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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
PK, you probably could say a little more.....Why do you think we're hitting all time highs when US recession is highly probably? And for that matter, why has the US recovered so quickly to support our market?
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trembling Hand said:
Bear in mind not in action is probably a straight jacket not a bear suit.

I would thing there are stacks of people on the side lines here. Just waiting for "confirmation" that we are not going to crash 87 style. Just to sucker them in closer to the top than a good bottom.
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I think the bad data was already expected and priced into the market, and now that they have been confirmed, it appears that there are hopes that interest rates may be lowered further. The result seems to be that the fund managers have taken a shopping trip.

I think the market will have to adjust sooner or later (and my gut feeling is that it is probably very soon), so I'm a bear in that sense. However, while some people (esp. hedge funds) are still trying to milk the very last drop of goodness from the current trend, I might as well join in for the ride. :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

powerkoala said:
so are we in the new bull trend or "few" ppl trying to make us think we are (the ppt maybe) ? :eek:
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In short I doubt anyone knows the answer to that question. I'd like a weekly close at all-time-highs, at the high of the bar with a decent range, well clear of any previous support levels to be comfortable saying we're off again. What is worth noticing is that in spite of attempts to draw correlation between our market and the US/Europe it is quite clear that our market is it's own entity. Don't get me wrong...there is extreme correlation between world equity markets, and as a rubber band stretches we're probably not going to ever draw too far away from some amount of anchoring to the US...but given that we're so resources heavy as an economy it only stands to reason that events in those markets have a disproportionate effect on our parochial little market.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Awesomandy said:
I think the bad data was already expected and priced into the market, and now that they have been confirmed, it appears that there are hopes that interest rates may be lowered further. The result seems to be that the fund managers have taken a shopping trip.

I think the market will have to adjust sooner or later (and my gut feeling is that it is probably very soon), so I'm a bear in that sense. However, while some people (esp. hedge funds) are still trying to milk the very last drop of goodness from the current trend, I might as well join in for the ride. :)
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The posturings of some of us in this thread have turned out to be hot air at the moment and nothing else.I would like to say that your analysis so far is a well thought one.While negative events are still to occur,the effects they will have on the market would appear to be minimal given the response to the ones that have already taken place not only by the Fed and financial institutions,but foreign investors as well.All I can see now is another bubble to be dealt with somewhere in the future.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
You talking about Aus or US market Snake? Some commentators are saying the US is already in recession, or parts of it anyway. Just not Wall Street perhaps!
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I was talking about the US Kennas. There is no official recession regardless of what the doomsayers are saying. How are you hedging? With CFD's?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

FWIW, a few of my indicators are indicating? a 'tapering' or overbought situation. Consolidation or pullback soon? Full moon tonight?:D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Uncle Festivus said:
FWIW, a few of my indicators are indicating? a 'tapering' or overbought situation. Consolidation or pullback soon? Full moon tonight?:D
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Odd that, because mine are suggesting that the blue chips are breaking out left, right and centre, with the mid caps perhaps following suit tomorrow.

I think it's important to note that the performance of the index of late has been almost purely due to BHP. If we get others joining in, it could get pretty spectacular.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Odd that, because mine are suggesting that the blue chips are breaking out left, right and centre, with the mid caps perhaps following suit tomorrow.

I think it's important to note that the performance of the index of late has been almost purely due to BHP. If we get others joining in, it could get pretty spectacular.
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Yes, it's very bullish, but a few indexs are having trouble keeping up with the action eg XDJ, so as you say, is it a case of the rest of the market staging a catch up rally too or the leaders to have a breather? From the low of the correction to today is nearly a 20% gain I recall from memory, stand corrected? Either way, a breathtaking advance all the same to levels where a few of the bobble head stockbrokers were saying we were due for a 'healthy' correction only a few weeks ago in the midst of the 'correction we had to have'?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Uncle Festivus said:
Full moon tonight?:D
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It was 2 nights ago, actually, so it looks like the werewolfs bought into the market. :D

chops_a_must said:
I think it's important to note that the performance of the index of late has been almost purely due to BHP.
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Yes, that's is quite worrying, I think. If we take BHP out of the index last week, XAO would be at least 40 - 50 points lower than what it is currently. Having said that, however, the market is stronger today as a whole, after the 100 points rise in the US last night.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Where have all the crash like 1987 Bears gone?
Where have all the comparison charts from previous crashes gone???
 
Re: XAO Analysis

in denial TH

teddysg5.png


as soon as that pennant broke to the upside the bears had no choice but to go to ground
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
Where have all the crash like 1987 Bears gone?
Where have all the comparison charts from previous crashes gone???
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Still waiting, actually.
The XAO has gone about 20% up bottom to top in the past 45 days, and that's quite scary, in terms of how high it has went, and how things will be when somebody realises, whoops, this is perhaps a little bit too high.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting to read this thread now. Today I got a bit worried and cashed the portfolio - down to three holdings now (BHP, SMX, BNB). That was before I found this thread tonight.

I gotta admit, it feels scary up here - the charts look solid enough, but, well, it IS a long way down if the market decides to drop. So I'm taking a rest for a couple of weeks and looking for a new strategy. But on the bright side, the air up here is great! And the ride has been spectacular! :)

Mid caps do have potential as the earlier poster suggested, but I'm looking for any selections to hold long in case it does go. Suggestions and reasons?

Bithead

PS. if it does go down, I'll jump deeper into BHP...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
Looks they will be making a come back soon TH ;)
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What I find interesting is it seems that many have missed out on one of the best moves in recent times because of Fear. I would imagine that most punters here can get in slowly and out in an instant but many have watched this rise for weeks and done nothing but call themselves Bears. Now as we top out with a good chance to drop hard if the "market" doesnt like the US jobs reports they have gone quiet and will probably not short anything until we have a nasty down day if at all.

It would nice to hear from a Bear that has actually shorted something rather than someone who is all cash. Not meaning to be a ****hole just don't think that is all that Bearish but rather paralysis.
 
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