XAO Technical Analysis

[IFocus]

Re: XAO Analysis

This is a chart XAO monthly semi log

Not trying to alarm, I am not a bear valuations at the top end don’t suit a serious crash but you never know emotion is a powerful driver.

The real support is 3500 to turn this move into a real bear market that needs to be broken I think.

Pink lines are the 50% / 61.8 % Fib retracements, running the fib over the chart it tends to fit quite nicely which increase’s the probability that it may mean some thing.

One last thought, I have friends who have used fundaments successfully over a long time (think early 80’s) absolutely love these types of conditions. You know 1987, the Russian / Asian / 9/11 etc things. They keep a list of company’s they want to own with entry prices they think is beyond reason but reachable in a falling market driven by fear.
In other words they have a trading plan to steer them through such occasions made out long before.

I am not that clever and can only trade what the chart is telling me now……

Hope this helps
Focus

 

[Awesomandy]

Re: XAO Analysis

No way Andy.

The fish will still be there next week but the markets don`t often act like this.

Tryng to take in as much as possible, and cheers for all the informed commentary and analysis on this thread

Glued to the screen

Of course, it's definitely a good idea to stay around to learn as much as we can. My previous comment refers more to the monetary side of things rather than its literal meanings - just keep the cash out of the market for those who don't trade on volatility. (Well, it appears that my brain is in its usual Friday afternoon mode)

I'm still at work, so no charts here, but if you look at the intra-day chart today, it looks a bit more like a chart of 3 months worth of action - a descending triangle has formed, with support at ~5650.

And, if you ignore the spikes at the start of the day, you can also see a downward channel, with multiple lower highs and lower lows.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Because the DOW last night still fell in the red... We should just call all the markets around the world The Dow Jones...

Haven't you been paying attention Insider? Its The Muppet Index. The S&P500 actually closed up .32%, which is why the Dow has been unofficially renamed.

 

[insider]

Re: XAO Analysis

Haven't you been paying attention Insider? Its The Muppet Index. The S&P500 actually closed up .32%, which is why the Dow has been unofficially renamed.

hehehe... well it seems the muppets are the puppeteers... but of course I was serious about the whole renaming thing

 

[Awesomandy]

Re: XAO Analysis

I wonder if it means anything, but the XAO and XJO are now in parity again. They closed at 5670.3 and 5671 respectively. As discussed earlier, we could see that the XJO dropping more each time there was a fall in the past couple of months, but now, XJO has recovered, and is now in parity with XAO again. So, if we assume that the earlier discussions to be correct, can we now say that the smart money is back into the market (and may be even that the bull is going to recover)?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XAO Analysis

I wonder if it means anything, but the XAO and XJO are now in parity again. They closed at 5670.3 and 5671 respectively. As discussed earlier, we could see that the XJO dropping more each time there was a fall in the past couple of months, but now, XJO has recovered, and is now in parity with XAO again. So, if we assume that the earlier discussions to be correct, can we now say that the smart money is back into the market (and may be even that the bull is going to recover)?

maybe due to the fact that the top stocks lost so much and became very attractive to bargain hunters.

look out, monday looks like a buying fest!

 

[GreatPig]

Re: XAO Analysis

Maybe a spike open then a drop off?

Love to have the time to sit and play with it, but I have to work, and the NAB trading platform will likely be too slow again to be able to safely trade fast moving prices anyway.

GP

 

[Jadefox]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks Tech, as you say the fib level might well be important. Not just from an EW viewpoint but togther with the confluence of other methodologies too.

My thinking is this market has made a capitulation low today or if it hasn't then will do in 2-3 days after a few minor subdivsions are mopped up. Perhaps use this as springboard for a countertrend rally into late Sept/early October before another major wave C leg takes hold on the downside. There seems to be a major timecycle termination in November which might finish this leg down.

Cheers

\

Waves,

Which timecycle period are you refering to?

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

\

Waves,

Which timecycle period are you refering to?

This is an overlap period of various cycles as follows:-

-19 Year 5 month cycle
-4 year Cycle
-1 Year Cycle
-4 Month cycle
-1 Month cycle


to name but some

The same overlap period was evident for the peak, that is also a reason why this fall was expected approx this year by those that use this method of cycles.

The 19 year cycle(Metonic) is everywhere you look in markets. For example look at Gold that peaked in 1980 and bottomed in 1999. The last stockmarket crash was in 1987 this one now is just over 19 years and 5 months later. Aussie dollar topped in 1988 and now again 19 years and 5 months approx after

 

[springhill]

Re: XAO Analysis

The last stockmarket crash was in 1987 this one now is just over 19 years and 5 months later.

