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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

I agree, hats off to willow for some very nice research.

But past rate cut results might not necessarily indicate what happens now, and then there is still the possibility of Australia/Asia rising independent of the US due to the demand from China, I mean we tanked the NASDAQ crash exceptionally well compared to other stock markets.

Lets hope for all our sake that the US growth numbers somehow come out good!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

vishalt said:
I agree, hats off to willow for some very nice research.

But past rate cut results might not necessarily indicate what happens now, and then there is still the possibility of Australia/Asia rising independent of the US due to the demand from China, I mean we tanked the NASDAQ crash exceptionally well compared to other stock markets.
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Ahh the decoupling theory that the Chinese Government itself doesn't even believe.

Lets hope for all our sake that the US growth numbers somehow come out good!
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There it is again, hope springs eternal, twice in one night, Alexander Pope would be proud.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks willow

The monthly XAO back to 1980 doesn't exactly fill one with confidence.

RSI on top

gg
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Ahh, a little story of " Hope "


My Scottish Grandmothers family motto was " Spero Meliora " or " I Hope for better things ".

In 1557 The Clan Johnstone burnt the building in which the most important members of her family were inside and slaughtered anyone who tried to escape. In one blow her once powerful Clan was almost wiped out.


Beware of placing to much faith in hope :eek:

I guess the moral of this little tale is to not put all your eggs in one basket, or in this case all your relatives in one building :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

vishalt said:
I think its also important to keep in mind those cuts happened when there were a multiple of things: NASDAQ Crash, 9/11, and a confidence shock in corporate America (Enron/Worldcom)
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I tend to look at the current events in this way:
1. Instead of the tech wreck, we now have the sub prime problem.
2. we most likely won't have another 9/11 (hopefully, we'll never have to go throught something like this ever again)... but rather than thinking of it as the cause, I like to think of it as the catalyst. Most of the problems with the financial markets at that time were created before 9/11 happened.
3. Confidence shock in corporates. Every time the economy takes a turn to the south, there will be companies going bankrupt, and, unfortunately, I think it will be the same this time round. This year, the most at risk will be the financial sector. We have already seen a few victims e.g. Rams, Centro, and I would think that there will be more companies going down the same path - to oblivion.

I think that dropping interest rates is only delaying on the inevitable - zero or negative growth of the economy while the problems flush/fix themselves out.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Awesomandy said:
I tend to look at the current events in this way:
1. Instead of the tech wreck, we now have the sub prime problem.
2. we most likely won't have another 9/11 (hopefully, we'll never have to go throught something like this ever again)... but rather than thinking of it as the cause, I like to think of it as the catalyst. Most of the problems with the financial markets at that time were created before 9/11 happened.
3. Confidence shock in corporates. Every time the economy takes a turn to the south, there will be companies going bankrupt, and, unfortunately, I think it will be the same this time round. This year, the most at risk will be the financial sector. We have already seen a few victims e.g. Rams, Centro, and I would think that there will be more companies going down the same path - to oblivion.

I think that dropping interest rates is only delaying on the inevitable - zero or negative growth of the economy while the problems flush/fix themselves out.
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That's a good point!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
Thanks willow

The monthly XAO back to 1980 doesn't exactly fill one with confidence.

RSI on top

gg
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Yes point taken.
BUT take a look at that the price action on that chart and tell me what you see.
Look at an even longer term chart (say, 100 years) of the stockmarket, and tell me what you see.

Well here's what I see. Corrective moves generally last 2,3,4,5 years, BUT over time, the market ALWAYS goes up.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
Yes point taken.
the market ALWAYS goes up.
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Is that so?

_n225


Take a look at that abomination ^^ a.k.a Japan's 225 Nikkei average.

Imagine you held those blue-ship shares of a country who had once a "world model" of an economy, 17 years past that and you still have a stock market that's nearly 26,000 points down from that day. And joy for those folks still holding as Japan as on the verge of ANOTHER recession.

Ofcourse maybe in another 20 years it might finally get back up, or maybe not, but geez, long wait, I guess they've already passed those shares onto their kids or grandkids though.

