XAO Technical Analysis

[lioness]

Re: XAO Analysis

Is that so?

Take a look at that abomination ^^ a.k.a Japan's 225 Nikkei average.

Imagine you held those blue-ship shares of a country who had once a "world model" of an economy, 17 years past that and you still have a stock market that's nearly 26,000 points down from that day. And joy for those folks still holding as Japan as on the verge of ANOTHER recession.

Ofcourse maybe in another 20 years it might finally get back up, or maybe not, but geez, long wait, I guess they've already passed those shares onto their kids or grandkids though.

Even the major Euro markets (FTSE, Dax) haven't broken past their all-time highs since the tech bubble burst!

But I'm guessing they'll just take a LOT more time and really - who wouldn't be frustrated at waiting for those to get back lol

Vishalt,

That is just being silly to compare the XAO to the Nikkei - it is like comparing a pitbull to a sausage dog, totally different animals and breeds.

Please - you can do better than argue this.

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm with Nizar on this one.

But hey we could have that 1 in 100 yr event!
This is only to Y2000!!---gets better!

at last, someone posts an LT chart with the value on a log scale

relevant to state that the value (cost) of a $1 share 100 years ago would cost in today's momey $25

the current discussion on whether the ozzie market goes up or down is nonsense for a number of reasons
1. anyone suggesting that the posts saying it goes down meant it always and continuously goes down is deliberately trying to misrepresent
2. similarly for the contrary view

the current 5 yr run on the ozzie market is an exceptional bull run and anyone who thinks it won't correct is obviously still attending high school

 

[vishalt]

Re: XAO Analysis

Vishalt,

That is just being silly to compare the XAO to the Nikkei - it is like comparing a pitbull to a sausage dog, totally different animals and breeds.

Please - you can do better than argue this.

How? I think it's an improbable yet realistic scenario for any stock market... I'd agree it was a bit silly if I mentioned the NASDAQ which is tech dominated, but the companies in the Nikkei 225 are pretty big entities and very diversified. However at the time there was a huge property bubble in Japan, I don't think we're in a commodities bubble as China and India are truly industralising and that it's a long term process and our companies have very realistic valuations.

 

[barrett]

Re: XAO Analysis

I hope this isn't off topic, & I am no technician, but.. this 8-month rounding top that has formed in the dow looks bearish in the short term.. from what I have seen the rounding tops are fairly reliable formations. If we look at that great chart that willow posted, it suggests that we are not looking at a catastrophe here, certainly not with this dovish fed... but maybe a further fall in the dow and in the XAO by association, in the short term. And given the currently gloomy outlook among US stock market timing newsletters (currently only 28% long according to the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index).. the buying opportunity will probably come sooner than most will be ready for.
cheers barrett

 

[nizar]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm with Nizar on this one.

But hey we could have that 1 in 100 yr event!
This is only to Y2000!!---gets better!

Thanks for the chart tech, I have been looking for that the whole weekend!

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yeh, but for 2,3,4,5 years, then back up again, which is what I said in my initial post about this whole topic.

Anyway, i think we will just agree to disagree at this point.

I think you missed the humour/ academic point I was making.

You can look at a chart, cut it up, say it always goes up, and always goes down, selecting what you want to see. They are mostly the two directions it moves in the long term. So if markets will always go up, and will always go down, you are left with the ways in which you have to trade.

Personally, I was just reacting to the statement that "it ALWAYS" goes up. When you take into account inflation, it is clear that markets definitely do not always go up. Oil and gold being two examples. Past events/ data certainly don't rule out the possibility or probability of future outcomes. After all, you don't know where you are on the die roll, or coin flip, within the distribution. Law of large numbers and all that jazz...

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

We have a housing crash, you can replace Enron/ Worldcom with Bear Stearns this time around (with others sure to come in this down turn). All you need now is a freak political event, and it's the same scenario.

