Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

jjbinks said:

8400.
Another 20% year!!

Click to expand...

Added, thank you. Keep them coming folks.

The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
PZ99..................6800 - The same economic indicators
Iggy_Pop............7170 - It will all be good
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
Dona Ferentes.....7250 - live in NSW gawdelpus
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Nateone.............7500
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
jjbinks................8400 - Another 20% year!!
lusk....................8700 - This year everyone piles in

Entries close this Sunday 12th at midnight, get your predictions in!

One day left to get your picks in, thank you.

Closing tonight, anyone else want to have a go? Cheers.

OK, this is the final line up for the year end predictions. Feel free to add commentary through out the year. Good luck everyone and lets hope we have a good year, cheers.

The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
PZ99..................6800 - The same economic indicators
Iggy_Pop............7170 - It will all be good
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
Dona Ferentes.....7250 - live in NSW gawdelpus
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Nateone.............7500
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
jjbinks................8400 - Another 20% year!!
lusk....................8700 - This year everyone piles in

So far so good but expecting a pullback any day now

You weren't wrong Cement!
Feeling very beaten up after this weeks 'Corona-slump', although a ten year chart makes me feel a little better. My tip of 7500 can still happen in theory -but it will need a wriggle on.
Anyway 'Corona-o'clock' I think, the beverage variety

Investors are nervously cowering after widespread falls in local stocks as the market tumbles to losses not seen for more than a decade.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/mar...e/news-story/728c50e2f64e5c5b089e417f4f13e217

At some point in time this market has got to start looking cheap.

Bill M said:

At some point in time this market has got to start looking cheap.

Click to expand...

That is exactly what investment is about Bill, the trick is knowing when, or just nibble away.

900 points down in 8 days and looking like going sub 5k for a while...

MrChow said:

5400 - High Early Low Late

Click to expand...

My 2019 prediction - thought I was completely wrong all year.

Turns out just a timing issue.

A half decent recovery from this morning... https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/asx-set-dive-wall-st-rally-fades-211626081--spt.html

ASX plunges as big banks dive at the open

The Australian share market has plunged at the open on heavy losses for the big banks after an APRA suggestion to suspend their dividends and a downgrade to their credit ratings.

The S&P/ASX200 benchmark index fell 90.2 points, or 1.72 per cent, to 5,162.1 points in the first 30 minutes of trade on Wednesday as only the consumer staples sector remained in the black.

The All Ordinaries index shed 86.7 points, or 1.64 per cent, to 5,214.6.

Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, ANZ and NAB were down by between 3.01 per cent and 4.41 per cent as they moved to reassure investors they were well capitalised after the prudential watchdog said they should "seriously consider" suspending their dividends until there was more certainty about the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

Fitch also downgraded the big banks to A+ from AA- to reflect the agency's expectations of a significant economic shock in 1H20 due to measures taken to halt the spread of the coronavirus.

Macquarie Group shares dropped 2.65 per cent to $90, while Bank of Queensland fell 5.25 per cent to $4.87 after heeding APRA's advice and deferring its first-half dividend.

The bank's decision came as BOQ reported a 10 per cent drop in cash earnings to $151 million for the first half of 2020.

For the miners, Rio Tinto fell 2.1 per cent to $88.75 and BHP dropped 1.51 per cent to $31.22.

Fortescue Metals lost 0.88 per cent to $11.32 and goldminers Newcrest, Northern Star and Evolution were mixed on softening precious metals prices.

Property firms also took an early hit, with Stockland, Goodman, Dexus, GPT Group, Vicinity Centres swaying between flat and a loss of 2.34 per cent at 1030 AEST.

Scentre, which is holding its AGM on Wednesday, was down 2.57 per cent.

Those falls come after the announcement on Tuesday of a new commercial code of conduct for tenancy agreements that will be regulated by each state and territory.

The code outlines principles for temporary changes to leasing arrangements to help small and medium enterprise tenants who are suffering financial hardship and are eligible for the federal JobKeeper program as a result of their turnover falling or likely to fall by 30 per cent or more.

Meanwhile, Treasury Wine Estate stocks soared 8.8 per cent higher at $11.50 after the company announced plans to demerge and spin off its Penfolds brand.

The Melbourne-based company said the move would create a new ASX top 50-100 company for Penfolds and an ASX 100-150 company for New TWE.

Coles, Woolworths and A2 Milk gained between 0.53 per cent and 0.81 per cent to further boost consumer staples.

Overnight, US stocks built early gains but slipped as oil prices plunged late in the session.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled $US2.45, or 9.4 per cent, lower on Tuesday at $US23.63 a barrel, accelerating their losses late in the day, ahead of weekly US crude oil inventory reports.

Brent crude futures settled at $US31.87 a barrel, losing $US1.18, or 3.6 per cent.

The Australian dollar was buying 61.45 US cents at 1030 AEST, down from 61.84 US cents at the close of markets on Tuesday.

