XAO Technical Analysis

Lucky_Country · 7 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Growth is what drives share prices not recession.
China and India are the high growth countries of the world, read somewhere cant remember where that Chinas oil consumption was growing by 400,000 bopd.
Australian resources are spending billions of dollars expanding there operations too meet demand and they would not be doing this if it were just a 1 or 2 year demand equation.
Bloomberg today said India growing at 9% China last I heard 11%
This is just the infrastructure boom wait till they do start buying ipods and plasmas.
Some of this demand has also been caused by global warming updating power generators too more climate friendly ones LNG and U308 and that is a worldwide episode

CFD · 7 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Isn't this thread meant to be on analysis?

chops_a_must · 7 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Lucky_Country said:
I think the market is getting sick of bad news from US and has already factored in a recession so anything but a recession is viewed as a positive.

Ummm... didn't we just see a >2.5% sell off based on US jobs numbers?

How does that in any way suggest this had been factored in?

We did not however breach support today, so I'm now holding a few other things. Tight stops blah blah blah.

ASXG - It was just a reference to another person's point. As someone more inclined to look at T/A, I don't really believe in political events effecting the markets overly on a whole (election years are different though). I'm more inclined to take into economic policy decisions than anything. The reaction of the U bubble to the Labor announcement is typical of the reasons I'm personally sceptical of political influence on markets on the larger level.

wavepicker · 7 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Indices at the crossroads this evening.

As well as a potential completed EW abc(blue waves a and c approx equal)in my top EW count(Ending Diagonal) from earlier post:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=240459&postcount=1910

there is also potential for a bounce tonight/tommorow due to a cycle point low. This low maybe the siginificant if it holds. The next major cycle point is a high and it does not come into effect until late Jan/Early February. Failing that a break below 12,707 pts would be quite bearish

Cheers

treefrog · 7 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Indices at the crossroads this evening.

As well as a potential completed EW abc(blue waves a and c approx equal)in my top EW count(Ending Diagonal) from earlier post:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=240459&postcount=1910

there is also potential for a bounce tonight/tommorow due to a cycle point low. This low maybe the siginificant if it holds. The next major cycle point is a high and it does not come into effect until late Jan/Early February. Failing that a break below 12,707 pts would be quite bearish

Cheers

hard to believe there won't be a bounce tomorrow - there are some seriously oversold indicators on lots of stocks

wayneL · 7 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
hard to believe there won't be a bounce tomorrow - there are some seriously oversold indicators on lots of stocks

Futures up about half a percent too at this stage, Europe up a bit. A technical bounce looks a "possible" certainty.

Sean K · 8 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
A technical bounce looks a "possible" certainty.

LOL

hacheln_mice · 8 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
I don't see any signs of mass sell offs yet. I see buyers lowering their bids but not a lot of sellers jumping yet. If you ignore a few financials and big resource stocks the rest of the market probably isn't all that bad.

Anyone see it different?

All Ords down 2.27%, Small Ords down 2.37%, Midcaps down 3.14%.

Looking at those numbers, I would have thought that it was the large caps that was propping up the markets rather than dragging it down. Seems like the advance decline is telling the same thing...

At least the trend line from 2003 (in the all ords) hasn't been convincingly broken yet...

That being said, even if the trend line does break, it doesn't necessarily signal a bear market (trading range most likely).

prana · 8 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

similarly, the DJI is forming a long term support from 1990 on the log chart, and the DJI has a third test of horizontal support at 12800 thereabouts - up forming a wedge, so this is a critical point and could spell troubles for Australian Equities if it went underneath. My gut feel is that both indices will respect the support but it's just a feel and is as reliable as a fish behind the wheel.

treefrog · 8 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

hacheln_mice said:
All Ords down 2.27%, Small Ords down 2.37%, Midcaps down 3.14%.

At least the trend line from 2003 (in the all ords) hasn't been convincingly broken yet...

