GreatPig
Pigs In Space
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XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
Yeah it doesn't look that good in the short term. Technical rebound any time soon? Or possible further down side? FOMC meeting coming up soon, should spark some bargain hunting when (not if
) they slash rates.
But the last few "corrections" we had, the market fell 10%, then rebounded a fair bit all 3 times. Happened in March, August and even November, this is the only bullish case I can think to buy in.
But the US reporting season coming up, maybe a lot of the selling in the last couple sessions in the US has been in anticipation of negative news, and anything good will most likely spark a frenzy of buying, and anything bad, well... how much lower can it go?
Yeah it doesn't look that good in the short term. Technical rebound any time soon? Or possible further down side? FOMC meeting coming up soon, should spark some bargain hunting when (not if
) they slash rates.But the last few "corrections" we had, the market fell 10%, then rebounded a fair bit all 3 times. Happened in March, August and even November, this is the only bullish case I can think to buy in.
But the US reporting season coming up, maybe a lot of the selling in the last couple sessions in the US has been in anticipation of negative news, and anything good will most likely spark a frenzy of buying, and anything bad, well... how much lower can it go?
professor_frink
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Re: XAO Analysis
Personally, I think we'll more than likely bounce over the next few days- today's action for our market was a great technical bounce off the Feb 07 highs, and was combined with a fib retracement of some kind(don't have my charts up to look right now at exactly what it was). Asia was quite strong today too- the kospi and nikkei futs managed to finish in the green.
Combine that with the Dow looking heavily oversold IMO, we could rally over the next few days. Maybe
Yeah it doesn't look that good in the short term. Technical rebound any time soon? Or possible further down side? FOMC meeting coming up soon, should spark some bargain hunting when (not if
But the last few "corrections" we had, the market fell 10%, then rebounded a fair bit all 3 times. Happened in March, August and even November, this is the only bullish case I can think to buy in.
But the US reporting season coming up, maybe a lot of the selling in the last couple sessions in the US has been in anticipation of negative news, and anything good will most likely spark a frenzy of buying, and anything bad, well... how much lower can it go?
Personally, I think we'll more than likely bounce over the next few days- today's action for our market was a great technical bounce off the Feb 07 highs, and was combined with a fib retracement of some kind(don't have my charts up to look right now at exactly what it was). Asia was quite strong today too- the kospi and nikkei futs managed to finish in the green.
Combine that with the Dow looking heavily oversold IMO, we could rally over the next few days. Maybe
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Re: XAO Analysis
agrees with the bounce
on the XJO, the frog fib projection is back up for a potential double top - ie bounce from 6000 to 6800 (assuming the bounce gets some steam up)
Personally, I think we'll more than likely bounce over the next few days- today's action for our market was a great technical bounce off the Feb 07 highs, and was combined with a fib retracement of some kind(don't have my charts up to look right now at exactly what it was). Asia was quite strong today too- the kospi and nikkei futs managed to finish in the green.
Combine that with the Dow looking heavily oversold IMO, we could rally over the next few days. Maybe
agrees with the bounce
on the XJO, the frog fib projection is back up for a potential double top - ie bounce from 6000 to 6800 (assuming the bounce gets some steam up)
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Re: XAO Analysis
The XAO has fallen thru several support lines since last November and traders seem to apply their own labels to them minor, major, intermediate etc.
Does tech analysis have some correct means to identify these areas of support.
6560 I see as minor support from last Oct
6460 was clearly resistance last Jul & again Jan2 but did not act as support
6370 was resistance May and became support Nov. I consider this major supp
6021 was resist feb 07 and became weak support Aug29 (not reached yet)
5490 was the Aug low, and below here I feel a bear market is upon us.
Just trying to get my head around correct terminology for these support areas while we have a lull in the market and be ready to jump in if/when the market shows a strong bounce form support
The XAO has fallen thru several support lines since last November and traders seem to apply their own labels to them minor, major, intermediate etc.
Does tech analysis have some correct means to identify these areas of support.
6560 I see as minor support from last Oct
6460 was clearly resistance last Jul & again Jan2 but did not act as support
6370 was resistance May and became support Nov. I consider this major supp
6021 was resist feb 07 and became weak support Aug29 (not reached yet)
5490 was the Aug low, and below here I feel a bear market is upon us.
Just trying to get my head around correct terminology for these support areas while we have a lull in the market and be ready to jump in if/when the market shows a strong bounce form support
Re: XAO Analysis
Here's the SPX going back 40 years showing around the time of significant 14 month CCI trendline breaks with the turning of Sochastic momentum at the over-bought zone. These lines can be drawn in other places as well and in nearly all cases the very minimum to expect is several months of tight monthly consolidation. The odds favor some sought of decline to me, though, looking at this chart. Cheers.
