XAO Technical Analysis

[SevenFX]

Re: XAO Analysis

Futures closed the evening session @ 6591, so you would expect the XJO to be at about 6560-6565 at monday's open.

Personally, I'm expecting to see some longs puking up their positions right on open monday morning, followed by a pretty quick, but savage short covering rally in the first half hour before the main trend of the day asserts itself, which could go either way. It'll be a good test for the bulls- they've run it up very hard since the August lows.

Morning Professor.

Just few questions on your post..

Are you expecting to see the bargin hunters step in early (perhaps missing August Lows, & now being confident from August rally) to buy in early... only to get slaughtered by overall selloff.

The SPI seems to be pointing to a big gap down, so would not thing it will even come close to closing gap...is that your view...????

Also would you say there's a weak chance of closing UP (green day) and more likely chance of closing further down and your reasons would be appreciated.

Thanks
SevenFX

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks Joseph,

It took an extra 3/5 trading days(SP500/XAO) than we first anticipated and had me scratching my head there for a while but looks like producing the goods now.

We have had a pretty good run with the movements indices since July and when the "Master Of Time" - Magdoran re emerges we will have even more resources from which draw from. But for now, we are looking at mid November as the next important date and then Feb-March 2008 thereafter.

Cheers

Hi waves
Miners time routines both have the end of this month/beginning of next month as potentially important, followed by another window in mid-November.
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi waves
Miners time routines both have the end of this month/beginning of next month as potentially important, followed by another window in mid-November.
Cheers
..........Kauri

Hello Kauri, Miners routines look to be quite impressive in the right hands. There is no doubt IMO that all highs and lows in the market are proportions of previous ones both in time and price and as such are related mathematically.

The only problems here are:

-which are the signifacant ones?
-We can also end up with too many possibilities and it's up to us as traders to reduce the number of possibilities and stack the probabilities in our favour

Not 100% sure how Miners routines work but I dare say the try to acheive some of the above which can make them quite useful.

I guess an in depth knowledge OF EW can also help a lot here.

Cheers

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hello Kauri, Miners routines look to be quite impressive in the right hands. There is no doubt IMO that all highs and lows in the market are proportions of previous ones both in time and price and as such are related mathematically.

The only problems here are:

-which are the signifacant ones?
-We can also end up with too many possibilities and it's up to us as traders to reduce the number of possibilities and stack the probabilities in our favour

Not 100% sure how Miners routines work but I dare say the try to acheive some of the above which can make them quite useful.

I guess an in depth knowledge OF EW can also help a lot here.

Cheers

Waves,
Here is the latest Miner DTP report, is in its raw form, to try to get the significant points I filter out the results to show..i.e. only those points that come in with a score of 50+..
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[juw177]

Re: XAO Analysis

we were down -150 points early morning and this has bounced back already by 10:30 to -125 points. I know technically, this has more to fall, but that quick bounce has got to count for something??

 

[SevenFX]

Re: XAO Analysis

we were down -150 points early morning and this has bounced back already by 10:30 to -125 points. I know technically, this has more to fall, but that quick bounce has got to count for something??

IMO it traded sideways at open, found a uptrend, now enteraining a reversal...so no real direction while the buyers n sellers slug it out...

SevenFX

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

Waves,
Here is the latest Miner DTP report, is in its raw form, to try to get the significant points I filter out the results to show..i.e. only those points that come in with a score of 50+..
Cheers
.........Kauri

Thanks Kauri,

Looks to be quite a powerful software.

 

[nikki]

Re: XAO Analysis

xjo is looking awfully dangerous. it is dancing around 6555 - with asia trading at more than 3% drop and future for the DJIA looking - i think this afternoon is going to be ugly!!!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XAO Analysis

xjo is looking awfully dangerous. it is dancing around 6555 - with asia trading at more than 3% drop and future for the DJIA looking - i think this afternoon is going to be ugly!!!

yep,...... run for the hills!

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

My take on the (XAO) is to still take a bullish outlook, UNTIL the wave structure is confirmed as a corrective Wave A,B,C advance. Therefore, this will be confirmed, only when the current wave (4), breaks through the top of the extended Wave (1), being at 6358. The likelihood of this occuring has increased somewhat after Wall Street's horrid Friday session so the retracement tommorow will be important. I am personally looking for support tommorow at 6570, being the typical Wave (4) 38.2% retracement level. If this hold's, who know's, but it is a good level to go off.