Even the major Euro markets (FTSE, Dax) haven't broken past their all-time highs since the tech bubble burst!

But I'm guessing they'll just take a LOT more time and really - who wouldn't be frustrated at waiting for those to get back lol
 
Re: XAO Analysis

vishalt said:
Is that so?

_n225


Take a look at that abomination ^^ a.k.a Japan's 225 Nikkei average.

Imagine you held those blue-ship shares of a country who had once a "world model" of an economy, 17 years past that and you still have a stock market that's nearly 26,000 points down from that day. And joy for those folks still holding as Japan as on the verge of ANOTHER recession.

Ofcourse maybe in another 20 years it might finally get back up, or maybe not, but geez, long wait, I guess they've already passed those shares onto their kids or grandkids though.

Even the major Euro markets (FTSE, Dax) haven't broken past their all-time highs since the tech bubble burst!

But I'm guessing they'll just take a LOT more time and really - who wouldn't be frustrated at waiting for those to get back lol
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I meant XAO.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

vishalt said:
Take a look at that abomination ^^ a.k.a Japan's 225 Nikkei average.
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I wonder if there is some sort of an accumulation index as well? If there is one, I still very much doubt it would be above the high set in the 80s, but it would be interesting to have a look at.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks for the positive feed-back people and Garpul gumnut for posting the 1987 event. It certainly makes you wonder. Here is a link to a website I check out regularly for their short term veiw of the market. These guys are expecting a big move soon. It will be interesting to see what happens now, there is clearly excitement in the market place. Cheers.
http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp
 
Re: XAO Analysis

vishalt said:
Is that so?

_n225


Take a look at that abomination ^^ a.k.a Japan's 225 Nikkei average.

Imagine you held those blue-ship shares of a country who had once a "world model" of an economy, 17 years past that and you still have a stock market that's nearly 26,000 points down from that day. And joy for those folks still holding as Japan as on the verge of ANOTHER recession.

Ofcourse maybe in another 20 years it might finally get back up, or maybe not, but geez, long wait, I guess they've already passed those shares onto their kids or grandkids though.

Even the major Euro markets (FTSE, Dax) haven't broken past their all-time highs since the tech bubble burst!

But I'm guessing they'll just take a LOT more time and really - who wouldn't be frustrated at waiting for those to get back lol
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Yes, but the Japanese market more thean QUADRUPELED in only 5 YEARS

Unsustainable in anyones language.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Mmmm... world markets, including Australia's, are much more like Japan's in the 80s than ever before.

I can look at a chart and say the XAO ALWAYS goes down as well. ;)
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My point was that in the long term, the XAO has always gone up.
Look at a 50 year or 100 year chart.

If you can look at a long term chart of the XAO and show me how it always goes down, please do. It would be news to me ;) ;)

And our market, DID NOT quadruple in 5 years the way Japan did ;)
Neither did any other world market except maybe China, So.....
MMMMMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
If you can look at a long term chart of the XAO and show me how it always goes down, please do. It would be news to me ;) ;)
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After 87, after 2001, after August this year. At some point, it always goes down. ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
After 87, after 2001, after August this year. At some point, it always goes down. ;)
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Yeh, but for 2,3,4,5 years, then back up again, which is what I said in my initial post about this whole topic.

Anyway, i think we will just agree to disagree at this point.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I'm with Nizar on this one.

But hey we could have that 1 in 100 yr event!
This is only to Y2000!!---gets better!
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
My point was that in the long term, the XAO has always gone up.
Look at a 50 year or 100 year chart.

If you can look at a long term chart of the XAO and show me how it always goes down, please do. It would be news to me ;) ;)
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Totally agree with you Nizar, it may move down in the short term on those charts, like for a year or two but the overall trend is up. that is as plain as day to see!

when u look at the 87 crash now, it looks rather small in the overall picture.

Tech great chart, I was looking for something exactly like that but I had no luck in finding it for free.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

GetGif.gif


Look how many years after 87' it took to reach the same high.

Would'nt want to be geared in a similar situation now would we :eek:
 
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