Little too soon to be calling this one a crash IMO
Call it a crash when it actually crashes .... for now its a correction

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

Little too soon to be calling this one a crash IMO
Call it a crash when it actually crashes .... for now its a correction

Just gave some examples of the cycle length, for some I am sure it feels like a crash

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just gave some examples of the cycle length, for some I am sure it feels like a crash

lol yes , especially all those muppets that where/are leveraged up to the eye balls - Guess thats the benefits of going pty ltd

 

[insider]

Re: XAO Analysis

lol yes , especially all those muppets that where/are leveraged up to the eye balls - Guess thats the benefits of going pty ltd

I was going through a magazine a full page ad for CFD's was in there... "with as little as $300 you will have a $10,000 Buying Power using leverage with us" I'm 50% sure this is not just any correction... i know of Push Bike Couriers that invested in Uranium... What a laugh, I think this is a signal to get out while we're ahead... just my opinion

 

[Jadefox]

Re: XAO Analysis

This is an overlap period of various cycles as follows:-

-19 Year 5 month cycle
-4 year Cycle
-1 Year Cycle
-4 Month cycle
-1 Month cycle


to name but some

The same overlap period was evident for the peak, that is also a reason why this fall was expected approx this year by those that use this method of cycles.

The 19 year cycle(Metonic) is everywhere you look in markets. For example look at Gold that peaked in 1980 and bottomed in 1999. The last stockmarket crash was in 1987 this one now is just over 19 years and 5 months later. Aussie dollar topped in 1988 and now again 19 years and 5 months approx after

Thanks Waves

 

[springhill]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm 50% sure this is not just any correction... i know of Push Bike Couriers that invested in Uranium... What a laugh, I think this is a signal to get out while we're ahead... just my opinion

I guess that means you are 50% sure that it IS just a correction .... and you think this is a signal to stay in. Talk about having a foot in both camps!! No disrespect intended

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

I guess that means you are 50% sure that it IS just a correction .... and you think this is a signal to stay in. Talk about having a foot in both camps!! No disrespect intended

Only one problem, by the time most decide this more than a correction, it will be too late. So next couple months/weeks will be a time for decision for most. Will a rally bring a buying opportunity OR will it simply be the last chance to sell before getting cleaned up by another leg down?

Good luck......

 

[Awesomandy]

Re: XAO Analysis

Only one problem, by the time most decide this more than a correction, it will be too late. So next couple months/weeks will be a time for decision for most. Will a rally bring a buying opportunity OR will it simply be the last chance to sell before getting cleaned up by another leg down?

Good luck......

The way I see it is that, it's probably best to sell now. Even if the market rebounces now, it will still have its down days. If it's a crash, then you've sold out, and it's not too bad. If it trades in a range, either you'll have to trade on the volatility, or you would make more money in a bank. If it goes up again, it is still going to be quite volatile, and then it would just be a matter of picking the next low in the uptrend to reenter the market. There is an off-chance of the market just shoots up to levels in the past, but given that the credit problems won't be solved overnight, I see this scenario as extremely unlikely.

 

[CFD]

Re: XAO Analysis

~~
The 19 year cycle(Metonic) is everywhere you look in markets. For example look at Gold that peaked in 1980 and bottomed in 1999. The last stockmarket crash was in 1987 this one now is just over 19 years and 5 months later. Aussie dollar topped in 1988 and now again 19 years and 5 months approx after

Hang on, you're giving credence to a 19 yr cycle when it's 19 yrs from peak to bottom, peak to peak and bottom to bottoms.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

it will be too late.

Already is!!

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

As I have posted previously the XAO getting ahead of the XJO was one of many warning signs to me that all was not well.... I notice that now they are both around the same level. Not withstanding the weightings etc the All Ords has by definition the ASX200 in it... so the main difference for mine is the XAO includes the more spec (relatively) issues in it. Does the fact that the XJO has now bridged the gap mean that money is flowing back into the top-end, and/or the small punters on the speccie stocks have got a dose of cold feet/ margin calls/liquidity problems of their own, and are bolting?? Time alone will tell, but I doubt that anyone who seriously trades the markets believes that this is the end of the problem.
On the Fed dropping the rate and the subsequent rally in the U.S markets, I suspect it was only making the rate official after they had actually effectively dropped the rate by injecting more cash/liquidity than was needed. A feel-good/confidence rally that ignores the fact that there are still the bulk of the worldwide mob that are still in up to their eyeballs in CDO type securities yet to go public on at least their involvement, let alone the depth of it. For a possible hint of the Feds actual thoughts on the Fed fund rate keep an eye on the actual rate compared to the Feds official rate, if they pump in more liquidity and keep it below the official rate, another cut may be on the cards, with the resultant "traders bonanza" knee-jerk market reaction....
Above are my fundementally challenged musings only after a hard night on the turps....
Cheers
....Kauri