ASX hits one-month high, enters bull market

The Australian sharemarket rose to a one-month high and re-entered a bull market on Tuesday as local shares extended their rebound from heavy falls through February and March.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 100.8 points, or 1.9 per cent, to 5488.1, closing up 20.7 per cent from its March 23 trough and ending its month-long bear market.

The Australian dollar also rose to a one-month high on Tuesday, as the shrinking number of local coronavirus cases improved sentiment on the economy.

"As well as being the antipole of the US dollar – now 4 per off its 23 March peak in Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index terms – Australian dollar outperformance since late last week arguably also owes something to the fact Australia’s COVID-19 curves have bent downwards more sharply than just about any country outside China and which is getting plenty of international attention," said NAB head of FX strategy Ray Attrill.

More here from AFR: (might need a private / incognito window)
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-...month-high-enters-bull-market-20200414-p54jo0

Collapsing oil prices a sign global stocks will fall further...

Investors who had bought stocks hoping the recovery in share markets had begun have been delivered a warning shot through the historic collapse in oil prices this week.

Leading investment experts say the recent healthy bounce in Australian equities is more aligned with the government splashing cash on stimulus packages and not a true reflection of the destructive economic impacts still lingering from the coronavirus pandemic.

The demand for oil has fallen so aggressively due to the inaction of economies the futures index for the commodity recorded its first ever negative reading this week.

This bizarre scenario means sellers were paying buyers to take it off their hands because stockpile facilities across the world are nearly full.

With cars locked in garages and planes grounded on airstrips, too much oil is being produced to justify its use — about 20 million barrels of excess oil is entering the market everyday.

The ASX closed flat after today’s trading but plunged nearly 5 per cent over two sessions on Monday and Tuesday, with investors being warned of more heavy losses to come.

“(The collapse in oil prices) tells me that equities have been buoyed predominantly by stimulus,” Pepperstone head of research Chris Weston told news.com.au.

“It's been liquidity, it’s been central bank action, and it’s been government support but the oil market hasn't been a beneficiary of that stimulus.

“And that’s telling you what life would be like if it wasn't for the government.”

This weakness in commodity prices will make it difficult for energy companies alone to keep their businesses going.

Energy companies alone will struggle to keep their businesses open with this destructive weakness in commodity prices, Mr Weston said.

“The message the oil market is telling us is that we're not going to come out of this in a V-shape recovery,” he said.

“The idea of ramping up and getting back to our daily lives is just not going to happen.

“We're going to see some troubling times for some period ahead, there's going to be quite a few companies that go insolvent from these (oil) levels, which is going to accentuate bad loans and losses in the banking space.”

Burman chief investment officer Julia Lee said Donald Trump’s support for getting business back to normal in the United States despite the country recording more than 2000 deaths a day could further weigh on investor sentiment.

“I don't think the volatility is over yet especially given the US is looking to open up relatively soon, which means the COVID-19 situation could get worse quite quickly before it gets better,” she told news.com.au.

‘ONCE IN A CENTURY’

Westpac’s April market outlook said the health and economic crisis from the coronavirus outbreak was a “once in a century” event.

The major bank is now expecting the Australian economy to suffer three consecutive quarters of retractions.

The report heaps praise, however, on the Federal Government’s fiscal response, revising its expectation for unemployment from 17 per cent down to 9 per cent for the middle of the year due to the eye-watering $130 billion JobKeeper package.

But the positive sentiment drawing from the Morrison Government’s willingness to splash cash won’t last, the report warned.

Australian stocks have surged in value this week and closed nearly 3.5 per cent higher at the close of trade on Thursday but the heavy losses inflicted since mid-February will resume.

“Markets are currently buoyed by governments’ stimulus packages,” according to the report from Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/mar...r/news-story/d16adf22f4264fd26190b9902097c92d

@gartley might be winning at the moment, but I reckon @InsvestoBoy is still in with a good shot here.

Perhaps I'm being a little pessimistic, but I don't think we have seen the worst of this downturn yet. I suspect we're right in the midst of a dead cat bounce and the market will be heading down again soon.

greggles said:

@gartley might be winning at the moment, but I reckon @InsvestoBoy is still in with a good shot here.

Click to expand...

I made a geographical error here.

My entry is simply the postcode of where I used to live. 7015 (Geilston Bay which is suburban Hobart).

I now live in SA and if I'd used my current postcode as the entry then I'd be winning at this point since numerically it's not far from the current value of the ASX.

The power of hindsight. My only hope is that nobody from the NT ever wins using this approach since NT postcodes have 0 as the first digit.....

I live in Sydney.. so we're doomed

ASX soars, pumped by coronavirus recovery

Share traders in Australia had a great Tuesday, with the local market making big gains.

At the close of trading, the ASX200 index was up a stunning 2.93 per cent, to reach 5,780.00 points. The All Ordinaries was up 2.79 per cent, ending the day at 5,889.90 points. That makes it the best day of trading for seven weeks, and the highest the market has been for 11 weeks.

The buying frenzy was triggered by positivity arising from coronavirus restrictions starting to lift around the world.

More here > https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/asx-soars-pumped-coronavirus-recovery-002353242.html