XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
The Hang Seng is the new DAX. Its a machine.
Source
30,000 to 24,000 is 20%
Established markets like Hong Kong don't fall by 20%.
But I guess in 2000 it went from 18,000 to the 2003 low of about 8,000 which is >50% so anything is possible
The Hang Seng is the new DAX. Its a machine.
Source
30,000 to 24,000 is 20%
Established markets like Hong Kong don't fall by 20%.
But I guess in 2000 it went from 18,000 to the 2003 low of about 8,000 which is >50% so anything is possible
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: XAO Analysis
Look back more that 4 years.30,000 to 24,000 is 20%
Established markets like Hong Kong don't fall by 20%.
But I guess in 2000 it went from 18,000 to the 2003 low of about 8,000 which is >50% so anything is possible
theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
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Re: XAO Analysis
There is an explanation for the growth which once again lies in the equation of demand out-stripping supply. Chinese investors are allowed to invest outside of China in select Hangseng listed stocks, skewing the index.
Frankly, Morgan Stanley is licking its finger and sticking it in the air with it's probability estimation and 'best-guess' at timing of a correction. It's not a statistical equation...its a question of how much money do Chinese investors have and how big is their need to find and investable home for it off-shore.
It's the old saying, markets can stay irrational longer than...blah blah.
The Hang Seng is the new DAX. Its a machine.
Source
30,000 to 24,000 is 20%
Established markets like Hong Kong don't fall by 20%.
But I guess in 2000 it went from 18,000 to the 2003 low of about 8,000 which is >50% so anything is possible
There is an explanation for the growth which once again lies in the equation of demand out-stripping supply. Chinese investors are allowed to invest outside of China in select Hangseng listed stocks, skewing the index.
Frankly, Morgan Stanley is licking its finger and sticking it in the air with it's probability estimation and 'best-guess' at timing of a correction. It's not a statistical equation...its a question of how much money do Chinese investors have and how big is their need to find and investable home for it off-shore.
It's the old saying, markets can stay irrational longer than...blah blah.
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Re: XAO Analysis
As an educator of prospective Chinese emigrants, I see a lot of potential "offshore" investors amongst the parent group.
There doesn't seem to be any stop to the enthusiasm of some locals. There is a strong history of saving amongst Chinese nationals; they are seeing 'investing' in equities as a more profitable form of saving - and the resource base is enormous AND they love gold!
As an educator of prospective Chinese emigrants, I see a lot of potential "offshore" investors amongst the parent group.
There doesn't seem to be any stop to the enthusiasm of some locals. There is a strong history of saving amongst Chinese nationals; they are seeing 'investing' in equities as a more profitable form of saving - and the resource base is enormous AND they love gold!
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Re: XAO Analysis
From an article entitled "Only human" in the Economist today, this sobering thought:
"The central banks' unprecedented public standing, which helped them in the fight against inflation, has also proved a double-edged sword. Blind faith that the Fed will always save the day encourages people to take even greater risks. Greed, unless it is reined in by fear, reaches out towards the calamitous moment when the central bankers' defences fail."
Source: http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=9972381
From an article entitled "Only human" in the Economist today, this sobering thought:
"The central banks' unprecedented public standing, which helped them in the fight against inflation, has also proved a double-edged sword. Blind faith that the Fed will always save the day encourages people to take even greater risks. Greed, unless it is reined in by fear, reaches out towards the calamitous moment when the central bankers' defences fail."
Source: http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=9972381
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Re: XAO Analysis
Well the forecast some weeks ago (SP500 and XAO) was they would make some sort of high on 5th October ± 1 day.
As mentioned back then this might be a second degree countertrend lasting 11-14 days OR it could be something bigger. Could not tell which
The last high made in the SP500 came in 3 trading days later(just to throw a spanner in the works) than the date expected above and in the XAO 5 days later (assuming these highs hold that is) This was in contrast to the high on the 16th of July was bang on time and the low on the 17th August which was also bang on time
It was clearly evident yesterday that the rally of the Wednesday arvo to late yesterday was a dud. Looking at the pattern on a micro level on an intraday chart it’s quite easy to see that the rally was a an EW double zigzag pattern which means it was corrective and not impulsive, as such the decline of today comes as no surprise.
The significant dates are 14/15th November and 20th November. Trouble is will this be a high or a low? I would expect it to be a low of sorts
Cheers
Well the forecast some weeks ago (SP500 and XAO) was they would make some sort of high on 5th October ± 1 day.
As mentioned back then this might be a second degree countertrend lasting 11-14 days OR it could be something bigger. Could not tell which
The last high made in the SP500 came in 3 trading days later(just to throw a spanner in the works) than the date expected above and in the XAO 5 days later (assuming these highs hold that is) This was in contrast to the high on the 16th of July was bang on time and the low on the 17th August which was also bang on time
It was clearly evident yesterday that the rally of the Wednesday arvo to late yesterday was a dud. Looking at the pattern on a micro level on an intraday chart it’s quite easy to see that the rally was a an EW double zigzag pattern which means it was corrective and not impulsive, as such the decline of today comes as no surprise.
