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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
....... Time alone will tell, but I doubt that anyone who seriously trades the markets believes that this is the end of the problem......................... if they pump in more liquidity and keep it below the official rate, another cut may be on the cards, with the resultant "traders bonanza" knee-jerk market reaction.... Above are my fundementally challenged musings only after a hard night on the turps....
Cheers
....Kauri
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General consensus does seem to be more paain to follow over the coming months, but is that just people jumping on a bandwagon....there's still lots of noise and fear out there.....I agree, a full interest rate cut is on the cards, I wonder what GS will do? He seems confident that inflation is a bigger risk than US credit, and he knows more than me about tax and stuff......what's the budgie saying? ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
Not withstanding the weightings etc the All Ords has by definition the ASX200 in it... so the main difference for mine is the XAO includes the more spec (relatively) issues in it. Does the fact that the XJO has now bridged the gap mean that money is flowing back into the top-end, and/or the small punters on the speccie stocks have got a dose of cold feet/ margin calls/liquidity problems of their own, and are bolting??
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Kauri,

For mine it just seems like a bog standard, good ol' flight to quality. Happens anytime volitility rises in the market. The Fed cutting rates should (in the ST/MT) weigh down the US$ which is (historically) bullish for gold (traditional inverse relationship), which should also benefit from some fund inflows as treasuries change their hedging strategy away from the US$ to gold (especially if the Fed continues to cut rates in the coming months).

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
General consensus does seem to be more paain to follow over the coming months, but is that just people jumping on a bandwagon....there's still lots of noise and fear out there.....I agree, a full interest rate cut is on the cards, I wonder what GS will do? He seems confident that inflation is a bigger risk than US credit, and he knows more than me about tax and stuff......what's the budgie saying? ;)
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Hi Kennas,
The rate I am talking about is the Fed fund rate that affects interbank lending etc... separate to the FOMC interest rate....
The budgie.... hate to say it but he is currently taking a dive... thankfully he is a playfull bugger and not actually falling off the perch...

Cheers
...........Kauri
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Mofra said:
Kauri,

For mine it just seems like a bog standard, good ol' flight to quality. Happens anytime volitility rises in the market. The Fed cutting rates should (in the ST/MT) weigh down the US$ which is (historically) bullish for gold (traditional inverse relationship), which should also benefit from some fund inflows as treasuries change their hedging strategy away from the US$ to gold (especially if the Fed continues to cut rates in the coming months).

Cheers
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Flight to Quality???

Please point out to me when anybody EVER said anything else!!!

Eg "Flight to Crap"????
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
Hi Kennas,
The rate I am talking about is the Fed fund rate that affects interbank lending etc... separate to the FOMC interest rate....
The budgie.... hate to say it but he is currently taking a dive... thankfully he is a playfull bugger and not actually falling off the perch...

Cheers
...........Kauri
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IRT interest rates, yes, I knew what you meant, I shouldn't have linked my comments about Aus rates to it. I think the US Fed will drop rates but I do not think we will, unless it is more clear that our economy is being effected by the US thingy. You need to talk more to that budgie. Maybe give him some free range fly time! :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

CFD said:
Hang on, you're giving credence to a 19 yr cycle when it's 19 yrs from peak to bottom, peak to peak and bottom to bottoms.
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Yes, because this time analysis method is different. It's not measuring from peak to peak, valley to valley, as traditional cycles analysis is done. It's only concerned with points in time(highs or lows) relative to a fixed cycle such as calendar month, year etc. More imortantly it shows that there is order in the market as the same time points relative to the cycle repeat into the future.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

What do you guys think of the Hurricane? Does anyone think that there maybe an effect on the Markets if it gets its way with the 1000+ oil platforms?

Didn't buy anything today... I don't like the volumes... itsa a bit thin
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Magdoran said:
I’m going to be a gutsy here and say there should be temporary support tomorrow for the XAO, since it’s hit some key time angles – not strong support, but enough with such exhaustive moves that some key stocks look like they have exhaustion bars down.

I’m not saying the bear drive is over (although it may be for a while), but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some reversals and minor moves for some stocks for a couple of days.

If we do get a rally, there is the danger of a major lower high coming in signalling another leg down, but I have to say that I see conflicting patterns at this juncture.

