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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
What I find interesting is it seems that many have missed out on one of the best moves in recent times because of Fear. I would imagine that most punters here can get in slowly and out in an instant but many have watched this rise for weeks and done nothing but call themselves Bears. Now as we top out with a good chance to drop hard if the "market" doesnt like the US jobs reports they have gone quiet and will probably not short anything until we have a nasty down day if at all.

It would nice to hear from a Bear that has actually shorted something rather than someone who is all cash. Not meaning to be a ****hole just don't think that is all that Bearish but rather paralysis.
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Good points TH,

I was in and out long on the xjo during the recent rises also long a fair amount on the AUD/USD

But i missed alot of the move due to my need to run in and out, was it fear or inexperience a bit of both but the other day i looked at that move and thought jeez that was 800+ points a massive move.

I am short on the xjo from 11.30 also just went short on the AUD/USD.

will it crash i don't know.

one more point,

this move up was a massive hope run in my opinion we smashed the us in drive due to the BHP issue that really drove us up last couple weeks! yes there were normal continuation points in the trend, but it was still a impulse from the low that got fueled and fueled. that is my 2cents.......
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Last couple of weeks BHP and CBA have rallied quite well..

Together they make up 14.54% of the XAO index (9.8% and 4.74% capitalisation respectively), and today they both fell quite significantly.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
But i missed alot of the move due to my need to run in and out, was it fear or inexperience a bit of both but the other day i looked at that move and thought jeez that was 800+ points a massive move.
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I think that the size and speed of the recent move is quite rare, so I wouldn't say that you have done something wrong. In fact, those who would've stayed long in the market for the whole duration is either very smart, very brave and/or very stupid. The fact is, you have identified some opportunities, and you have put your money where your mouth is, so that's pretty well done in my books.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
Maybe XAO finds support at the previous highs of 6450? It was resistance for a while.

Then away again?
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Will be interesting to see won't it Niz, because I'm wondering if thats where we'll diverge from he DOW:eek:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Awesomandy said:
I think that the size and speed of the recent move is quite rare, so I wouldn't say that you have done something wrong. In fact, those who would've stayed long in the market for the whole duration is either very smart, very brave and/or very stupid. The fact is, you have identified some opportunities, and you have put your money where your mouth is, so that's pretty well done in my books.
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Cheers Andy,

We will see how the next few days work out.

If you look at the chart there where some text book entry's on the daily and on smaller time frames. I am not talking about day trading 4 hour is the lowest time frame i look at on the charts these days.

there was a band/range on the daily, the rate cut was a ripper entry broke minor range and showed buyer push, then BHP backed it very nicely!

I have only been looking at charts from 08/05 that last move up and down is the biggest market moves I have ever seen. from looking at bottoms in sell offs. It did not look right to me from the angle of assent. but it held out based and broke out again so now i am thinking that its a very new learning experience for us all. That break of the bottom held no doubt about that. But now we are here can it be sustained.

Good trading Andy.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Will we ignore the sell-off in the US overnight again today? The SPI came back from an overnight high of 6897:)eek:) to 6800, so my bet is we'll see the XAO come off a fair bit too today. Then again, nothing would surprise me in the current climate though.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

the usual Friday profit -taking should happen would'nt be surprised if there is a fair bit wiped off today:p:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

So whats the consensus for the forthcomming week?:confused:

By trading/investing will be based around:

- a positive monday
- with 2 weeks of consolidation at these index levels

A bout of profit taking may dampen early Nov:banghead:, but Dec looks like shaping up as a corker :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Gekko said:
So whats the consensus for the forthcomming week?:confused:

By trading/investing will be based around:

- a positive monday
- with 2 weeks of consolidation at these index levels

A bout of profit taking may dampen early Nov:banghead:, but Dec looks like shaping up as a corker :D
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Gekko,
You fail to explain your predictions,particularly why December is shaping up to be a CORKER.I presume you mean that the index is going to soar into the sky.I have learnt a lesson over the past 8 weeks.Predicting the market is impossible.If you have got it right,then it can be called a fluke."I told you so," is a phrase that should not be connected to the stock market.
No doubt,Monday should be positive.The Dow went up after our last trade on Friday and this is enough impetus to give our market a push.
"A bout of profit taking may dampen early November."It may dampen any day or days well before then.
Are these predictions or are you forearmed with knowledge that we all would like to know?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Did the XAO really hit 6800 today? WTF!! :eek:

'Perhaps we'll find a way out of this correction?' LOL :)

Can't keep running away like this.

