XAO Technical Analysis

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: XAO Analysis

At close: All Ordinaries: 6,054.4 down 92.9.

That's equivalent to a drop of 1.51% after the DOW rose 0.92% last night. Now that's what I call divergence!

I'm going with those who claim a turnaround early next week.

There's still good support yet. Until 6018.9 is comprehensively broken, I'm not too worried about roaming bears.

They'll probably have to go hungry fo a bit longer yet.

I confused now, DOW was up but our market went down, DOW was down this morning by 250, so our market will go up Monday????? Maybe Tuesday Whiskers, you'd think there was a rebound to come sooner or later?

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

I confused now, DOW was up but our market went down, DOW was down this morning by 250, so our market will go up Monday????? Maybe Tuesday Whiskers, you'd think there was a rebound to come sooner or later?

Yeah it's a bit like that Uncle. I'm thinking Tuesday too.

I have put my devils advocate hat on and am speculating that the banks that most of these especially US forcasting economists work for might be hammering the news a bit for their own benifit.

 

[Lucky_Country]

Re: XAO Analysis

Quarterly and half yearly reports due out soon thay may give our market some stimulus and show AUS is partially decoupled from the US.
Resources are expecting record profits this year combined with takeover activity should give us a boost
The old saying you gotta hit rock bottom before things get better apply too the market atm and we aint hit bottom yet imo

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

Quarterly and half yearly reports due out soon thay may give our market some stimulus and show AUS is partially decoupled from the US.
Resources are expecting record profits this year combined with takeover activity should give us a boost
The old saying you gotta hit rock bottom before things get better apply too the market atm and we aint hit bottom yet imo

particularly so this round of announcements the market will be looking well forward for earnings and growth projections - a good result that is months old not likely to help at all

 

[tronic72]

Re: XAO Analysis

Our Market will be slaughtered on Monday. The DOW and NASDAQ feel nearly 2% on Friday so the XAO doesn't stand a chance.

I'm taking my Bat (money) and Ball (laptop) and going home.

 

[markrmau]

Re: XAO Analysis

The DOW and NASDAQ feel nearly 2% on Friday so the XAO doesn't stand a chance.

Not at all. Start thursday. The SP500 (forget the dow rubbush) rallied 1% or so. XJO lost over 1%. SP500 looses over 1%. MER up 5% (!! WTF ??)

Monday we will drop for first 10 minutes before ending up slightly (<.5%)

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Quarterly and half yearly reports due out soon thay may give our market some stimulus and show AUS is partially decoupled from the US.
Resources are expecting record profits this year combined with takeover activity should give us a boost
The old saying you gotta hit rock bottom before things get better apply too the market atm and we aint hit bottom yet imo

Good quarterly and half year reports are not evidence of decoupling. You would not expect to see earnings weakness in Australia at the same time as the US. Their will be a lag effect and will also depend on how deep and protracted the US slowdown is. ASX company profits will be solid through at least June 2008.

Mining company profits have been declining for several quarters and actually peaked several quarters ago. More importantly as treefrog points out will be company outlooks.

 

[nikki]

Re: XAO Analysis

Good quarterly and half year reports are not evidence of decoupling. You would not expect to see earnings weakness in Australia at the same time as the US. Their will be a lag effect and will also depend on how deep and protracted the US slowdown is. ASX company profits will be solid through at least June 2008.

Mining company profits have been declining for several quarters and actually peaked several quarters ago. More importantly as treefrog points out will be company outlooks.

shhhhooooshhhhhhhhhhh Dhukka - i am hoping for a rally on such news so i can sell into the strength!!!! i would expect miners like RIO and BHP to report huge gains. I am sure RIO will report differently only to boost its SP for a solid take-over.

anyone know when the big traders will come back into the aussie markets (instititional ones i mean). i think the drops have been exagerated because of fewer people trading this time of the year. i am not suggesting the institutional investors are bullish but i figure they have to park their money somewhere??

i am calling for a flat XJO and XAO on monday until the DJIA breaks 12500 - otherwise there is no reason for further pressure on our indexes.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

Our Market will be slaughtered on Monday. The DOW and NASDAQ feel nearly 2% on Friday so the XAO doesn't stand a chance.

I'm taking my Bat (money) and Ball (laptop) and going home.

It maybe that a good proportion of the US decline has was already factored in on Fridays XAO decline tronic. Perhaps a 35-50 pt decline on open and then after 1:30pm we will see if we get a continuation or not.

 

[nizar]

Re: XAO Analysis

Even if this is the start of a bearmarket, both the DOW and XAO are oversold and i would expect some sort of technical bounce next week.

 

[Lucky_Country]

Re: XAO Analysis

particularly so this round of announcements the market will be looking well forward for earnings and growth projections - a good result that is months old not likely to help at all

Good results from the last quarter affect forward earnings as do bad results.
New projects have come onstream in the last quarter may or may have not performed as well as predicted maybe even outperformed that is why they may give us a bounce or worst case a fall in that companys sp.