If the market can bounce straight off these levels it will be very bullish, however if it doesnt and continues falling, the 6358 level must be watched like a hawk. The three retracement lines are the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% of the Wave (3) advance.

I agree with Lachlan, we are still bullish.

I differ in that I don't think this recent high can be a wave 3, not only is it shorter in length than wave one (which is fine as long as wave 5 is shorter than wave 3), but it just seems too short in this bull market.It does subdivide nicely into 5 waves so I am thinking that we are subdividing now and if prices do continue up, we will get a long extended wave 3.

I think that we can go down to 6400 and still remain bullish.

We were 2 or 3 days out on the time projection for a reversal, so pretty good.

The next important time projection is 15th November, not sure what this will be, but at the moment leaning towards another impulse higher.

 

[SevenFX]

Re: XAO Analysis

yep,...... run for the hills!

WHAT and leave you to make all the profits... LOL

Not much range here as triangle tightens, so perhaps a rally mid arvo.

 

[Awesomandy]

Re: XAO Analysis

WHAT and leave you to make all the profits... LOL

Not much range here as triangle tightens, so perhaps a rally mid arvo.

I agree. It as gapped down rather horribly in the morning, but by 9:20am, the up trend was taking place already. I note that the HSI is doing something similar. It gapped down at open, but now has recovered to be only around 800 points down. Unless there are further bad news, I don't think there are going to be much down side in the next 24 hours.

(Sorry, no charts. Work internet is very restrictive.)

 

[CanOz]

Re: XAO Analysis

Again though, same old story, watch out for the Yen, unless theres not much much left to unwind, its hitting fresh highs against major FX.

Cheers,

 

[Lachlan6]

Re: XAO Analysis

The XAO is sitting at a very interesting point at the moment. Suffice to say the law of alternation is occuring here as the wave (4) can now be considered as a possible zig-zag corrective wave, as opposed to the flat corrective wave (2). In terms of retracement's, it is spot on the 38.2% level from the base of wave (2) and 1.618x the wave a. If the market reverses from here back upward, look for much higher levels. If it continues lower, see my earlier post.

 

[evwatkins]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just had a bit of a browse, Dow futures are -112

 

[professor_frink]

Re: XAO Analysis

Morning Professor.

Just few questions on your post..

Are you expecting to see the bargin hunters step in early (perhaps missing August Lows, & now being confident from August rally) to buy in early... only to get slaughtered by overall selloff.

The SPI seems to be pointing to a big gap down, so would not thing it will even come close to closing gap...is that your view...????

Also would you say there's a weak chance of closing UP (green day) and more likely chance of closing further down and your reasons would be appreciated.

Thanks
SevenFX

Sorry SevenFX, was busy this morning and didn't get a chance to reply. Basically it all boils down to the size of the gap. When they are this big, we will close higher than we open more often than not.

As far as covering the gap, I'd be very surprised if we did that this afternoon, or even tomorrow for that matter.

Cheers

 

[nizar]

Re: XAO Analysis

Basically it all boils down to the size of the gap. When they are this big, we will close higher than we open more often than not

I think its important to understand what the open really is.

The level of the XAO at 10:00am when the ASX opens is not really a true indication of the "open" because most of the companies haven't began trading at.

So while 10:00-10:08 often appears to be a trend its not an accurate one.

The actual opening this morning (at 10:08) was about 6550 for the XAO.
Will we get a white candle. I think so.

 

[nikki]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just had a bit of a browse, Dow futures are -112

I have not seen the Dow futures reverse 112 points so i think we are in for a rought night. However, the Dow futures at this time of the day always reflects what other Asian indices are doing particularly the Nikkei.

Good luck to all.

 

[Awesomandy]

Re: XAO Analysis

but by 9:20am...

I meant 10:20am. I blame it on the Monday.
*smack head on desk*

 

[professor_frink]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think its important to understand what the open really is.

The level of the XAO at 10:00am when the ASX opens is not really a true indication of the "open" because most of the companies haven't began trading at.

So while 10:00-10:08 often appears to be a trend its not an accurate one.

The actual opening this morning (at 10:08) was about 6550 for the XAO.
Will we get a white candle. I think so.

sorry, just to clarify, I was referring to the SPI in my previous post