That being said, even if the trend line does break, it doesn't necessarily signal a bear market (trading range most likely).

agrees with miss mousey

thought I'd toss in a little more explanation of how those lines work as its obvious there are a few fundamentalists about

when there is two or more price hi or lows at the same number a solid horizontal line appears - like the bottom two lines

when there are more hi or low numbers that hit that solid orange line (the same number) they make holes in it and it becomes a dotted orange line

thereafter, when that number occurs again it may be at one of these holes and it can fall through (as happened on the top orange line)

then; the dotted line becomes a dash/dot line making it even easier to fall through next time

all the while (if there are enough low numbers) there can be a slopey green line which forces the numbers to keep going up except that this also gets holes in it and can allow the numbers to fall through

at the moment there is a green slopey one and an orange one at the same place stopping the numbers from falling:

BUT, they both have holes in them

hmmmmmm Your file of 116.5 KB bytes exceeds the forum's limit of 78.1 KB for this filetype.

hacheln_mice · 8 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
agrees with miss mousey

thought I'd toss in a little more explanation of how those lines work as its obvious there are a few fundamentalists about

when there is two or more price hi or lows at the same number a solid horizontal line appears - like the bottom two lines

when there are more hi or low numbers that hit that solid orange line (the same number) they make holes in it and it becomes a dotted orange line

thereafter, when that number occurs again it may be at one of these holes and it can fall through (as happened on the top orange line)

then; the dotted line becomes a dash/dot line making it even easier to fall through next time

all the while (if there are enough low numbers) there can be a slopey green line which forces the numbers to keep going up except that this also gets holes in it and can allow the numbers to fall through

at the moment there is a green slopey one and an orange one at the same place stopping the numbers from falling:

BUT, they both have holes in them

hmmmmmm Your file of 116.5 KB bytes exceeds the forum's limit of 78.1 KB for this filetype.

Glad to see you taking the piss out of charts. How's fundamental analysis working out for ya .

Nyden · 8 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Did I miss something? ASX was up 16pts when I went out this morning, came back to a drop of 44! Not very analytical of me, but what the heck happened?

MattB · 8 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

i've not been amongst stock trading for too long, so I still scratch my head at the markets behaviour!
some have been posting charts analyzing against the resent bull run from 2003... well, that's been a 'short' 5 year trend... what about the 25 year uptrend? Is there possibilities that it could correct to this more sober upward channel? ..that would mean the XAO 'should' be on 4500!

treefrog · 8 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

hacheln_mice said:
Glad to see you taking the piss out of charts. How's fundamental analysis working out for ya .

I use both fund and tech together - well a not too deep version - reasoning that there are a lot of charties and a lot of fundies and its buying power that moves prices so if enough of either get into the market (or out) then it moves - and if it moves I can cream off a little - the pigmallion trading system I call it - charts are always trumped by fundamentals though

will try again for the missing chart

treefrog · 8 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Did I miss something? ASX was up 16pts when I went out this morning, came back to a drop of 44! Not very analytical of me, but what the heck happened?

its ZFX, OXR, and BHP mate - bluddy lead weights they are

nikki · 8 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

did the XAO go up today because people were buying to short the market even further. it then fell on fundamentals of fear!

was the DJIA move up at the closing minutes of yesterday something similar - i.e. buying defensively to prepare for a potential break of the 12800 support.

not sure - i was just trying to understand the 'fundamentals' of the sudden moves in the DJIA and XAO today?

willow · 8 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Gooday Barrett, your rounding top on the Dow is also coming off a doulble top on the Dow, check out Uncle Festivus chart a page or two back. Cheers.

willow · 9 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Sorry about the above post, I was thinking of the SPX. Looks like a big head and shoulders or rounding top on the daily at the same level of the double top on the monthly. Cheers.

Sean K · 9 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Untidy.

Logique · 9 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Useful chart kennas,
the lower XAO high at 6740 followed by falling through the 200SMA, then a break down below 6200. Untidy is one word for it. Not good for the near term prospects.

XAO Technical Analysis

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