will finally dump

6007 this is my post code. (these were my 5 words)
I am applying the Smurf Theory this year.

Other than that this stuff to me is Too hazy I am definitely Too Lazy and some say Too Crazy to think this one through.
Thanks Bill M on reflection I think these ARE my 5 words Too hazy, crazy and lazy are more appropriate. the first 2 (hazy and crazy) can apply to the index the last applies just to me

Love this comp too Bill M.

Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
(Applying the 5 word rule retrospectively .)

All added, thank you.

The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!

 

[Nateone]

7500

 

[PZ99]

We sure are mate, I'll collate it, no worries. Maybe @PZ99 might do the Monthly updates if he wants too as well.

Happy to run those updates

How did you guys do it? What made you both pick 6800? Or was it just a punt? I'm sure everyone would like to know.

Given where the XAO was a week ago it was a first class fluke for me

Although many predicted a down turn in 2019 I took the view we already had it in late 2018 and a recovery was on the cards.

This year who knows? Not me. So I'll go for another 6800 in 2020 based on more of the same economic indicators

 

[Iggy_Pop]

7170, It will all be good

Iggy

 

[Bill M]

7500

This year who knows? Not me. So I'll go for another 6800 in 2020 based on more of the same economic indicators

7170, It will all be good

Iggy

All added, thank you.

The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
PZ99..................6800 - The same economic indicators
Iggy_Pop............7170 - It will all be good
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Nateone.............7500
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!

 

[Bill M]

Happy to run those updates

Thanks mate, much appreciated.

 

[Bill M]

We got 31 entries so far. Closes next Sunday the 12th @ Midnight. Please keep sending your entries in, thank you.

 

[lusk]

Will go large with 8700. This year everyone piles in.

Just checked and got last years prediction correct with PZ99 it was just a guess, picked high as too many bearish at the time.
The bull run keeps going but we haven't reached the euphoria stage yet where everyone gets in so maybe this year it happens and we get a big run before it ends.

 

[Bill M]

Will go large with 8700. This year everyone piles in.

Just checked and got last years prediction correct with PZ99 it was just a guess, picked high as too many bearish at the time.
The bull run keeps going but we haven't reached the euphoria stage yet where everyone gets in so maybe this year it happens and we get a big run before it ends.

Hi lusk, welcome back, I have added yours also. Good luck!

The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
PZ99..................6800 - The same economic indicators
Iggy_Pop............7170 - It will all be good
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Nateone.............7500
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
lusk....................8700 - This year everyone piles in

 

[Dona Ferentes]

live in NSW gawdelpus (but ex-Tassie)
7250

 

[Bill M]

live in NSW gawdelpus (but ex-Tassie)
7250

Added, thank you. Keep them coming folks.

The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
PZ99..................6800 - The same economic indicators
Iggy_Pop............7170 - It will all be good
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
Dona Ferentes.....7250 - live in NSW gawdelpus
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Nateone.............7500
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
lusk....................8700 - This year everyone piles in

 

[jjbinks]

8400.
Another 20% year!!