In the weekly it just looks like it needs another leg up to complete… but this does not preclude a very strong bearish drive in the interim.

I suspect we’ll get a counter trend between tomorrow and early next week. How strong this is and if it can make a higher low will say a lot about this bear drive.

Regards


Magdoran
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Congratulations Mag on an great call! Even though, in hindsight, price skidded through your price support, time still worked. Now we have to see what clues we are given from here.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

insider said:
What do you guys think of the Hurricane? Does anyone think that there maybe an effect on the Markets if it gets its way with the 1000+ oil platforms?

Didn't buy anything today... I don't like the volumes... itsa a bit thin
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I was listening to a program from US financialsence
Anyway one of the guests said that this Hurricane will be a CAT 5 and it will head for the platforms. I think some platform supply 25% of US Natural gas.
Also on the Nymex just over a week ago the Natural Gas contract. The volume was huge, what you may see with a high/or low in the market and as he said it wasn't a high
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I am surprised to not see more discussion today re the XAO

The XAO opened at 5670 and closed at 5927 Thats a 257 point Rally! :eek:

Why the lack of chat? Cat caught a few Bears tongues? I'd imagine that quite a few were caught short today,

So what do we think a hard bouncing dead cat?

Or the bottom was found last week?

I don't think we're out of the woods just yet, but I reckon that the "Panic" has left the market, hell today was a clear sign that greed is still prevalent in the mkts
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Think that the dead cat died swallowing a super bouncy ball.Dont think it is finished yet though but should give peole who want(ME)the chance to get out of some duds and take a breather.Might only be paper losses but still hard to watch.One day last week I just walked away from the screen and spent the day in the sun and felt much better for it.Congratulations to those people who had the guts to buy in on Friday
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Volumes weren't too impressive today so have to be cautious about the upward move even though it was 257 points. The sub prime issue still hasn't gone away so still have to worry about that aswell. Agree that we are probably looking at a dead cat bounce. However IMO the bounce may last a few days barring any more hedge fund collapses in the meantime.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

BHP rallied 7.5% on 26m shares which is above avg volume ie not thin

I used this as a general indicator that most were rallying on avg to above avg buying,

Maybe its because BHP is reporting on Wednesday
 
Re: XAO Analysis

YOUNG_TRADER said:
I am surprised to not see more discussion today re the XAO

The XAO opened at 5670 and closed at 5927 Thats a 257 point Rally! :eek:

Why the lack of chat? Cat caught a few Bears tongues? I'd imagine that quite a few were caught short today,

So what do we think a hard bouncing dead cat?

Or the bottom was found last week?

I don't think we're out of the woods just yet, but I reckon that the "Panic" has left the market, hell today was a clear sign that greed is still prevalent in the mkts
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Lack of chat: Any experienced bears pretty much expect Fed/CB manipulation and/or short covering rallies... par for the course.

"I'd imagine that quite a few were caught short today": You betcha! Most try to short too late and get caught by these rallies.

Bottom found?: Who knows? But plenty of rot to work through yet and many (including me) remain convinced of impending recession. My City of London connections warn of nasty surprises to come, of which even they don't know the extent or location. Backrooms are weeks behind and nobody even knows their own true position.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

billhill said:
Volumes weren't too impressive today so have to be cautious about the upward move even though it was 257 points. The sub prime issue still hasn't gone away so still have to worry about that aswell. Agree that we are probably looking at a dead cat bounce. However IMO the bounce may last a few days barring any more hedge fund collapses in the meantime.
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Yes , a large move on the indices but the individual stocks watchlist made modest to neglible gains.Caution aplenty.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Lack of chat: Any experienced bears pretty much expect Fed/CB manipulation and/or short covering rallies... par for the course.

"I'd imagine that quite a few were caught short today": You betcha! Most try to short too late and get caught by these rallies.

Bottom found?: Who knows? But plenty of rot to work through yet and many (including me) remain convinced of impending recession. My City of London connections warn of nasty surprises to come, of which even they don't know the extent or location. Backrooms are weeks behind and nobody even knows their own true position.
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I have a sneaking suspicion that the recent Cut was simply there to post pone inevitable bankruptcies.. Maybe I'm being too skeptic... 1 day of gains or even a week is still no indication of the end of the turmoil... However in the short term there are plenty of opportunities to make cash... I don't want to risk holding over night...
 
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