I wonder if you refer to 911 here Chops? Curiously it actually occured halfway through the bear market and managed to bottom it for almost 9 months. The London bombings saw new all-time-highs. The risk of a freak political event is ever present...why stop speculating now???

 

[hacheln_mice]

Re: XAO Analysis

Here's some charts with some squiggly lines drawn on.

Draw your own conclusions please.

Sidenote: Perhaps the small cap index paints a clearer picture of the Aussie market conditions.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

I don't see any signs of mass sell offs yet. I see buyers lowering their bids but not a lot of sellers jumping yet. If you ignore a few financials and big resource stocks the rest of the market probably isn't all that bad.

Anyone see it different?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XAO Analysis

I don't see any signs of mass sell offs yet. I see buyers lowering their bids but not a lot of sellers jumping yet. If you ignore a few financials and big resource stocks the rest of the market probably isn't all that bad.

Anyone see it different?

XAO 6262.7 -122.7 -1.9%

that's a healthy little bout of profit taking.......

Rest of the market see attachment....

 

[Lucky_Country]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think the market is getting sick of bad news from US and has already factored in a recession so anything but a recession is viewed as a positive.
I think some stocks have reached their low and unless they come out with individual bad news they aint going lower.
Now all that being said if China and India were too slow that then may have a more negative impact but read a post on bloomberg today staing India growing at 9% and 2008 is going too be a bumper year for growth there

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think the market is getting sick of bad news from US and has already factored in a recession so anything but a recession is viewed as a positive.
I think some stocks have reached their low and unless they come out with individual bad news they aint going lower.
Now all that being said if China and India were too slow that then may have a more negative impact but read a post on bloomberg today staing India growing at 9% and 2008 is going too be a bumper year for growth there

This is a interesting point Lucky_Country. As we know, the market is a forward looking beast, but with what information, and how far? How much fear and greed is factored into the long term funnymentals? The point about whether a recession is factored in is important, and it probably is, but how deep? And, does recession in the US precipitate a world recession, or is it just a sentimental effect? With all the 'information' that may or may not be correct, due in large part to Hogwart's Accounting Principles, who the heck knows exactly where the world stands funnymentally? I resort to Nizar's long term XAO chart which shows the market trending long term UP. Short to medium term corrections present opportunities for those not putting their eggs in one little basket.

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think the market is getting sick of bad news from US and has already factored in a recession so anything but a recession is viewed as a positive.
I think some stocks have reached their low and unless they come out with individual bad news they aint going lower.
Now all that being said if China and India were too slow that then may have a more negative impact but read a post on bloomberg today staing India growing at 9% and 2008 is going too be a bumper year for growth there

Yep, good points idgehuh (hard to pronounce)

Are we beginning to release uncle sam's wall st coat-tails?

 

[the barry]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think the market is getting sick of bad news from US and has already factored in a recession so anything but a recession is viewed as a positive.
I think some stocks have reached their low and unless they come out with individual bad news they aint going lower.
Now all that being said if China and India were too slow that then may have a more negative impact but read a post on bloomberg today staing India growing at 9% and 2008 is going too be a bumper year for growth there

I agree.

It's also important to note that the state of the US economy is reflective of poor management rarther than being a reflection of world markets. If the sub prime mortgage issue wsa taken out and America didn't have the Irag expenditures on its sheets we may be talking about how good a shape the world markets are at the moment and let the bulls run.

Large growth in Russia, India and China should mean an overall healthy market. Strong overseas economy's may mean that america picks up some strength and gains some stimulation in manafacturing/employment due to lower purchase prices due to a weaker US dollar.

 

[Lucky_Country]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think the economies of China and India are far greater than the size of the US and most of there demand is too feed the homegrown growth not all but some of it is US related.
Now the US plus EU now thats a big economy factor but again the growth of China India Russia Brasil far outweighs the combination of US and EU.
China the biggest urabanisation the world has ever seen.
India burgeoning middle class want good standards of living with modern infastructure.
World growth is basically shifting EU and US will not match the pace of Asian growth and has reach saturation point.
Oh by the way Japans growth died years ago !