MACD on this chart just starting to fall over maybe.

Support back there, which looks pretty strong to me....
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

This is a concern! It smells of a correction or at least some significant profit taking, what will it be greed or sence?

Cheers


BT


Downgrades Continue In Market
FN Arena News - October 16 2007
By Greg Peel

As the local stock market has hit new highs, FNArena has specifically been following the recent spate of analyst downgrades of stock recommendations. From October 5 to 12, the count was 29 downgrades to 12 upgrades, and when only ASX 200 stocks are considered that count was 24 to 6.
After two more days trading, another 17 stocks have been downgraded by analysts, with 8 upgrades. Removing non-ASX 200 companies, the count is 11 to 5.

To summarise, overall down/upgrades since October 5 are running at 46:20 while the ASX 200 ratio is 35:11. Some stocks have been down/upgraded by more than one broker.

In almost every case, the main reason cited for the downgrade was a share price that had run too far beyond valuation. In almost every upgrade case the story was the same, only opposite.

New stocks to hit the downgrade team in the ASX 200 are AED Oil (AED), Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), Emeco Holdings ((EHL)), St George Bank ((SGB)), Westpac Bank ((WBC)) and Zinifex ((ZFX)). Outside the ASX 200 were AJ Lucas ((AJL)) and Treasury Group ((TRG)).
New stocks on the upgrade side are Crane Group ((CRG)), Metcash ((MTS)) and GWA International ((GWT)).

There were three downgrades and three upgrades for AGL Energy ((AGK)) this morning, meaning that stock came out neutral after a company specific profit downgrade and subsequent share price fall. Publishing & Broadcasting ((PBL)) downgrades continue following demerger uncertainty. The AED downgrade was anticipation of a lower oil price, while Macquarie put the sword to BHP Billiton ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) yesterday. Citi has been responsible for today's bank downgrades in an overall review of valuations.

As the ASX 200 crosses into negative 1% territory again this afternoon, it is fair to say today has been the first down-day of any significance since the Fed interest rate cut. This has followed a similar session in the US where analysts there, too, are beginning to suggest a pullback might be healthy. The Australian rally has been fuelled mostly by stronger commodity prices, which in turn have been fuelled largely by a weaker US dollar. Analysts at GSJB Were note there is "an almost universally positive sentiment" towards the resource sector at present.

Universally held opinions are always dangerous.

Weres highlights a shift away from mature G7 economies and into emerging market economies. (The analysts say "and Australia", but given Australia's success is derived from emerging markets you might as well call it an EM as well.) Before today the Hang Seng is up 44% year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite 122%, and the ASX 200 Resources 52%.

In Australia, industrial valuations are now back in the "extreme" zone, notes Weres, with the resource sector trading at a PE of 15x compared to the long term industrial average of 14.7x. Resource stocks usually trade at much lower PEs than their industrial counterparts because of commodity price volatility. Australian stocks are currently being "priced for perfection", notes Weres, suggesting no risk is being built in at all.

While China looks scary at 23x, PE s are backed up by 21% expected earnings growth. Such growth expectation is not the case in Australia, where industrial PEs are at 17.2x (over the 14.7x average). The inflation-adjusted figure is 19.7x, which is even more alarming given inflation risk is increasing.

Small cap PEs are higher than large cap.

GSJB Were is advising a pullback to a Neutral stance on resource stocks.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I just love it.

When the market starts to look the least bit shaky again the bulls flock to this thread looking for answers!!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
I just love it.

When the market starts to look the least bit shaky again the bulls flock to this thread looking for answers!!
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Quite interesting, we are at all time highs, just had the slightest of pullbacks and people are talking 87 again.

I don't think it would take much of an effort for the pros to take money from the mums and dads.It happened in August and will probably happen again.;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I think I've seen history.I cannot recall seeing the All Ords rise over 1%
after a negative lead from Wall Street overnight.Yes?No?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sassa said:
I think I've seen history.I cannot recall seeing the All Ords rise over 1%
after a negative lead from Wall Street overnight.Yes?No?
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what negative lead from wall street? did you see the strong buying when the DJIA and S&P were both down nearly 1% in the afternoon (US time).

the DJIA reversed after hitting resistance at around 13800. :2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Still, it needs to go up again tomorrow. We don't really want to have a resistance forming at the all time (closing) high of 6779.6.
 
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