Here's the SPX going back 40 years showing around the time of significant 14 month CCI trendline breaks with the turning of Sochastic momentum at the over-bought zone. These lines can be drawn in other places as well and in nearly all cases the very minimum to expect is several months of tight monthly consolidation. The odds favor some sought of decline to me, though, looking at this chart. Cheers.
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chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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Re: XAO Analysis
well, looks like XAO won't follow the lead from US anymore.
3 days up from DOW doesn't help to lift our beloved market.
seems the negatif sentiment so strong.
would we test the low on august 07?
well, looks like XAO won't follow the lead from US anymore.
3 days up from DOW doesn't help to lift our beloved market.
seems the negatif sentiment so strong.
would we test the low on august 07?
numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
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Re: XAO Analysis
Is this the decoupling folks speak of ?
As they say, becareful what you wish for
Is this the decoupling folks speak of ?
As they say, becareful what you wish for
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Re: XAO Analysis
This is absolutely not looking good!
Isnt it the US who are in a supposed recession already, not us? ha ha.
It appears the market is factoring in a US recession already, so once the figures are released (probably 6-12 months due to time-lags), we may not see any major ramifications.
This is absolutely not looking good!
Isnt it the US who are in a supposed recession already, not us? ha ha.
It appears the market is factoring in a US recession already, so once the figures are released (probably 6-12 months due to time-lags), we may not see any major ramifications.
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Re: XAO Analysis
yep, really top stuff willow
seems the market gets a itch every four years when its bouncing sideways but extends the urge to scratch to 7years when in bull mode
CCI I take it the Commodity Channel Index
cheerz
yep, really top stuff willow
seems the market gets a itch every four years when its bouncing sideways but extends the urge to scratch to 7years when in bull mode
CCI I take it the Commodity Channel Index
cheerz
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Re: XAO Analysis
might be a tad early to say we have separated but agree three is surprising
well, looks like XAO won't follow the lead from US anymore.
3 days up from DOW doesn't help to lift our beloved market.
seems the negatif sentiment so strong.
would we test the low on august 07?
might be a tad early to say we have separated but agree three is surprising
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Re: XAO Analysis
Good thing I had already drawn in that thick horizontal line On the XJO at 6000 - that has stopped today's bear run
Good thing I had already drawn in that thick horizontal line On the XJO at 6000 - that has stopped today's bear run
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Re: XAO Analysis
I also drew a thick Yellow Line at 6000 and put a sign up saying "Do not feed the Bears"
I think some silly people feed the bears so now the bears have breach the zone and are making a habbit of coming back for more...
I've drawn a line at 5800 and a sign saying "Bears Beware - use of lethal force allowed".
Another line at 5500 and a sign "Bear skins for sale!"
ie... 5500 could be a real possibility before this mess gets better... anyone agree with me on that call?
I also drew a thick Yellow Line at 6000 and put a sign up saying "Do not feed the Bears"
I think some silly people feed the bears so now the bears have breach the zone and are making a habbit of coming back for more...
I've drawn a line at 5800 and a sign saying "Bears Beware - use of lethal force allowed".
Another line at 5500 and a sign "Bear skins for sale!"
ie... 5500 could be a real possibility before this mess gets better... anyone agree with me on that call?
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Re: XAO Analysis
I would be surprised if the 5,400 levels aren't tested again.
However, I would be wary that the market is due for a bounce and it isn't going to happen next week. Certainly the S&P 500 is starting to show evidence of a bounce and we would obviously follow suit.
My view anyway!
Cheers
I would be surprised if the 5,400 levels aren't tested again.
However, I would be wary that the market is due for a bounce and it isn't going to happen next week. Certainly the S&P 500 is starting to show evidence of a bounce and we would obviously follow suit.
My view anyway!
Cheers
rub92me
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Re: XAO Analysis
You'd have to keep waving the signs and shout a lot. Bears don't see static objects too well
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Re: XAO Analysis
maybe we should start hunting the bear down.
everyone equip your rifle and start shooting.
i think next week xao will be better after this week battering.
maybe we should start hunting the bear down.
everyone equip your rifle and start shooting.
i think next week xao will be better after this week battering.
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Re: XAO Analysis
At close: All Ordinaries: 6,054.4 down 92.9.
That's equivalent to a drop of 1.51% after the DOW rose 0.92% last night. Now that's what I call divergence!
At close: All Ordinaries: 6,054.4 down 92.9.
That's equivalent to a drop of 1.51% after the DOW rose 0.92% last night. Now that's what I call divergence!
Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
I'm going with those who claim a turnaround early next week.
There's still good support yet. Until 6018.9 is comprehensively broken, I'm not too worried about roaming bears.
They'll probably have to go hungry fo a bit longer yet.
I'm going with those who claim a turnaround early next week.
There's still good support yet. Until 6018.9 is comprehensively broken, I'm not too worried about roaming bears.
They'll probably have to go hungry fo a bit longer yet.