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: XAO Analysis

US 9 trillion dollar consumer economy, China 1 trillion dollar consumer economy.

The average wage in China is about 2pc of the average wage in the US. I dont see a boom in Ipods and Plasmas in the developing world anytime soon.

Decoupling is a untried "theory".

AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY-CHINA
Project manager: £12,173
Software engineer: £6,998
Accountant: £4,677
Sales rep: £2,649
Production worker: £1,214
Source: Mercer Human Resource Consulting

AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY-INDIA
Project manager: £5,220
Software engineer: £5,344
Accountant: £2,956
Sales rep: £2,464
Production worker: £964
Source: Mercer Human Resource Consulting

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4436692.stm

 

[Temjin]

Re: XAO Analysis

US 9 trillion dollar consumer economy, China 1 trillion dollar consumer economy.

The average wage in China is about 2pc of the average wage in the US. I dont see a boom in Ipods and Plasmas in the developing world anytime soon.

Decoupling is a untried "theory".



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4436692.stm

Combine US economy and the Europe economy and one will see how small the Chinese consumer economy is truly is, which remain a largely export based gdp.

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

US 9 trillion dollar consumer economy, China 1 trillion dollar consumer economy.

The average wage in China is about 2pc of the average wage in the US. I dont see a boom in Ipods and Plasmas in the developing world anytime soon.

Decoupling is a untried "theory".

fair comment

but if we are looking at growth, where in macro terms does it come from??

Personally I am convinced it is all but all from population growth

1950 2.55billion; 1960 3.0b; 1970 3.7b; 1980 4.5b;
1990 5.3b; 2000 6.1b; 2010 6.8b; 2020 7.6b etc

so ozzie shares are looking good as long as people want a bicycle instead of walking. a motor bike instead of peddling, a car instead of a mb, an ice box instead of sour milk. a frig instead of etc etc

only downside risk is the greenies overdoing the global warming issue and stopping growth which means (probably) - industrialised areas must reverse growth because try telling the peasants they can't have a bicycle or a few more kids

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think the economies of China and India are far greater than the size of the US

Yes, you do think that the combined economies of China and India are far bigger than the US but that doesn't make you right. In fact it makes you horribly wrong.

2007 GDP estimates in $US

USA 13.5 trillion
China 3.1 trillion
India 1.0 trillion

and most of there demand is too feed the homegrown growth not all but some of it is US related.

Again utterly false, asian economies are becoming ever more reliant on exports.

Now the US plus EU now thats a big economy factor but again the growth of China India Russia Brasil far outweighs the combination of US and EU.

USA 13.5 trillion

Germany 2.9 trillion, France 2.3 trillion, U.K 2.4 trillion = 7.6 trillion

Total USA, France Germany U.K = 21.1 trillion (That's leaving out a sizeable chunk of Europe)

China 3.1 trillion, India 1.0 trillion, Brazil 1.1 trillion, Russia, 1.0 trillion = 6.2 trillion.

You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm not here to speak for Lucky_Country, but I thought he was talking about the rate of growth of the economies, not the absolute size.

I don't know the numbers for growth off hand but I am inclined to think that the US consumer spending may slow a little maybe to zero growth, but it isn't going to dry up all together. The other economies may be much smaller in absolute GDP terms, but so long as they keep growing at a much faster rate than the US, the Aus economy will be no worse off, maybe still gain a bit because of the need for our resources in those countries. The China's and India's are still going to manufacture all those goods and the US will still consume most of them just not quite so many as before.

Assuming the US growth @ 1% is $135b. China @ 6% is $186b... China alone will grow by a larger $ value than the US in the short term.

I don't see a 1% fall in the US growth rate equating to a 1% fall in China's exports, let alone growth.