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Re: XAO Analysis

3 pretty pics to consider. First two show XAO activity during last two US recessions. 3rd looks at what might happen now.

 

[nizar]

Re: XAO Analysis

3 pretty pics to consider. First two show XAO activity during last two US recessions. 3rd looks at what might happen now.

Longterm trend line (pre-2003) will still be intact even if we get to 4800, or whatever that 30% low was.

Perhaps a more important question is not how low we go, but rather how long it will be until the bottom is in.

 

[Edwood]

Re: XAO Analysis

I confused now, DOW was up but our market went down, DOW was down this morning by 250, so our market will go up Monday????? Maybe Tuesday Whiskers, you'd think there was a rebound to come sooner or later?

all sessions SPI followed DOW down so we should have a decent gap down to open on Monday & 'ideally' we'll retrace some of the gap. Northern Rock failing to get rescue funding in the UK may not help general banking sentiment so Monday could still be weak and we could go lower yet, but overall for next week I'll be biased towards longs

 

[$20shoes]

Re: XAO Analysis

An aside, interesting because it does not occur that often is the dead cross of the 50day EMA of the 200 day EMA on the S&P. This has just occurred this week on the S&P500. Though it has no real forecasting capabilities by itself, anecdotally the index either recovers (ie, a golden cross):

i ) within a few weeks with some possible consolidation before the next leg up,

OR

ii) if it cannot recover in a few weeks, the index goes into a much longer term period of consolidation or turns bear - both periods lasting months to years.

Dead Crosses going back to 87 have only occurred 7 times:

Jan 08 till ??

Oct 2000 dead cross lasted until May 03 golden cross (bear market)

Oct 98 dead cross lasted 3 weeks while index traced out a double bottom

dEC 94 - lasted 4 weeks (end of consolidation phase - part of a broader basing phase - before bull market run)

aPRIL 94 dead cross lasted until Aug 94 golden cross (index ranging for most of 94 caused the dead cross)

Aug 90 dead cross lasted until Feb 91 golden cross (bear market)

Oct 87 dead cross lasted until Oct 88 golden cross (bear falls followed by basing phase)

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

An aside, interesting because it does not occur that often is the dead cross of the 50day EMA of the 200 day EMA on the S&P. This has just occurred this week on the S&P500. Though it has no real forecasting capabilities by itself, anecdotally the index either recovers (ie, a golden cross):

i ) within a few weeks with some possible consolidation before the next leg up,

OR

ii) if it cannot recover in a few weeks, the index goes into a much longer term period of consolidation or turns bear - both periods lasting months to years.

Dead Crosses going back to 87 have only occurred 7 times:

Jan 08 till ??

Oct 2000 dead cross lasted until May 03 golden cross (bear market)

Oct 98 dead cross lasted 3 weeks while index traced out a double bottom

dEC 94 - lasted 4 weeks (end of consolidation phase - part of a broader basing phase - before bull market run)

aPRIL 94 dead cross lasted until Aug 94 golden cross (index ranging for most of 94 caused the dead cross)

Aug 90 dead cross lasted until Feb 91 golden cross (bear market)

Oct 87 dead cross lasted until Oct 88 golden cross (bear falls followed by basing phase)

top post!! - tend to forget these macro indicators

and applying to the local indexes(sectors) which (according to these EMA's) are already in a bear market

top20 - no
smalls - no
energy - no
materials - no
industrials - YES!
con discretionary - YES!
con staples - no
health - no
tech - YES!
utilities - YES!
properties - YES!
finance - YES!

 

[willow]

Re: XAO Analysis

Some really good charts and information is being posted here, it's nearly information overload. Here's the XJO chart with two main trendlines of support broken for the second time, the major trendline going back to the beginning of this bull run and the 34 week ema.

The weekly close has found support at the red trendline. But according to the chart I posted on p95 with the ROC extreme readings a move to the August lows or lower is likely to occur eventually (dotted blue line). Also looking at the 4 year cycles I'd say it's not over yet and I'd expect more of a decline with such a steep angle of ascent. Cheers.

Treefrog, yes it was the Commodity Channel index, one of my favorite indicators along with stochastic momentum.

Chops a must, Glad you appreciate the chart, I agree with you on BHP. I notice it's weekly relative strength is losing ground from high above and is looking similar to September 2006 when it traveled sideways for quite a while before breaking new ground. Cheers

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

lust a passing thought: sorry, meant just - or maybe I didn't:

if NWS was still a weighting in our market we would definately be bear by now - NWS $32 to $22 in last 10 months

 

[insider]

Re: XAO Analysis

LOLOL

"Bearish" A parody song

I just wanted to go through some of the older posts and see how relevant it is at present time... Nice one WayneL

 

[powerkoala]

Re: XAO Analysis

ok.. this looks good,
xao rebounce from the low 5970 and now at 6030.
that's around 60 point.
can't see support at 5970 before.
will this be a dead cat or a good start for rebound after correction?
any ideas guys?
cheers