The significant dates are 14/15th November and 20th November. Trouble is will this be a high or a low? I would expect it to be a low of sorts
Cheers
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Re: XAO Analysis
What's your prognosis?
Market has topped?Profit taking?Wary of American economy?Financials overvalued because of bad debt?
What's your prognosis?
Market has topped?Profit taking?Wary of American economy?Financials overvalued because of bad debt?
>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
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Re: XAO Analysis
I am short on the xjo,
I am calling this a correction to trading range. support at 6648. see what happens there.
I am short on the xjo,
I am calling this a correction to trading range. support at 6648. see what happens there.
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Re: XAO Analysis
It's more of a technical point of view, actually. Looking at the daily closing numbers, we have now touched ~6780 a 2nd time and then fell away from it. Ok, it's only been a week, since this has happened, so it's too early to make this call, but it's looking like there may be a chance that we won't break this mark for a while.
Still, stepping away from the (absolute beginner's) technical view, I still think that the worst is yet to come. I've been informed by an ex-fund manager that this is just the tip of the iceberg. The US housing numbers are on the way down as well. I've read articles which have the hypothesis that share market down turns would follow housing down turns. I'm not sure how valid this is, but I read it more than 6 months ago.
I also wouldn't take in too much of the large profits from a few of the companies. e.g. Intel. A short term market correction would not change the demand for computer chips, and they would still sell bucket loads of them where the economy is growing (i.e. China, India). Besides, their products would have to go from their factory -> wholesaler -> retailer/computer shop, which means if there's a downturn in consumer spendings, they wouldn't notice it back at Intel for at least a month or 2.
It would also be interesting to see where the money is coming from for the banks. If the profits are still unrealised and sitting in illiquid asset, well, personally, I wouldn't really count them as profit. If, in the worst case, the market crashes, they'll need a lot of luck finding a buyer for those assets at a reasonable price.
Of course, there are positive signs as well. China is still buying commodities like there's no tomorrow, if the current price and fx trends persist, I've been told that we could start up a smelter operation, melt the 5/10/20c coins, and sell them as scrap metal to make a profits because the scrap metal would be worth more than the face value of the coins.
It's more of a technical point of view, actually. Looking at the daily closing numbers, we have now touched ~6780 a 2nd time and then fell away from it. Ok, it's only been a week, since this has happened, so it's too early to make this call, but it's looking like there may be a chance that we won't break this mark for a while.
Still, stepping away from the (absolute beginner's) technical view, I still think that the worst is yet to come. I've been informed by an ex-fund manager that this is just the tip of the iceberg. The US housing numbers are on the way down as well. I've read articles which have the hypothesis that share market down turns would follow housing down turns. I'm not sure how valid this is, but I read it more than 6 months ago.
I also wouldn't take in too much of the large profits from a few of the companies. e.g. Intel. A short term market correction would not change the demand for computer chips, and they would still sell bucket loads of them where the economy is growing (i.e. China, India). Besides, their products would have to go from their factory -> wholesaler -> retailer/computer shop, which means if there's a downturn in consumer spendings, they wouldn't notice it back at Intel for at least a month or 2.
It would also be interesting to see where the money is coming from for the banks. If the profits are still unrealised and sitting in illiquid asset, well, personally, I wouldn't really count them as profit. If, in the worst case, the market crashes, they'll need a lot of luck finding a buyer for those assets at a reasonable price.
Of course, there are positive signs as well. China is still buying commodities like there's no tomorrow, if the current price and fx trends persist, I've been told that we could start up a smelter operation, melt the 5/10/20c coins, and sell them as scrap metal to make a profits because the scrap metal would be worth more than the face value of the coins.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Jo
If your up mate, your target has been met NOW!
Heavy selling in the US tonight, congrats on the short, looks to be a big winner....
Cheers
Reece
Jo
If your up mate, your target has been met NOW!
Heavy selling in the US tonight, congrats on the short, looks to be a big winner....
Cheers
Reece
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Re: XAO Analysis
200 points down at lunchtime...man i'm going to start looking at tea leaves for the answer
still a long way from 87
200 points down at lunchtime...man i'm going to start looking at tea leaves for the answer
still a long way from 87
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Re: XAO Analysis
It's virtually impossible for a repeat of 87. After all, it was helped by the first generation of computer trading.
Still, look at where we are now. If you pulled everything out when the markets hit the bottom in August, you are still very likely to be worse off then being remaining fully invested and then selling, say, on Monday when it opens.
It's virtually impossible for a repeat of 87. After all, it was helped by the first generation of computer trading.
Still, look at where we are now. If you pulled everything out when the markets hit the bottom in August, you are still very likely to be worse off then being remaining fully invested and then selling, say, on Monday when it opens.
Re: XAO Analysis
What type of reaction or correction will we see Monday in response to the American market fall?
What type of reaction or correction will we see Monday in response to the American market fall?
Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
Sheep will jump off the cliff.
Wolves will take advantage.....
Probably 1.5 - 2 %.
Sheep will jump off the cliff.
Wolves will take advantage.....
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